Professor David B. Stephenson's Publications

For more info about me, please check out my profile page.

This list of publications is updated manually by myself so is a little out of date but useful if you require copies of any papers by clicking the underlined links or the local pdf links. Check out google scholar for a list of my citations or look at my publications on web of science:

_{Copyright Notice: Any articles made available for download are for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the copyright holder. Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and ed- ucational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged.}

2022

• Cummins DP, Stephenson DB, Stott PA. (2022) Could detection and attribution of climate change trends be spurious regression?, Clim Dyn, pages 1-15, DOI:10.1007/s00382-022-06242-z. PDF
• Eade R, Stephenson DB, Scaife AA, Smith DM. (2022) Quantifying the rarity of extreme multi-decadal trends: how unusual was the late twentieth century trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation?, Climate Dynamics, volume 58, no. 5-6, pages 1555-1568, DOI:10.1007/s00382-021-05978-4. PDF

2021

• Sansom PG, Stephenson DB, Bracegirdle TJ. (2021) On Constraining Projections of Future Climate Using Observations and Simulations From Multiple Climate Models, Journal of the American Statistical Association, volume 116, no. 534, pages 546-557, DOI:10.1080/01621459.2020.1851696. PDF
• Owen LE, Catto JL, Stephenson DB, Dunstone NJ. (2021) Compound precipitation and wind extremes over Europe and their relationship to extratropical cyclones, Weather and Climate Extremes, volume 33, pages 100342-100342, DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100342. PDF
• Owen LE, Catto JL, Dunstone NJ, Stephenson DB. (2021) How well can a seasonal forecast system represent three hourly compound wind and precipitation extremes over Europe?, Environmental Research Letters, volume 16, no. 7, pages 074019-074019, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac092e. PDF

2020

• Stoffel, M., DB Stephenson, JM Haywood (2020) Antipyretic Medication for a Feverish Planet Earth Systems and Environment, 1-6 PDF
• Cummins, D.P., D.B. Stephenson, and P.A. Stott (2020) A new energy-balance approach to linear filtering for estimating effective radiative forcing from temperature time series, Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography 6 (2), 91-102 PDF
• Cummins, D.P., D.B. Stephenson, and P.A. Stott (2020), Optimal estimation of stochastic energy balance model parameters, Journal of Climate, 33 (18), 7909-7926 PDF
• Pope, E.C.D., D.B. Stephenson, D.R. Jackson (2020) An adaptive Markov Chain approach for probabilistic forecasting of categorical events, Monthly Weather Review 148 (9), 3681-3691 PDF
• Hemri S, Bhend J, Liniger MA, Manzanas R, Siegert S, Stephenson DB, Gutiérrez JM, Brookshaw A, Doblas-Reyes FJ. (2020) How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts?, Climate Dynamics, volume 55, no. 5-6, pages 1141-1157 PDF
• Fosser, G., Kendon, E.J., Stephenson, D.B., and S. Tucker (2020): Convection‐Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections Geophysical Research Letters 47 (13), e2020GL088151 PDF

2019

• Sansom PG, Williamson DB, Stephenson DB. (2019) State space models for non‐stationary intermittently coupled systems: an application to the North Atlantic oscillation, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 68, Part5, pp.1259–1280 DOI:10.1111/rssc.12354. PDF
• Siegert, S., Ferro, C.A.T., Stephenson, D.B., and M. Leutbecher, (2019): The ensemble-adjusted Ignorance score for forecasts issued as normal distributions, Quart. J. of the Royal Met. Soc., 145 (Suppl. 1):129–139. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3447 PDF
• Pinto JG, Pantillon F, Ludwig P, Deroche M-S, Leoncini G, Raible CC, Shaffrey LC, Stephenson DB. (2019) From Atmospheric Dynamics to Insurance Losses: An Interdisciplinary Workshop on European Storms, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, volume 100, no. 6, pages ES175-ES178, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0026.1. PDF
• Stephenson, D.B. (2019): Climate Modelling. Chapter 23 in: Handbook of Environmental and Ecological Statistics (Editors: A.E. Gelfand, M. Fuentes, J.A. Hoeting, and R.L. Smith), Chapman and Hall/CRC, 854 pages. PDF
• Barnett RL, Bernatchez P, Garneau M, Brain MJ, Charman DJ, Stephenson DB, Haley S, Sanderson N (2019) Late Holocene sea-level changes in eastern Québec and potential drivers, Quarternary Science Reviews, 203, 151-169. PDF
• Siegert, S. and D.B. Stephenson (2019), Forecast recalibration and multi-model combination, In “Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting” Edited by A.W. Robertson and F. Vitart, Elsevier, 585 pp. PDF

2018

• Figueiredo, R., Martina, M.L., Stephenson, D. B. and Youngman, B.D. (2018), A Probabilistic Paradigm for the Parametric Insurance of Natural Hazards. Risk Analysis. doi:10.1111/risa.13122 PDF
• Dawkins, L. C. and Stephenson, D. B. (2018): Quantification of extremal dependence in spatial natural hazard footprints: independence of windstorm gust speeds and its impact on aggregate losses, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2933-2949, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2933-2018. PDF
• Beven, K. J., Almeida, S., Aspinall, W. P., Bates, P. D., Blazkova, S., Borgomeo, E., Freer, J., Goda, K., Hall, J. W., Phillips, J. C., Simpson, M., Smith, P. J., Stephenson, D. B., Wagener, T., Watson, M., and Wilkins, K. L. (2018): Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2741-2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018. PDF

2017

• Siegert S, Bellprat O, Ménégoz M, Stephenson DB, Doblas-Reyes FJ. (2017) Detecting improvements in forecast correlation skill: Statistical testing and power analysis, Monthly Weather Review, volume 145, no. 2, pages 437-450, DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0037.1. PDF
• Stephenson, D. B., A. Hunter, B. D. Youngman, and I. Cook. (2017) “Towards a more Dynamical Paradigm for Natural Catastrophe Risk Modelling. In “Risk Modelling for Hazards and Disasters”, Editor: Gero Michel, Elsevier, pp. 63-77. PDF

2016

• Stiller-Reeve MA, Stephenson DB, Spengler T. (2016) New Tools for Comparing Beliefs about the Timing of Recurrent Events with Climate Time Series Datasets, Weather Climate and Society, volume 8, no. 4, pages 493-506, DOI:10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0054.1. PDF
• Economou T, Stephenson DB, Rougier JC, Neal RA, Mylne KR. (2016) On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and physical sciences, volume 472, no. 2194, DOI:10.1098/rspa.2016.0295. PDF
• Simpson M, James R, Hall JW, Borgomeo E, Ives MC, Almeida S, Kingsborough A, Economou T, Stephenson DB, Wagener T. (2016) Decision Analysis for Management of Natural Hazards, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, volume 41, pages 15.1-15.28, DOI:10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-090011. PDF
• Dawkins LC, Stephenson DB, Lockwood JF, Maisey PE. (2016) The 21st century decline in damaging European windstorms, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, volume 16, no. 8, pages 1999-2007, DOI:10.5194/nhess-16-1999-2016. PDF
• Hewitt AJ, Sansom PG, Booth BBB, Jones CD, Robertson ES, Wiltshire AJ, Stephenson DB, Yip S. (2016) Sources of uncertainty in future projections of the carbon cycle, Journal of Climate, volume 29, pages 7203-7213, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0161.1. PDF
• Sansom PG, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Goddard L, Mason SJ. (2016) Best practices for post-processing ensemble climate forecasts, part I: selecting appropriate recalibration methods, Journal of Climate, volume 29, pages 7247-7264, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0868.1. PDF
• Siegert, S., Stephenson D.B., Sansom P.G., Scaife A.A., Eade R., and Arribas, A. (2016): A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability? J. Climate, 29(3), 995–1012. PDF
• Pinto JG, Ulbrich S, Economou T, Stephenson DB, Karrenman M, Shaffrey LC. (2016) Robustness of serial clustering of extra-tropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method, Tellus A, volume 68, DOI:10.3402/tellusa.v68.32204. PDF
• Youngman BD, Stephenson DB. (2016) A geostatistical extreme-value framework for fast simulation of natural hazard events, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, volume 472, no. 2189, DOI:10.1098/rspa.2015.0855. PDF
• Pianosi F, Beven K, Freer J, Hall JW, Rougier J, Stephenson DB, Wagener T. (2016) Sensitivity analysis of environmental models: A systematic review with practical workflow, Environmental Modelling and Software, volume 79, pages 214-232, DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.02.008. PDF
• Lowe R, Coelho CA, Barcellos C, Carvalho MS, Catão RC, Coelho GE, Ramalho WM, Bailey TC, Stephenson DB, Rodó X. (2016) Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil, eLife, article no. e11285, DOI:10.7554/eLife.11285. PDF
• Davidson JEH, Stephenson DB, Turasie AA. (2016) Time series modeling of paleoclimate data, Environmetrics, volume 27, no. 1, pages 55-65, DOI:10.1002/env.2373. PDF

2015

• Bracegirdle TJ, Stephenson DB, Turner J, Phillips T. (2015) The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation, Geophysical Research Letters, volume 42, no. 24, pages 10832-10839, DOI:10.1002/2015GL067055.
• Hunter, A., Stephenson, D.B., Economou, T., Holland, M. and I. Cook (2015), New perspectives on the aggregated risk of extratropical cyclones, Quart. J. of Royal Met. Soc., DOI:10.1002/qj.2649 PDF
• Economou, T., Stephenson, D.B, Pinto, J., Shaffrey, L.C., and G. Zappa (2015), Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations, Quart. J. of Royal Met. Soc., DOI:10.1002/qj.2591 PDF
• Sterk, A.E., D.B. Stephenson M.P. Holland K.R. Mylne (2015), On the predictability of extremes: does the butterfly effect ever decrease? Quart. J. of Royal Met. Soc., DOI:10.1002/qj.2627 PDF
• Mittermaier, M.P and D.B. Stephenson (2015): Inherent bounds on forecast accuracy due to observation uncertainty caused by temporal sampling, Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 143, pp. 4236-4243. DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0173.1 PDF
• Oldenborgh G.J, Stephenson, D.B., Sterl, A., Vautard, R., Yiou, R., Drifhout, S.S., von Storch, H., van den Dool, H., (2015), Drivers of the 2013/14 winter floods in the UK, Nature Climate Change, 5, 490-491. DOI:10.1038/nclimate2612 PDF
• Lowe R, Coelho C, Carvalho M, Barcellos C, Bailey TC, Stephenson D, Rodo X. (2015) Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts of epidemics, Lancet Infectious Diseases (Correspondence), Vol. 15 (1) p. 20., DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(14)71031-X PDF

2014

• Economou T, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT. (2014) Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms, Annals of Applied Statistics, volume 8, pages 2223-2246, DOI:10.1214/14-AOAS766. PDF
• Kwiatkowski, L, PR Halloran, PJ Mumby, DB Stephenson, (2014): What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature? Climate Dynamics, 1-14. DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1976-6 PDF
• Roberts, JF, AJ Champion, LC Dawkins, KI Hodges, LC Shaffrey, DB Stephenson, MA Stringer, HE Thornton, BD Youngman (2014): The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979-2012, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 2 (3), 2011-2048. dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2011-2014 PDF
• Tye, M.R., D.B. Stephenson, G.J. Holland, and Katz, R.W. (2014), A Weibull Approach for Improving Climate Model Projections of Tropical Cyclone Wind-speed Distributions, Journal of Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00121.1 PDF
• Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB, (2014): Comments on ''H. L. Wagner's unbiased hit rate and the assessment of categorical forecasting accuracy'', Weather and Forecasting 29(3):763-764. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-14-00004.1 PDF
• Lowe R, Barcellos C, Coelho CA, Bailey TC, Coelho GE, Graham R, Jupp T, Ramalho WM, Carvalho MS, Stephenson DB, Rodó X, (2014): Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts. Lancet Infect Dis 14(7):619-626 doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70781-9. PDF
• Christensen, J. H., K. Krishna Kumar, E. Aldrian, S.-I. An, I. F. A. Cavalcanti, M. de Castro, W. Dong, P. Goswami, A. Hall, J. K. Kanyanga, A. Kitoh, J. Kossin, N.-C. Lau, J. Renwick, D.B. Stephenson, S.-P. Xie and T. Zhou, 2014: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K.Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1217–1308, doi: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028. PDF

2013

• Kwiatkowski, L, PR Halloran, PJ Mumby, DB Stephenson, (2013): What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature? Climate Dynamics, 1-14. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1967-6 PDF
• Haywood, J.M, A. Jones, N. Bellouin, and D.B. Stephenson (2013): Response of Sahelian drought to asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols, Nature Climate Change, 3, 660-665. doi:10.1038/nclimate1857 PDF
• Bracegirdle, T. J., and D. B. Stephenson, (2013): On the robustness of emergent constraints used in multimodel climate change projections of Arctic warming. Journal of Climate, 26, 669-678. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00537.1 PDF
• Yip S., C.A.T. Ferro, D.B. Stephenson, E. Hawkins (2013): Reply to Comments of “A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions”, Journal of Climate, 26, 4377-4377. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00858.1 PDF
• Sansom, P. G., D. B. Stephenson, C.A.T. Ferro, G. Zappa, and L.C. Shaffrey, (2013): Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multi-model ensemble climate change experiments, Journal of Climate, 26, 4017-4037. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00462.1 PDF
• Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L., Hodges, K, Sansom, P.G, and D.B. Stephenson, (2012): A multi-model assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models. J. Climate, 26, 5846-5862. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1 PDF
• Fricker, T.F., Ferro, CAT, and D.B. Stephenson (2013): Three recommendations for evaluating climate predictions, Meteorol. Appl., 20, 246–255. doi: 10.1002/met.1409 PDF
• Goddard, L., Kumar, A., Solomon, A., Smith, D., Boer, G., Gonzalez, P., Kharin, V., Merryfield, W., Deser, C., Mason, S. J., Kirtman, B. P., Msadek, R., Sutton, R., Hawkins, E., Fricker, T., Hegerl, G., Ferro, C. A. T., Stephenson, D. B., Meehl, G. A., Stockdale, T., Burgman, R., Greene, A. M., Kushnir, Y., Newman, M., Carton, J., Fukumori, I. and Delworth, T. (2013) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Climate Dynamics, 40 (1-2). pp. 245-272. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2 PDF
• Lowe, R., Bailey, T. C., Stephenson, D.B., Jupp, T. E., Graham, R. J., Barcellos, C. and Carvalho, M. S. (2013), The development of an early warning system for climate-sensitive disease risk with a focus on dengue epidemics in Southeast Brazil. Statistics in Medicine, 32, 864–883. doi:10.1002/sim.5549 PDF
• Villarini, G., Smith J.A., Vitolo, R. and Stephenson, D.B. (2013) On the Temporal Clustering of US Floods and Its Relationship to Climate Teleconnection Patterns, Int. J. of Climatology, 33, 629-640. doi: 10.1002/joc.3458 PDF
• Chan, S.C, Kendon, E.J., Fowler, H.J., Blenkinsop, S., Ferro, C.A.T., and D.B. Stephenson, (2013): Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation? Climate Dynamics, 41, 1475-1495. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1568-9. PDF

2012

• Stephenson, D.B, Collins, M., Rougier, J.C., and Chandler, R.E. (2012) Statistical problems in the probabilistic prediction of climate change. Environmetrics, 23: 364–372. doi: 10.1002/env.2153 PDF
• Bracegirdle, T.J. and D.B. Stephenson (2012). More precise predictions of future polar winter warming estimated by multi-model ensemble regression. Climate Dynamics, 39, 2805-2821. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1330-3. PDF
• Collins, M., Chandler, R.E., Cox, P.M., Huthnance, J.M., Rougier, J., and D.B. Stephenson (2012) Quantifying future climate change, Nature Climate Change, volume 2, pages 403-409. DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1414 PDF
• Ho CK, Stephenson DB, Collins M, Ferro CAT, Brown SJ. (2012) Calibration strategies: a source of additional uncertainty in climate change projections, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 93, pages 21-26. PDF
• Folland, C. K., Scaife, A. A., Lindesay, J. and Stephenson, D. B. (2012), How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead?, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 801-818. doi: 10.1002/joc.2314 PDF
• Jupp TE, Lowe R, Stephenson DBS, Coelho CAS. (2012) On the visualization, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, volume 370, pages 1100-1120. doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0350. PDF
• Chan, S.C, Kendon, E.J., Fowler, H.J., Blenkinsop, S., Ferro, C.A.T., and D.B. Stephenson, (2012): Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation? Climate Dynamics, 41, 1475-1495. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1568-9. PDF

2011

• Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2011) Extremal Dependence Indices: improved verification measures for deterministic forecasts of rare binary events, Weather and Forecasting, volume 26, pages 699-713. PDF
• Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2011)(eds), Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, Wiley, 274 pages.
BOOK PAGE
• Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. (2011) Deterministic forecasts of extreme events and warnings, Jolliffe IT,Stephenson DB (eds), Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, Wiley, 185-202.
• Kvamsto NG, Steinskog DJ, Stephenson DB, Tjostheim DB. (2011) Estimation of trends in extreme melt-season duration at Svalbard, International Journal of Climatology. PDF
• Lowe R, Bailey TC, Stephenson DB, Graham R, Coelho CAS, Carvalho M, Barcellos C. (2011) Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil, Computers & Geosciences, volume 37, pages 371-381. PDF
• Mumby PJ, Vitolo R, Stephenson DB. (2011) Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem implications, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, volume 108, pages 17626-17630. PDF
• Villarini G, Smith JA, Baeck ML, Vitolo R, Stephenson DB, Krajewski WF. (2011) On the frequency of heavy rainfall for the Midwest of the United States, J HYDROL, volume 400, no. 1-2, pages 103-120. PDF
• Yip S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Hawkins E. (2011) A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions, Journal of Climate, volume 24, pages 4634-4643. PDF

2010

• Hogan RJ, Ferro CAT, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2010) Equitability revisited: why the 'equitable threat score' is not equitable, Weather and Forecasting, volume 25, pages 710-726. PDF
• Scinocca J, Stephenson DB, Bailey T, Austin J. (2010) Estimates of past and future ozone trends from multi-model simulations using a flexible smoothing spline methodology, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, volume 115. PDF
• Scinocca, J., Stephenson, D.B., Austin, J., Bailey, T.C., Oman, L., Plummer, D., Struthers, H. (2010), Appendix B: Time series Additive-Model Analysis in WMO SPARC Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models (Editors: V. Eyring, T. G. Shepherd, D. W. Waugh, SPARC Report No. 5, WCRP-132, WMO/TD-No. 1526, PDF.
• Stephenson, D.B, I.T. Jolliffe, C.A.T. Ferro, C.A. Wilson, M. Sharpe, M. Mittermaier, and T.D. Hewson, 2010: White Paper Review on the Verification of Warnings, Met Office Forecasting Research Technical Report No. 546, 22 pp. Available from PDF

2009

• Baldwin MP, Stephenson DB, Jolliffe IT. (2009) Spatial Weighting and Iterative Projection Methods for EOFs, Journal of Climate, volume 22, pages 234-243. PDF
• Baldwin MP, Stephenson DB, Joliffe IT. (2009) Erratum: "Spatial weighting and iterative projection methods for EOFs" (Journal of Climate vol. 22 (2) (234-243)), Journal of Climate, volume 22, no. 11, pages 3175-3175. PDF
• Monahan AH, Fyfe JC, Ambaum MHP, Stephenson DB, North GR. (2009) Empirical Orthogonal Functions: The Medium is the Message, J CLIMATE, volume 22, no. 24, pages 6501-6514. PDF
• Primo C, Ferro CAT, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2009) Combination and calibration methods for probabilistic forecasts of binary events, Monthly Weather Review, volume 137, no. 3, pages 1142-1149. PDF
• Vitolo R, Stephenson DB, Cook IM, Mitchell-Wallace K. (2009) Serial clustering of intense European storms, METEOROL ZEITSCHRIFT, volume 18, no. 4, pages 411-424. PDF

2008

• Casati B, Wilson LJ, Stephenson DB, Nurmi P, Ghelli A, Pocernich M, Damrath U, Ebert EE, Brown BG, Mason S. (2008) Forecast verification: current status and future directions, METEOROL APPL, volume 15, no. 1, pages 3-18. PDF
• Coelho CAS, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Steinskog DJ. (2008) Methods for exploring spatial and temporal variability of extreme events in climate data, J CLIMATE, volume 21, no. 10, pages 2072-2092. PDF
• Doblas-Reyes FJ, Coelho CAS, Stephenson DB. (2008) How much does simplification of probability forecasts reduce forecast quality?, METEOROL APPL, volume 15, no. 1, pages 155-162. PDF
• Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2008) Proper scores for probability forecasts can never be equitable, MON WEATHER REV, volume 136, no. 4, pages 1505-1510. PDF
• Kvamsto NG, Song Y, Seierstad IA, Sorteberg A, Stephenson DB. (2008) Clustering of cyclones in the ARPEGE general circulation model, TELLUS A, volume 60, no. 3, pages 547-556. PDF
• Mailier PJ, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB. (2008) Assessing and reporting the quality of commercial weather forecasts, Meteorological Applications, volume 15, no. 4, pages 423-429.
• Mason SJ, Stephenson DB. (2008) How do we know whether seasonal climate forecasts are any good?, Troccoli A,Harrison M,Anderson DT,Mason SJ (eds), SPRINGER, 259-289.
• Stephenson DB. (2008) An introduction to probability forecasting, Troccoli A,Harrison M,Anderson DT,Mason SJ (eds), SPRINGER, 235-257.
• Stephenson DB. (2008) Chapter 1: Definition, diagnosis, and origin of extreme weather and climate events, Murnane R,Diaz H (eds), CLIMATE EXTREMES AND SOCIETY, Cambridge, Uk, Cambridge University Press, 11-23. PDF
• Stephenson DB, Casati B, Ferro CAT, Wilson CA. (2008) The extreme dependency score: a non-vanishing measure for forecasts of rare events, METEOROL APPL, volume 15, no. 1, pages 41-50. PDF
• Stephenson DB, Coelho CAS, Jolliffe IT. (2008) Two extra components in the Brier score decomposition, WEATHER FORECAST, volume 23, no. 4, pages 752-757. PDF

2007

• Beniston, M., Stephenson, D.B., Christensen, O.B., Ferro, C.A.T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Halsnaes, K., Holt, T., Jylha, K., Koffi, B., Palutikof, J., Scholl, R., Semmler, T. and Woth, K. (2007): Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections, Climatic Change, 81 (Supplement 1), pp 71-95
• Challinor, A.J., Wheeler, T.R., Craufurd, P.Q., Ferro, C.A.T. and Stephenson, D.B. (2007): Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 119, pp 190-204
• Cox, P.M., and Stephenson, D.B. (2007): A changing climate for prediction, Science, 317, pp 207-208
• Hannachi, A., Jolliffe, I.T. and Stephenson, D.B. (2007): Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science: A review, Int. J. Climatology, 27, pp 1119-1152
• Seierstad, I.A., Stephenson, D.B., and Kvamsto, N.G. (2007): How useful are teleconnection patterns for explaining variability in extratropical storminess?, Tellus A, 59 (2), pp 170 181 PDF

2006

• Harrison, R.G. and Stephenson, D.B. (2006): Empirical evidence for a nonlinear effect of galactic cosmic rays on clouds, Proc Roy Soc A., doi:10.1098/rspa.2005.1628.
• Alexander, L.V., Stephenson, D.B. et al. (2006): Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), 111, D05109
• Coelho, C.A.S., Stephenson, D.B., Balmaseda, M., Doblas-Reyes, F.J. and van Oldenborgh, G.J. (2006): Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America, J. of Climate, 19, pp 3704-3721
• Coelho, C.A.S., Stephenson, D.B., Doblas-Reyes, F.J. and Balmaseda, M. (2006): The skill of empirical and combined/calibrated coupled multi-model South American seasonal predictions during ENSO, Advances in Geosciences, 6, pp 51-55. SRef-ID: 1680-7359/adgeo/2006-6-51
• Coelho, C.A.S., Stephenson, D.B., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Balmaseda, M., Guetter, A. and van Oldenborgh, G.J. (2006): A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America, Meteorological Applications, 13, pp 1-10
• Hannachi, A., Jolliffe, I.T., Stephenson, D.B. and Trendafilov, N. (2006): In search of simple structures in climate: Simplifying EOFs, Int. J. Climatology, 26, pp 7-28
• Kettlewell, P., Easey, J., Stephenson, D.B. and Poulton, P. (2006): Soil moisture mediates association between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and summer growth in the Park Grass Experiment, Proc Roy Soc B., doi:10.1098/rspb.2005.3428.
• Mailier, P.J., Jolliffe, I.T. and Stephenson, D.B. (2006): Quality of Weather Forecasts: Review and Recommendations, Royal Meteorological Society Project Report, pp 89
• Mailier, P.J., Stephenson, D.B., Ferro, C.A.T. and Hodges, K.I. (2006): Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones, Monthly Weather Review, 134, pp 2224-2240
• Mosedale, T.J., Stephenson, D.B., Collins, M. and Mills, T.C. (2006): Granger Causality of Coupled Climate Processes: Ocean Feedback on the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Climate, 19, pp 1182-1194
• New, M., Hewitson, B., Stephenson, D.B. et al. (2006): Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over Southern and West Africa, J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), 111 D14102
• Sapiano, M.R.P., Stephenson, D.B., Grubb, H.J. and Arkin, P.A. (2006): Diagnosis of Variability and Trends in a Global Precipitation Dataset Using a Physically Motivated Statistical Model, J. Climate, 19, pp 4154-4166
• Stephenson, D.B., Pavan, V., Collins, M., Junge, M.M., Quadrelli, R. and participating CMIP2 modelling groups (2006): North Atlantic Oscillation Response to Transient Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Impact on European Winter Climate: A CMIP2 multi-model assessment, Climate Dynamics, 27, pp 401-420

2005

• Stephenson, D.B., Coelho, C.A.S., Balmaseda, M. and Doblas-Reyes, F.J. (2005): Forecast Assimilation: A unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions, Tellus A, 57 (3), pp 253-264
• Atkinson, M.D., Kettlewell, P.S., Hollins, P.D. and Stephenson, D.B. (2005): Summer climate mediates UK wheat quality response to winter North Atlantic Oscillation, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 130, 27-37.
• Ferro, C.A.T., Hannachi, A. and Stephenson, D.B. (2005): Simple non-parametric techniques for exploring changing probability distributions of weather, Journal of Climate, 18, pp 4344-4354
• Jolliffe, I.T. and Stephenson, D.B. (2005): Comments on Discussion of Verification Concepts in Forecast Verification: A Practitioner s Guide in Atmospheric Science , Weather and Forecasting, 20, pp 796-800
• McGregor, G.R., Ferro, C.A.T. and Stephenson, D.B. (2005): Projected changes in extreme weather and climate events in Europe, Weather and Climate Events and Public Health Responses. W Kirch, B Menne, R Bertollini Eds., Dresden: Springer, 13-23, pp 303
• Mosedale, T.J., Stephenson, D.B. and Collins, M. (2005): Atlantic Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: A Stochastic Climate Model-Based Diagnosis, J. Climate, 18 No.7, pp 1086-1095
• Panagiotopoulos, F., Shahgedanova, M., Hannachi, A. and Stephenson, D.B. (2005): Observed trends and teleconnections of the Siberian high: a rapidly declining centre of action, J. Climate, 18, pp 1411-1422
• Pezzulli, S., Frederic, P., Majithia, S., Sabbagh, S., Black, E., Sutton, R. and Stephenson, D.B. (2005): The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: a hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator, Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 22-2, pp 113-125, DOI:10.1002/asm PDF
• Pezzulli, S., Hannachi, A. and Stephenson, D.B. (2005): The Variability of Seasonality, J. Climate, 18 (1), pp 71-88
• Stephenson, D.B. (2005): Comment on Color Schemes for Improved Data Graphics, by A. Light and P. J. Bartlein, EOS, 86 No.20

2004

• Stephenson, D.B., Hannachi, A. and O Neill, A. (2004): On the existence of multiple climate regimes, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 130, pp 583-605
• Beniston, M. and Stephenson, D.B. (2004): Extreme climatic events and their evolution under changing climatic conditions, Global and Planetary Change, 44, pp 1-9
• Casati, B., Ross, G. and Stephenson, D.B. (2004): A new intensity-scale approach for the verification of spatial precipitation forecasts, Met. Applications, 11, pp 141-154
• Coelho, C.A.S., Pezzulli, S., Balmaseda, M., Doblas-Reyes, F.J. and Stephenson, D.B. (2004): Skill of coupled model seasonal forecasts: A Bayesian assessment of ECMWF ENSO forecasts, ECMWF Technical Memorandum, 426, pp 16
• Coelho, C.A.S., Pezzulli, S., Balmaseda, M., Doblas-Reyes, F.J. and Stephenson, D.B. (2004): Forecast calibration and combination: A simple Bayesian approach for ENSO, J. Climate, 17, pp 1504-1516
• Gober, M., Wilson, C.A., Milton, S.F. and Stephenson, D.B. (2004): Fairplay in the verification of operational quantitative precipitation forecasts., J. Hydrology, 288, pp 225-236
• Hannachi, A., Stephenson, D.B. and Sperber, K.R. (2004): Corrigendum: Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in ENSO, Climate Dynamics, 22 1, pp 69-70
• Hollins, P.D., Kettlewell, P.S., Atkinson, M.D., Stephenson, D.M., Corden, J.M., Millington, W.M. and Mullins, J. (2004): Relationship between airborne fungal spore concentration of Cladosporium and the summer climate at two sites in Britain, Int. J. of Biometeorology, 48, pp 137-141
• Kvamsto, N.G., Skeie, P. and Stephenson, D.B. (2004): Impact of Labrador sea-ice on the North Atlantic Oscillation, International J. of Climatology, 24, pp 603-612

2003

• Baldwin, M.P., Stephenson, D.B., Thompson, D.W.J., Dunkerton, T.J., Charlton, A.J. and O'Neill, A. (2003): Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts, Science, 301, pp 636-640
• Charlton, A.J., O Neill, A., Stephenson, D.B., Lahoz, W.A. and Baldwin, M.P. (2003): Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere? , Quart. J. of Royal. Met. Soc, 129, pp 3205-3224
• Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Pavan, V. and Stephenson, D.B. (2003): Multi-model seasonal hindcasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation, Climate Dynamics, 21, pp 501-514
• Hannachi, A., Stephenson, D.B. and Sperber, K.R. (2003): Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in ENSO., Climate Dynamics, 20 (2-3), pp 241-256
• Jolliffe, I.T. and Stephenson, D.B. (2003): Forecast Verification: A Practitioner s Guide in Atmospheric Science, Wiley and Sons, Chichester, pp 240
• Junge, M.M. and Stephenson, D.B. (2003): Mediated and direct effects of the North Atlantic ocean on winter temperatures in northwest Europe, Int. J. of Climatology, 23 (3), pp 245-261
• Kettlewell, P.S., Stephenson, D.B., Atkinson, M.D. and Hollins, P.D. (2003): Summer rainfall and wheat grain quality: relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation, Weather, 58, pp 155-163
• Stephenson, D.B. and Pavan, V. (2003): The North Atlantic Oscillation in coupled climate models: a CMIP1 evaluation, Climate Dynamics, 20 (4), pp 381-399

2002

• Ambaum, M.H.P., Hoskins, B.J. and Stephenson, D.B. (2002): Corrigendum: Arctic Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation?, J. Climate, 15, pp 553
• Atkinson, M.D., Kettlewell, P.S., Hollins, P.D., Stephenson, D.B. and Parsons, S.T. (2002): Regression forecast of UK harvest wheat quality from the preceding winter North Atlantic Oscillation., Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, 112
• Panagiotopoulos, F., Shahgedanova, M. and Stephenson, D.B. (2002): A Review of Northern Hemisphere winter-time teleconnection patterns, (European Research Course on Atmospheres ERCA: - Vol. 5 Ed. C. Boutron), J. Phys IV, EDP Sciences, France, 12, pp 1027-1047
• Stephenson, D.B., Wanner, H., Br nnimann, S. and Luterbacher, J. (2002): The History of Scientific Research on the North Atlantic Oscillation, The North Atlantic Oscillation: climatic significance and environmental impact, (J. W. Hurrell, Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen, M. Visbeck, Eds.), Geophysical Monograph 134, American Geophysical Union, Washington, pp 37-50

2001

• Ambaum, M.H.P., Hoskins, B.J. and Stephenson, D.B. (2001): Arctic Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation?, J. Climate, 14, pp 3495-3507
• Antoniadou, A., Besse, P., Fougeres, A.-L., Le Gall, C. and Stephenson, D.B. (2001): L'Oscillation Atlantique Nord NAO: et son influence sur le climat europeen, Revue de Statistique Applique, XLIX (3), pp 39-60 PDF
• Atkinson, M.D., Kettlewell, P.S., Hollins, P.D., Stephenson, D.B. and Parsons, S.T. (2001): Forecasting quality and breadmaking premium of wheat from the winter North Atlantic Oscillation, Aspects of Applied Biology, 64 (wheat quality), pp 127-128
• Kettlewell, P.S., Atkinson, M.D., Stephenson, D.B. and Hollins, P.D. (2001): Climatic factors mediating the effect of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on wheat quality, Aspects of Applied Biology, 64 (wheat quality), pp 129-130
• Stephenson, D.B., Douville, H. and Rupa Kumar, K. (2001): Searching for a fingerprint of global warming in the Asian summer monsoon, Mausam (special issue), 52, 1, pp 213-220
• Thornes, J.E. and Stephenson, D.B. (2001): How to judge the quality and value of weather forecast products, Meteorological Applications, 8, pp 307-314
• Wanner, H., Br nnimann, S., Casty, C., Gyalistras, D., Luterbacher, J., Schmutz, C., Stephenson, D.B. and Xoplaki, E. (2001): North Atlantic Oscillation - concepts and studies, Survey Geophysics, 22, pp 321-381

2000

• Besse, P., Cardot, H. and Stephenson, D.B. (2000): Autoregressive forecasting of some functional climatic variations, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 27, pp 673-687. PDF
• Douville, H., Planton, S., Royer, J.-F., Stephenson, D.B., Tyteca, S., Kergoat, L., Lafont, S. and Betts, R.A. (2000): Importance of vegetation feedbacks in doubled-CO2 climate experiment, J. Geophys. Res., 105 No.D11, pp 14,841-14,861
• Douville, H., Royer, J-F., Polcher, J., Cox, P., Gedney, N., Stephenson, D.B. and Valdes, P.J. (2000): Impact of CO2 doubling on the Asian Summer Monsoon: Robust versus model-dependent responses, J. Met. Soc. of Japan, 78 No.4, pp 421-439
• Fevrier, S., Frankignoul, C., Sirven, J., Davey, M.K., Delecluse, P., Ineson, S., Macias, J., Sennechael, N. and Stephenson, D.B. (2000): A multivariate intercomparison between three oceanic GCMs using observed current and thermocline depth anomalies in the tropical Pacific during 1985-1992, J.Marine Systems, 24, pp 249-275
• Martin, G.M., Arpe, K., Chauvin, F., Ferranti, L., Maynard, K., Polcher, J., Stephenson, D.B. and Tschuck, P. (2000): Simulation of the Asian Summer Monsoon in Five European General Circulation Models, Atmospheric Science Letters, 1 (1), pp 37-55
• Stephenson, D.B. (2000): Use of the odds ratio for diagnosing forecast skill, Weather and Forecasting, 15 No.2, pp 221-232
• Stephenson, D.B. and Doblas-Reyes, F.J. (2000): Statistical methods for interpreting Monte Carlo ensemble forecasts, Tellus, 52A, pp 300-322 PDF
• Stephenson, D.B., Pavan, V. and Bojariu, R. (2000): Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a random walk?, International Journal of Climatology, 20, pp 1-18

1999
• Burgers, G. and Stephenson, D.B. (1999): The Normality of El Nino, Geophys. Res. Letters, 26, pp 1027-1030 PDF
• Macias, J., Stephenson, D.B. and Kearsley, A. (1999): A basic reference state suitable for anomaly-coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models, Appl.Math. Lett., 12, 1, pp 21-24
• Stephenson, D.B., Rupa Kumar, K., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Royer, J.-F., Chauvin, F. and Pezzulli, S. (1999): Extreme daily rainfall events and their impact on Ensemble forecasts of the Indian monsoon, Monthly Weather Review, 127, pp 1954-1966

1998
• Ambrizzi, T., Kayano, M. and Stephenson, D.B. (1998): Observed and modelled teleconnections using total ozone data, Climate Dynamics, 14, pp 133-150
• Doblas-Reyes, F.J., D qu , M., Valero, F. and Stephenson, D.B. (1998): North Atlantic Wintertime Intraseasonal Variability and its Sensitivity to GCM Horizontal Resolution, Tellus, 50A, pp 573-595 PDF
• Orsolini, Y.J., Stephenson, D.B. and Doblas-Reyes, F.J. (1998): Storm track signature in total ozone during the Northern Hemisphere winter, Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 13, pp 2413-2416
• Stephenson, D.B., Chauvin, F. and Royer, J-F. (1998): Simulation of the Asian Summer Monsoon and its dependence on model horizontal resolution, Journal of the Met. Soc. of Japan, 76, 2, pp 237-265 PDF

1997
• Garric, G., Stephenson, D.B. and Terray, L. (1997): Simulation couplee globale atmosphere, banquise et ocean superficiel, Les Comptes Rendus de l Academie des Sciences, t.324, Serie IIa, pp 529-536
• Stephenson, D.B. (1997): Correlation of spatial climate/weather maps and the advantages of using the Mahalanobis metric in predictions, Tellus, 49A, 5, pp 513-527 PDF

1996
• Macias, J. and Stephenson, D.B. (1996): Seasonal and interannual ENSO variability in a Hybrid Coupled Model of the tropical Pacific, Les Comptes Rendus de l Academie des Sciences, t.324, Serie IIa, pp 269-276

1995
• Guilyardi, E., Madec, G., Terray, L., D qu , M., Pontaud, M., Imbard, M., Stephenson, D.B., Filiberti, M-A., Cariolle, D., Delecluse, P. and Thual, O. (1995): Simulation couplee ocean-atmosphere de la variabilite du climat, Les Comptes Rendus de l Academie des Sciences, Serie IIa, t.320, pp 683-690
• Stephenson, D.B. (1995): The impact of changing the horizontal diffusion scheme on the climatology of a perpetual January General Circulation Model, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Met. Society, 121, pp 211-226 PDF
• Stephenson, D.B. and Royer, J-F. (1995): GCM simulation of the Southern Oscillation from 1979-88, Climate Dynamics, 11, pp 115-128
• Stephenson, D.B. and Royer, J-F. (1995): Low-frequency variability of TOMS and GCM total ozone stationary waves associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation for the period 1979-88, Journal of Geophysical Research, 100 D4, pp 7337-7346

1994
• Stephenson, D.B. (1994): The Northern Hemisphere tropospheric response to changes in the gravity wave drag scheme in a perpetual January GCM, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Met. Society, 120, pp 699-712 PDF

1993
• Stephenson, D.B. and Held, I. (1993): GCM Response Of Northern Winter Stationary Waves And Storm Tracks To Increasing Amounts Of Carbon Dioxide, Journal of Climate, 6, pp 1859-1870

1992
• Stephenson, D.B. and Bryan, K. (1992): Large-Scale Electric and Magnetic Fields Generated by the Oceans, Journal of Geophysical Research, 97 C10, pp 15,467-15,480 PDF

1988
• Bowler, K.C., Chalmers, C.B., Kenway, R.D., Roweth, D. and Stephenson, D.B. (1988): Quenched hadron mass calculations using staggered fermions at beta=6.15 and beta=6.30, Nuclear Physics, B296, pp 732-756
• Bowler, K.C., Kenway, R.D., Roweth, D. and Stephenson, D.B. (1988): The chiral limit of quenched lattice QCD, Nuclear Physics, B301, pp 304-326
• Stephenson, D.B. (1988): Field equations on fractal lattices, Nuclear Physics, B295 [FS21], pp 511-524
• Stephenson, D.B. and Thornton, A. (1988): Non-perturbative Yukawa couplings, Physics Letters, B222, pp 479-482