Joint Met Office Chair in Climate Change,
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences,
University of Exeter
My research in the last ten years has been in a number of areas. The dynamics and physics of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its response under climate change has been a long-term interest. I have been involved in a number of key recent activities in this area including a widely cited perspectives piece in Nature Geosciences that reviewed the state-of-the art of ENSO and climate change and a recent series of papers that have revealed the possibility of an increase in extreme ENSO events in the future which have a non-linear impact on features such as the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Another major theme has been in the quantification of uncertainty in climate projections using ensembles of climate models (both perturbed physics and multi-model). I led a group in the Met Office that produced ensembles and implemented an algorithm for producing probabilistic projections of climate change (specifically for the UK, for which we received a Met Office Award for Scientific Excellence). This work has led to a number of highly cited publications. It also led to me being appointed as a Coordinating Lead Author of the 5th Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In 2014 I was included in the Thomson Reuters Highly Cited Researcher list, which ranks me among the top 1% of researchers in Geosciences.
More recently I have diversified my research interests and now have, or have had, PhD students, funded projects and publications in the following areas; Arctic sea-ice, South Asian Monsoon, tropical climate feedbacks, African climate change, N. Atlantic seasonal variability and decadal variability. My future research area can be best described as understanding and quantifying future spatial patterns of climate change, combining information from climate models and observations.