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On coherenceincoherence transition in dynamical networks: spatial chaos and chimera states  
Yuri Maistrenko (Potsdam)  
19 Jul 2011  Harrison 170 Tuesday 10am  Applied Mathematics 
We discuss the breakdown of spatial coherence in networks of coupled oscillators with nonlocal interaction. By systematically analyzing the dependence of the spatiotemporal dynamics on the range and strength of coupling, we uncover a dynamical bifurcation scenario for the coherenceincoherence transition which starts with the appearance of narrow layers of incoherence occupying eventually the whole space. Our findings for coupled chaotic and periodic maps as well as for timecontinuous Ro¨ssler systems reveal that intermediate, partially coherent states represent characteristic spatiotemporal patterns at the transition from coherence to incoherence.  
 
The phaseamplitude description of neural oscillators.  
Kyle Wedgewood (University of Nottingham)  
11 Jul 2011  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
It is quite common to describe neural oscillators with a phase variable, thus reducing the model description to that of dynamics on a circle. However, if a limit cycle is not strongly attracting then this reduction may poorly characterise behaviour of the original system. Here we consider a coordinate transformation to a phase amplitude framework that allows one to track the evolution of distance from the cycle as well as phase on cycle. A number of common models in computational neuroscience (primarily the MorrisLecar model) are revisited in this framework and their response to pulsatile current forcing is investigated. We highlight the differences between phase and phaseamplitude descriptions, and show that the former can miss some substantial features of neuronal response. Finally, we discuss extensions of this work to consider the effects of offcycle dynamics contributing to shearinduced chaos.  
 
Weather, climate and renewable energy  
David Brayshaw (University of Reading)  
23 Jun 2011  Harrison 209 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Securing a reliable electricity supply that is sufficient to meet demand is a vital concern for any modern economy. With the growth of renewable energy generation (particularly wind), it is important to understand the impacts of weather and climate variability on both supply and demand at national and international scales. At the daytoday level, discussion in the UK often focuses on the issue of windsupply during peak demand conditions – that is, the estimation of the minimum contribution that windpower will make during extreme demand periods. Recorded power system data alone is insufficient to robustly estimate this wind “capacity value”, leading to the emergence of a rather confused picture in both the energy systems literature and the wider public debate. Weatherclassification tools are proposed here as a means to address this problem. By identifying the relevant meteorological patterns associated with lowwinds and peakdemand, it is demonstrated that the prevailing view of an anticyclonic "lowwind coldsnap" does not adequately describe peakdemand conditions. At longer timescales, largescale lowfrequency variability in the climate system can also have a marked impact on renewable generation, a fact that is often ignored during resource assessment and wind integration studies. A simple example is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), variations in which are capable of yielding a difference in mean windpower generation at UK sites of up to 10%. The NAO also correlates strongly with largescale variations in seasonalmean surface temperature and precipitation patterns, potentially affecting the demand for electricity and the availability of hydropower, as well as wind generation. Such largescale covariability is likely to become increasingly important as crossborder transports within the European energy system increase. This talk presents ongoing research which seeks to better explore the links between weather, climate and energy. It will highlight some of the areas where meteorological information can be used to inform decision making in the UK and European electricity systems.  
 
Why is the Arctic warming so fast?  
James Screen (University of Melbourne)  
21 Jun 2011  Harrison 102 Tuesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Recent climate change has been especially pronounced in the Arctic region, with surface temperatures rising two to four times faster than the global average and an accompanying rapid decline of sea ice. Both the Arctic warming and the sea ice loss are unprecedented over at least the last few thousand years. A multitude of climate feedbacks have been proposed that amplify the Arctic surface temperature response to climate forcing. This talk will discuss some of these, and explore whether they are already active and contributing to recent Arctic change. It will present evidence that strong icetemperature feedbacks have emerged and that the decline in sea ice is playing a central role in Arctic temperature amplification. Both the sea ice loss and the warming have significant impacts on the Arctic moisture budget. These will be discussed in the context of changes in atmospheric water vapour content and in the phase of summer precipitation. There is evidence of humidity increases and a transition towards less snow and more rain. The causes, impacts, and feedbacks associated with these hydrological changes will be considered.  
 
TBA  
TBA  
16 Jun 2011  Harrison LT04 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
TBA  
TBA  
9 Jun 2011  Harrison LT04 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
** postponed to 23rd June **  
David Brayshaw (University of Reading)  
2 Jun 2011  Harrison LT04 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
** postponed to 23rd June **  
 
[symposium] Rotating Flow and Dynamo  
Taylor and Francis sponsored symposium  
2 Jun 2011  Harrison 215 Thursday from 11am  Applied Mathematics 
Thursday, 2 June, 2011 at Room 215 Harrison Building 11:0012:30 Tea/Coffee/Biscuits, Room 215 Harrison Building 12:302:00, Lunch at Xfi Building 2:002:30, Andrew Soward (Exeter) The onset of strongly localised thermal convection in rotating spherical shells. 2:303:00, Radostin Simitev (Glasgow), Effects of shell thickness and velocity boundary conditions on convective dynamos in rotating spherical shells. 3:003:30, Jun Zou (Hong Kong), Inverse Electromagnetic Obstacle Scattering. 3:304:30, Tea/Coffee/Biscuits, Room 215 Harrison Building; 4:305:00, Phil Livermore (Leeds) Dynamics of the tangent cylinder in rapidlyrotating inviscid flows, 5:005:30, Yannick Ponty (France) Large scale and small scale dynamos 5:306:00 Emilie Neveu (France) Multigrids for data assimilation on geophysics models 6:309:00 Conference dinner (the location to be confirmed) Friday, 3 June, 2011, at Room 215 Harrison Building 9:009:30 Steve Tobias (Leeds), Direct Statistical Simulation of Jet Formation 9:3010:00 Emmanuel Dormy (France), Weak and Strong Field Dynamos 10:0010:30 Paul Bushby (Newcastle), Dynamo action in rotating compressible convection 10:3011:00 Tea/Coffee/Biscuits, Room 215 Harrison Building; 11:0011:30 Keke Zhang (Exeter), Asymptotic solution for resonant flow in a spheroidal cavity driven by latitudinal libration. 11:3012:00 Michael Chan (Hong Kong), Fluid motion and dynamos in a triaxial cavity driven by libration 12:0013:30, Lunch at Xfi Building (THE END)  
 
 no seminar   
 no seminar   
26 May 2011  Harrison LT04 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Connecting mesoscale and macroscale models of cellular migration  
Ruth Baker (University of Oxford)  
19 May 2011  Harrison LT04 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Continuum, partial differential equation (PDE) descriptions of cell movement are often employed in modelling studies because of their analytical tractability, and the wealth of numerical methods available for their solution. Derived from, for example, conservation of mass approaches these models describe how cell density changes with time due to random movements of cells, different types of taxes/kineses and cell proliferation/death. In the main, these processes are represented in the model equations in a phenomenological manner, providing gross descriptions not necessarily derived from the underlying cell behaviour. In this talk I will consider effects such as cell shape and volume exclusion, discussing how such phenomena may be modelled at the mesoscale, and how populationlevel macroscale models may be derived from these descriptions.  
 
== COLLOQUIUM == Collective behaviour of swimming microorganisms  
Professor Tim Pedley (University of Cambridge)  
12 May 2011  Harrison LT04 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Suspensions of swimming microorganisms exhibit a rich variety of collective behaviour, such as the bioconvection patterns seen for suspensions of upswimming cells that are denser than their surroundings, or the timevarying coherent structures seen in dense suspensions of swimming bacteria. Here we investigate the fluid dynamic mechanisms underlying these patterns, by means of (1) a continuum model for dilute suspensions, (2) hydrodynamic interactions between pairs of model microorganisms, and (3) simulations and models for nondilute suspensions. The talk will conclude with recent observations of ‘dancing’ algae.  
 
Discrete Variational Derivative Methods for PDES  
Chris Budd  
9 May 2011  Harrison 203 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Timestepping errors in weather and climate simulations  
Paul Williams (University of Reading)  
5 May 2011  Harrison LT04 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Comprehensive assessments of uncertainty in weather and climate prediction models should in principle consider contributions from the discretised numerical schemes, as well as from the parameterised physics and other sources. The numerical contributions are often assumed to be negligible, however. This talk reviews the evidence for uncertainty arising from timestepping schemes. Most contemporary weather and climate models still use the simple centreddifference (leapfrog) timestepping scheme, in concert with the RobertAsselin filter to stabilise the computational mode. This talk proposes a new alternative filter, known as the RAW filter, which substantially reduces the numerical errors and improves the formal accuracy. Examples are shown in which the new filter yields more skilful weather forecasts and reduces biases in climate models.  
 
Calibrating computer simulators using ABC  
Richard Wilkinson (University of Nottingham)  
28 Mar 2011  Harrison 209 Monday 3pm  Applied Mathematics 
Computer simulators are now used in nearly all scientific disciplines. Comparing simulators with observations of reality (in order to estimate parameters, quantify errors etc) is major challenge for statistics. In this talk I'll introduce a relatively new class of methods that can be used to calibrate simulators called Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms. I'll illustrate these methods on a problem from evolutionary biology.  
 
Review of the Euler singularity problem (and our small contribution).  
Andrew Gilbert (with Walter Pauls, University of Bielefeld).  
23 Mar 2011  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
TBA  
*no seminar  no room available*  
21 Mar 2011  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Chaotic mixing in a helixlike pipe with periodic variations in curvature and torsion  
Mitsuaki Funakoshi (Kyoto University)  
17 Mar 2011  Harrison 170 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Chaotic motion of fluid particles by a steady viscous flow in a helixlike circular pipe caused by an axial pressure gradient, and mixing efficiency of this flow are numerically examined. This pipe is wound around a circular or elliptic cylinder with a constant pitch so that the curvature kappa and torsion tau of centerline of this pipe vary continuously and periodically. If both kappa and tau are small and slowlyvarying, the crosssectional motion of fluid particles is expected to be approximately governed by the sum of Dean's flow and the flow of rigid rotation. From Poincare sections and the values of an index of the extent of mixing, it is found that there is an intermediate range of Reynolds number Re of flow within which chaotic regions in Poincare sections are large and mixing efficiency in a short time is high. Moreover, larger chaotic regions and higher mixing efficiency are observed for pipes wound around a circular cylinder of smaller radius, and for pipes wound around a thinner elliptic cylinder. These results can be explained by the variation in characteristic ratio 12 tau / (kappa Re) in one period.  
 
Unfolding of homoclinic and heteroclinic behaviour in a multiplysymmetric strut buckling problem.  
Dr Khurram Wadee  
16 Mar 2011  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Localized buckling in infinitely long structures has been at the forefront of furthering our understanding of homoclinic solutions in a class of reversible fourthorder systems. At criticality, the system encounters a subcritical HamiltonianHopf bifurcation from which emanate homoclinic (localized) solutions. These are unstable in the physical sense but the presence of higher order nonlinearity can act to stabilize the solutions. When appropriate stabilization is present, the homoclinic solution transforms into a heteroclinic solution with the propogation of a front. Careful analysis of the boundary layer between the zero solution and constant finite amplitude solution is the key to understanding how this transformation occurs. These predictions are then tested against numerical solutions of the governing equations.  
 
Detecting the Interior Profile of Jupiter’s Differential Rotation by Gravity Science Techniques.  
Dali Kong  
9 Mar 2011  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
NASA’s JUNO Jupiter probe is going to be launched soon. One of its primary scientific goals is to determine the interior structure, and the deep atmosphere of Jupiter, by making detailed measurements of its complete gravity field from orbit tracking. The observations may help unveil the mechanism producing one of the most fascinating Jovian features, the persistent zonal jets and belts structure on Jupiter’s visible surface. In this work, for the first time, an up bound is given upon how much Jovian gravity field can be distorted, if a deep differential rotation model is assumed. The problem is discussed based on perturbed Maclaurin spheroid theory but is ready to be generalized to a more realistic physical state. It is suggested that the largest field expansion coefficient J_2 of Jupiter may be subject to a 10^{3} relative change owing to the current observed zonal jet speed.  
 
TBA  
TBA  
7 Mar 2011  Harrison 209 Monday 3pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
On the applied Mathematics of Ocean Waves  
Peter Janssen (ECMWF)  
28 Feb 2011  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
For the (applied) Mathematician the subject of ocean waves, or to be more precise, surface gravity waves is an interesting problem because on the one hand it is a relatively simple and attractive while on the other hand the subject is very relevant for society. Nevertheless, due to its nonlinear character the problem has still not been solved, despite the fact that it received considerable attention for at least two centuries. Presently there is a renewed interest in the subject because of attempts to try to understand the generation of "freak" waves. After a brief historical account of the subject I will introduce the hamiltonian formulation of surface gravity waves. For weak nonlinearity there is a natural distinction between free and bound gravity waves. This distinction allows the introduction of a relatively simple evolution equation, which is called the Zakharov equation. From this evolution equation a number of interesting properties of weakly nonlinear water waves may be derived. In this talk I will concentrate on only one property, namely the instability of a uniform wave train which is an example of a fourwave interaction process. In fluid Mechanics this instability is called the BenjaminFeir instability. It turns out that this instability, because it is a fourwave interaction, is also found in other fields. Examples are nonlinear Optics and Plasma Physics. In its most simple form the BenjaminFeir Instability leads to the generation of envelope solitons which provides a possible explanation for the generation of "freak" waves. Because these extreme events are rare, forecasting of freak waves is difficult. Nevertheless, the probability of these extreme events can be estimated and at ECMWF probablistic forecasting of "freak" waves was introduced a number of years ago. This is the 32nd Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics".  
 
**POSTPONED** Timestepping errors in weather and climate simulations  
**POSTPONED** Paul Williams (**POSTPONED** University of Reading)  
21 Feb 2011  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Comprehensive assessments of uncertainty in weather and climate prediction models should in principle consider contributions from the discretised numerical schemes, as well as from the parameterised physics and other sources. The numerical contributions are often assumed to be negligible, however. This talk reviews the evidence for uncertainty arising from timestepping schemes. Most contemporary weather and climate models still use the simple centreddifference (leapfrog) timestepping scheme, in concert with the RobertAsselin filter to stabilise the computational mode. This talk proposes a new alternative filter, known as the RAW filter, which substantially reduces the numerical errors and improves the formal accuracy. Examples are shown in which the new filter yields more skilful weather forecasts and reduces biases in climate models.  
 
Accelerating chaos control: how waiting can speed things up  
Chris Bick (Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and SelfOrganization, Goettingen)  
15 Feb 2011  Harrison 254 Tuesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Huabing Yin  
Microengineering biointerfaces for sensing and cell response (University of Glasgow)  
14 Feb 2011  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
In the body, a cell senses and responds to its surrounding microenvironment. Increasingly, it has been demonstrated that this behavior is associated with important processes like stem cell differentiation, cancer cell invasion and wound healing. However, the natural habitat of a cell, the extracellular matrix (ECM), consists of interconnected physical, chemical and biological cues. Understanding the influence of these arrangements on cell function will have a profound impact in developing biomaterials that induce desired cellular responses. However, it remains an ongoing challenge. In this context, we have been developing microenvironments in vitro with the aim to closely mimic the multiplex cues found in vivo. Our work combines microfabrication, microfluidics and new surface chemistry to create functional biointerfaces, where multiple cues (both biological and physical) are spatially arranged on a length scale of nano and micrometers. This interdisciplinary approach has enabled a flexible platform for a number of applications, ranging from high throughput drug screening for pharmaceutical development to the emerging fields of stem cell research. For example, discrete or gradient patterns of single or multiple biomolecules (e.g peptide and carbohydrates) have been reliably generated on a surface to investigate their collective roles in regulating cell migration, differentiation and elasticity (via AFM indentation). In this talk, I will discuss the rationales behind the design of these biointerfaces, their advantages and the challenges with our recent work in these areas.  
 
TBA  
TBA  
7 Feb 2011  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
TBA  
TBA  
31 Jan 2011  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Implicit hydrodynamic simulations of stellar convection  
Maxime Viallet (Physics Dept, University of Exeter)  
24 Jan 2011  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Order vs. chaos when the space is discrete.  
Franco Vivaldi (Queen Mary)  
17 Jan 2011  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Accounting for the limitations of quantitative models  
Jonty Rougier (University of Bristol)  
10 Jan 2011  Harrison 171 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
There is a wide spectrum of modelling approaches for complex systems. However, in an area such as environmental science, even the most 'realistic' models tend to result in substantial system uncertainty. These realistic models are usually too unwieldy to be embedded within a statistical framework, necessary for performing the standard tasks of model criticism, model calibration, and system prediction. Instead, we consider whether it is possible to use much simpler 'phenomenological' models. The principles and practice are illustrated using a model for glacial cycles developed by Michel Crucifix as part of the ITOP project. The practice uses the very latest techniques from statistical computing, namely Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC).  
 
Passive scalar decay in chaotic flows with boundaries  
Fatma Zaggout  
14 Dec 2010  Harrison 101 Tuesday 9am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
We study the decay rate of a passive scalar in twodimensional chaotic flows, with a focus on the effect of boundary conditions for kinematically prescribed velocity fields with random or time periodic timedependence. The boundary conditions on the scalar and flow in a subdomain are imposed by restricting to a subclass invariant under certain symmetry transformations. At late times the decay of the variance of a passive scalar, for example temperature, is exponential in time with rate $\gamma$. For a variety of different cases scaling laws of the form $\gamma(\kappa) \simeq C \kappa^\alpha$ are obtained with exponents $\alpha$ that depend on the boundary conditions mentioned before.  
 
Dynamics of differentialdelay equations with single, multiple and timevarying lags  
Gabor Kiss (University of Bristol)  
13 Dec 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
We compare the stability properties of some families of delay differential equations with one delay to associated families of equations with distributed delays. With the aid of some examples, we indicate some differences between the nonlinear oscillations of equations with one and distributed delays. Furthermore, we report on the existence of pullback attractors of multiple delayed equations.  
 
Dispersion of Pollution by Transitional Atmospheric Boundary Layers  
Alex Taylor  
7 Dec 2010  Harrison 101 Tuesday 9am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
We consider the dispersion of passive tracer particles within the atmospheric boundary layer through the development of two different methods, Lagrangian stochastic modelling and largeeddy simulation. Initially we focus on obtaining agreement with previous studies and observations for the case of a steady convective boundary layer, moving on to address the case of a typical evening 'decaying' convective boundary layer and investigating the role of residual convective turbulence on dispersion.  
 
To snake or not to snake in the planar SwiftHohenberg equation  
Daniele Avitabile (University of Surrey)  
6 Dec 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Localised stationary structures play an important role in many biological, chemical and physical processes. Such structures have been observed in a variety of experiments ranging from verticallyvibrated granular materials, liquid crystals, binaryfluid convection, autocatalytic chemical reactions, electrochemical systems to nonlinear optical devices. We investigate the bifurcation structure of stationary localised patterns in a prototypical model, the two dimensional SwiftHohenberg equation, on an infinitely long cylinder and on the plane. On cylinders, we find localised roll, square and stripe patches that exhibit snaking and nonsnaking behaviour on the same bifurcation branch. Some of these patterns snake between four saddlenode limits: recent analytical results predict then the existence of a rich bifurcation structure to asymmetric solutions, and we trace out these branches and the PDE spectra along these branches. On the plane, we study the bifurcation structure of fully localised roll structures, which are often referred to as worms. We also show preliminary numerical results on oscillons, that is, timeperiodic spatiallylocalised structures.  
 
Uncertainty in Climate Projections.  
Mat Collins  
30 Nov 2010  Harrison 101 Tuesday 9am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
We are not certain about how severe future climate change will be. Climate models that are used to make projections of the future are known to be inadequate at simulating past climate and climate change because of limitations in computing resources and because of limitations in our understanding of the climate system. Although models are constantly improved, inadequacies persist and policy makers are beginning to require quantitative information to plan for the future. This talk will discuss techniques for dealing with uncertainties using physical, mathematical and statistical approaches. A particular example will be future climate projections made for the UK under the UKCP09 project (http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/).  
 
Convergence of fastslow ODEs to stochastic differential equations  
Ian Melbourne (University of Surrey)  
29 Nov 2010  Harrison 254 Monday 10am  Applied Mathematics 
A project started recently with Andrew Stuart investigates the convergence of certain deterministic systems to a stochastic differential equation. For (presently oversimplified) fastslow systems, we prove, under very mild conditions on the fast variables (including the case where the fast equation is the Lorenz attractor), that the slowvariable solutions converge to solutions of a stochastic differential equation. A major difference between our approach and related projects is that we do not rely on decay of correlations for the fast variables (decay of correlations for flows is a notoriously difficult and poorly understood problem). Instead we use invariance principles (a generalisation of the central limit theorem giving convergence to Brownian motion) and large deviation estimates which have been derived for a very large class of systems in collaboration with Matthew Nicol.  
 
Adaptive Mesh Modelling of the Global Atmosphere  
Hilary Weller (University of Reading)  
29 Nov 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
The next generation of models for weather and climate prediction may look very different from the current, well optimised generation: Future models may use different grids which avoid the pole problem and use unstructured or adaptive meshes. During this talk I will demonstrate some advantages and disadvantages of a latlon grid, a cubed sphere and triangular and hexagonal icosahedral grids both with and without local refinement. I will then describe and demonstrate a mesh refinement criteria which anticipates mesh requirements many time steps into the future.  
 
Robustness of funnel control in the gap metric.  
Markus Mueller  
23 Nov 2010  Harrison 101 Tuesday 9am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
For minput, moutput, finitedimensional, linear systems satisfying the assumptions (i) minimum phase, (ii) relative degree one and (iii) positive highfrequency gain), the funnel controller achieves output regulation in the following sense: all states of the closedloop system are bounded and, most importantly, transient behaviour of the tracking error is ensured such that its evolution remains in a performance funnel with prespecified boundary. As opposed to classical adaptive highgain output feedback, system identification or internal model is not invoked and the gain is not monotone. Invoking the conceptual framework of the nonlinear gap metric we show that the funnel controller is robust in the following sense: the funnel controller copes with bounded input and output disturbances and, more importantly, it may even be applied to a system not satisfying any of the classical conditions (i)–(iii) as long as the initial conditions and the disturbances are “small” and the system is “close” (in terms of a “small” gap) to a system satisfying (i)–(iii).  
 
Scaling properties of the spectrum for DDEs with large delay  
Matthias Wolfrum (Weierstrass Institute for Applied Analysis and Stochastics, Berlin)  
22 Nov 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Delaydifferential equations play an important role in many applied problems including e.g. economy, neuroscience, and optoelectronics. For the dynamics of semiconductor lasers with optical feedback or coupling in many cases the delay caused by the finite speed of light has to be considered as large compared to the internal time scales of the laser being in the range of picoseconds. For a laser with optical feedback the classical LangKobayashi model shows a large variety of dynamical behavior related to the large delay, including the coexistence of many periodic solutions with different stability properties, high dimensional chaos and other. Starting from these phenomena, we investigate typical phenomena in delaydifferential equations (DDEs) where the delay time tends to infinity. We show that the spectrum of linear delay differential equations with large delay splits into two different parts. One part, called the strong spectrum, converges to isolated points when the delay parameter tends to infinity. The other part, called the pseudocontinuous spectrum, accumulates near criticality and converges after rescaling to a set of spectral curves, called the asymptotic continuous spectrum. We show that the spectral curves and strong spectral points provide a complete description of the spectrum for sufficiently large delay and can be comparatively easily calculated by approximating expressions. The abstract results will be illustrated by by some examples.  
 
Zero dynamics and funnel control of linear differentialalgebraic systems  
Thomas Berger (Ilmenau University of Technology, Germany)  
17 Nov 2010  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
We consider linear differentialalgebraic equations of the form E\dot{x}_(t) = Ax(t) + Bu(t) y(t) = Cx(t) ; (1) for E,A \in R^{n \times n}, B,C^{T} \in R^{n \times m} and regular matrix pencil sEA \in R[s]^{n \times n}, i.e. det(sEA) \in R[s]\{0}. Furthermore we assume that the transfer function G(s) = C(sEA)^{1}B has proper inverse, i.e. G^{1}(s) exists and lim _{s \rightarrow \infty} G^{1}(s) = D for some D \in R^{m \times m}. For this class of systems a so called `zero dynamics form' which is a simple ("almost" a normal) form of the DAE is derived; it is a pendant to the wellknown ByrnesIsidori form for ODE systems. The `zero dynamics form' is exploited to characterize the zero dynamics of (1) by (A,E,B)invariant subspaces; structural properties such as stable zero dynamics, minimum phase, and highgain stabilizability are also characterized. Finally, the zero dynamics form is the main mathematical tool to show that the `funnel controller', that is a timevarying proportional output error feedback u(t) = k(t)e(t), achieves for all DAE systems (1) with stable zero dynamics that the output signal y(\dot) tracks a reference signal y_{ref}(\dot) with respect to prespecified transient behaviour.  
 
Initialising Decadal Prediction in HadCM3 with RAPID Array Observations  
Leon Hermanson (University of Reading/Met Office)  
16 Nov 2010  Harrison 101 Tuesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics 
The RAPID array consists of several moorings at about 26°N in the Atlantic that measure temperature and salinity from which the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and its components at this latitude can be determined. The main aim of the VALue Of the RAPID array (VALOR) project is to assess the value of the RAPID array observations for predictions of the Atlantic MOC and its impact on climate. In addition, the project will explore a range of issues concerning the design of a potentional MOC prediction system. One of the models used in this work is the Hadley Centre HadCM3 model. In this work we have investigated the issues that arise when trying to initialise the HadCM3 model with the RAPID observations. This has initially been investigated in an idealised setting where pseudoobservations from the same model are used to reconstruct a known transport. Leon is a Research Fellow at University of Reading, but is currently seconded to the Met Office, where he is working in the Decadal Climate Prediction group. He is visiting the College for the entire week 159 Nov to work with Tom Fricker and Chris Ferro, so will be available to talk to about any aspect of his seminar, or his wider work, during that time.  
 
Probabilistic transient envelope: Characterizing Disturbances and Perturbations.  
Iakovos Matsikis  
16 Nov 2010  Harrison 101 Tuesday 9am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
We study the transient effect of deterministic or stochastic distrubances on a system that is perturbed deterministically or stochastically by constructing a transient envelope. The envelope is constructed with intensive simulation and it allows us to calculate the initial structures that cause amplification and attenuation over all time steps of interest, the biggest and smallest values the system might assume and the probability that the output belongs in certain bounded intervals. For application we use population projection matrices.  
 
Finescale structure formation in Saturn's rings  
Henrik Latter (University of Cambridge)  
15 Nov 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Recent radio and UV occultation experiments carried out by the Cassini spacecraft have revealed that swathes of Saturn's A and Bring support finescale axisymmetric patterns. This 'microstructure' is surprisingly regular, possessing wavelengths between 150 and 250 metres, and is probably driven by a pulsational instability of viscous origin. Using a simple hydrodynamical model, I show how this finescale quasiperiodic structure is related to nonlinear wave trains associated with the instability. I will also examine how variations and `defects' in the waves' phase and amplitude may relate to irregular features on largerscales. This is the 31st Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics".  
 
The climate and habitability of planets orbiting red dwarf stars  
Manoj Joshi (NCAS Climate, Reading)  
8 Nov 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
The concept of the habitable zone, or the region in which a planet can support liquid water at its surface, is almost ubiquitous in studies of "astrobiology", or the study of life in the universe. The habitable zone becomes especially interesting when considering red dwarf stars, or those stars with a mass between 0.1 and 0.5 times that of the Sun. On the one hand, red dwarfs are far more common than sunlike stars, and are thought to maintain their mean luminosity for much longer; on the other hand a red dwarf's habitable zone is so close to the star that phenomena such as tidal locking and stellar flares might be important in determining whether or not a planet can support an atmosphere (or even life). In this talk I'll review research on the habitable zone, especially with regard to red dwarf stars; work which shows that while the tidal locking of planets orbiting red dwarfs is not a barrier to habitability, stellar activity might be; and finally how all this is relevant to present and future planetfinding space missions.  
 
Buoyant plumes: simple models and largeeddy simulation  
Ben Devenish (Met Office)  
3 Nov 2010  Harrison 106 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
NOTE  THIS IS THE SEMINAR POSTPONED FROM 27th OCTOBER. Examples of buoyant plumes abound in both natural and manmade situations: the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland and the plume generated by the fire at the Buncefield oil depot in December 2005 are just two wellknown examples. The ability to predict the dispersion of any resulting hazardous material was demonstrated with dramatic effect earlier this year and provides a clear motivation for the study of buoyant plumes. Despite their obvious complexity, buoyant plumes have been successfully described by relatively simple models. In this talk I will review these models and then consider what further insight can be gained from largeeddy simulations. I will also present results on more complicated but realistic scenarios such as the effect on the plume of a crosswind.  
 
The role of global manifolds in the transition to chaos in the Lorenz system  
Bernd Krauskopf (University of Bristol)  
1 Nov 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
joint work with Hinke Osinga (University of Bristol) and Eusebius Doedel (Concordia University). The Lorenz system still fascinates many people because of the simplicity of the equations that generate such complicated dynamics on the famous butterfly attractor. This talk addresses the role of twodimensional stable manifolds of the origin and of saddle periodic orbits in organising the overall dynamics. These global objects need to be computed numerically with specialized algorithms. We present an approach that is based on the continuation of orbit segments, defined as solutions of suitable boundary value problems. In this way, we are able to study bifurcations of global manifolds as the Rayleigh parameter of the Lorenz system is changed. We show how the entire phase space of the Lorenz system is organised and how the manifolds change dramatically during the transition to chaotic dynamics. The delicate structure of global manifolds that we find also demonstrates the accuracy of the computations.  
 
***** SEMINAR POSTPONED TO 3rd NOVEMBER *****  
Ben Devenish (***** SEMINAR POSTPONED TO 3rd NOVEMBER *****)  
27 Oct 2010  Harrison 101 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
***** SEMINAR POSTPONED TO 3rd NOVEMBER *****  
 
On Finite Element Methods for Fully Nonlinear Elliptic Equations of Second Order  
Klaus Boehmer (University of Marburg)  
25 Oct 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
For the first time, we present for the general case of fully nonlin ear elliptic differential equations of second order a nonstandard C1 finite element method (FEM). We consider, throughout the paper, two cases in parallel: For convex, bounded, polyhedral domains in Rn, or for C2 bounded domains in R2, we prove stability and convergence for the corresponding conforming or nonconforming C1 FEM, resp. The classical theory of discretization methods is applied to the differential operator or the combined differential and the boundary operator. The consistency error for satisfied or violated boundary conditions on polyhedral or curved domains has to be estimated. The stability has to be proved in an unusual way. This is the hard core of the paper. Essential tools are linearization, a compactness argument, the interplay between the weak and strong form of the linearized operator and a new regularity result for solutions of finite element equations. An essential basis for our proofs are Davydov’s results for C1 FEs on polyhedral domains in Rn or of local degree 5 for C2 domains in R2. Our proof for the second case in Rn, includes the first essentially as special case. The method applies to quasilinear elliptic problems not in divergence form as well. A discrete Newton methods converges locally quadratically, essentially independently of the actual grid size by the mesh independence principle.  
 
Flows on real networks  
David Arrowsmith (Queen Mary)  
18 Oct 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Evolution of magnetic helicity with the solar cycle: observations and dynamo theory  
Kirill Kuzanyan ((1) IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (2) National Astronomical Observatories of China, B)  
12 Oct 2010  Harrison 101 Tuesday 9am  Applied Mathematics 
We review the long term systematic observation of solar vector magnetic fields at several observatories in the USA, China and Japan. The data sample at Huairou Solar Observing station of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Beijing) cover the whole period 19882005 which is the longest available systematic dataset of threecomponent magnetic field in solar active regions over the two consecutive solar cycles 22 and 23. We can apply to this sample a selfconsistent averaging procedure which is the observational proxy to the averaging over the ensemble of turbulent pulsations. Thus we have obtained largescale coherent structures resembling the mean magnetic field. It obeys Hale’s polarity rule for sunspots and magnetic fields in quiet photosphere, in accord with other observational results. We also use the data sample to compute current helicity and twist. They are important observational proxies of magnetic helicity which is the invariant in MHD flows. These helical parameters demonstrate hemispheric sign rule: in the northern/southern hemispheres their signs are predominantly negative/positive. However, based on the data sample covering almost overall 22 year magnetic solar cycle we have established specific areas in latitude and time when they are regularly inverted, mainly in the beginning at the end of the sunspot butterfly wings. In solar dynamo models helicity can be used as an important nonlinear drive controlling growth of the solar cycle, and at the same time it is a proxy of the alphaeffect which is a measure of regeneration of the poloidal field from the toroidal one. We discuss possible implications of our observational findings in the light of the solar dynamo. 30th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics".  
 
Bifurcations in generalization of KuramotoSkaguchi model of coupled phase oscillators  
Oleksandr Burylko (National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine)  
11 Oct 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
We consider the extension of popular Kuramoto (KuramotoSakaguchi) model of globally coupled phase oscillators with the phase shift in coupling function that depends nonlinearly on the order parameter. This system was proposed by A.Pikovsky and M.Rosenblum (Phys. Rev. Lett. (2007), Physica D (2009). We discuss bifurcations of transition from full synchronization to desyncronization through different clustering states. We show that the typical way of this transition passes through different heteroclinic bifurcations. The obtained results are mostly based on the lemma about localization of equilibria that was proved. Also, we describe the multistability that occurs in the system.  
 
Librationally driven flow in triaxial ellipsoids.  
Keke Zhang  
5 Oct 2010  Harrison 101 Tuesday 9am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
The oscillations of rotating fluids and their applications to stars and planets  
Michel Rieutord (Laboratoire Astrophysique de Toulouse)  
4 Oct 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Stars and planets are all rotating. Due to the conservation of angular momentum, this leads to specific oscillations known as inertial oscillations. These oscillations modify the lowfrequency oscillation spectrum of these bodies and introduce new phenomena which I shall try to describe in a simple manner. I'll present, for instance, some of the peculiarities of these oscillations (like singularities) and the role they play in the dynamics of tidally interacting bodies like stars harbouring a hot Jupiter. 29th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics".  
 
California Hottest and Coldest Days: Their Largescale Weather Patterns, Extreme Statistics, Downscaling, and Further Questions  
Richard Grotjahn (Atmospheric Science Program, Univ. of California, Davis, U.S.A.)  
19 Jul 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Extreme hot days as defined for the California central valley (CV) have a characteristic large scale structure that affects much of the west coast of North America as well. Extreme cold air outbreaks affect much of the southwestern United States. The patterns for both types of extreme events (EEs) will be briefly summarized, including statistically highly significant regions far from California. Simple statistics (boostrap resampling and simple tail tests) for assigning significance to parts of the EE patterns in both cases will be summarized. The EE patterns for the hottest 1% of summer days have been compared to daily weather maps in a simple calculation of a daily anomaly 'HDA index' to hindcast (and forecast) hottest days in daily anomaly values. The 'HDA index' captures ~1/2 of the hottest 1% days from a 25 year period using a peaks over a threshold test to find the highest 1% of HDA index and CV observed temperature. Perhaps unexpectedly, the HDA index has high correlation with maximum temperatures on nearnormal and belownormal dates as well (overall correlation between daily maximum temperature at central valley stations and HDA index: 0.84). Remaining questions include how the large scale patterns develop dynamically and improved extreme statistics.  
 
Simple statistical methods for complex ecological dynamics  
Simon Wood (University of Bath)  
21 Jun 2010  Harrison 215 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Mathematical analysis of circadian systems.  
Ozgur Akman  
15 Jun 2010  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Circadian oscillations are universal, controlling 24hour rhythms of metabolism, physiology and behaviour in organisms ranging from humans to cyanobacteria. The regulatory gene networks underlying these oscillations have proved to be useful systems for quantifying the relationship between the structures of biochemical systems and their higher order properties. By constructing mathematical models of key circadian organisms and analysing the models using techniques derived from nonlinear dynamics, insights can be obtained into the reasons why circadian networks have considerably more complex architectures than the minimal negative feedback loop required for entrainable oscillations. Recent results obtained from modelling a range of circadian species suggest that one of the possible benefits of the high feedback loop complexity characteristic clock networks is the increased functional flexibility that such architectures confer. Moreover, the techniques developed to construct and analyse the models have potential applicability to a broader range of signalling pathways, particularly with respect to parameterfitting and sensitivity analysis.  
 
Mathematical modelling of the active process of hearing in insects and mammals  
Alan Champneys (University of Bristol)  
14 Jun 2010  Harrison 106 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Hearing organs in mammals are remarkable in that a passive signal is electromechanically amplified over several orders of magnitude within the cochlear itself before any neural processing has taken place. In the insect world, the male mosquito also has a highly developed active hearing process, whose function is crucial to the mating process. It has recently been proposed, based on data from the bull frog, that the conceptual model of a Hopf bifurcation normal form captures all the features of the cochlear amplifier and that this might be a universal model across many species. The aim of this talk is to challenge this assertion and to show that there is no substitute for ab initio mathematical modelling that on the one hand attempts to capture the true physics and on the other hand is sufficiently simple to be amenable to qualitative as well as quantitative understanding. In particular I shall present recent work with Avitable and Homer based on the experiments in the lab of Robert in Bristol on a new mathematical model for the mosquito hearing organ. The organ is far more primitive than the mammalian cochlear and at bottom level can be described by a seesaw like lever arm that is attached to many threads that can provide mechanical stimulus in the form of a "twitch". The model is shown to capture the amplification of lowlevel sound, quenching of high input hysteresis and selfoscillation that is observed in live insects. I shall also present ongoing work with Szalai, Homer, O'Maoileidigh and JÃ¼licher together with experimental teams in Bristol and Keele on mathematical models for the outerhair cells that are thought to cause the active process within mammalian hearing. We show that this model displays a periodically forced cusp bifurcation, an unfolding of which is also able to show the characteristic 1/3growth law that a Hopf bifurcation normal form displays. We also show how the dominant features of this model produce a very different kind of simple model, this is able to match experimental data in showing regions of active amplification with different amplitudedependent exponents.  
 
Evolution 1  ID 0: One more case of biological complexity resolved.  
Orkun Soyer  
8 Jun 2010  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
The molecular basis of chemotaxis in the model organism Escherichia coli requires 7 signalling proteins, interacting in specific ways. The resulting dynamical system has nontrivial features including high sensitivity and precise adaptation. It remains unknown, how such a relatively complex system could have evolved and through which intermediary systems. This results in bacterial chemotaxis and the underlying signalling networks to be presented as an evolutionary puzzle. The lack of evolutionary understanding also limits our ability to extend the findings from E. coli to other species, which show remarkable differences to E. coli both in response dynamics and network structure. Using a mathematical approach we explore the potential evolutionary paths in chemotaxis. In particular, we reduce potential chemotaxis strategies to a simple formalism containing few key parameters that correspond to biological implementation of such strategies. We then compare the performance of such strategies under different parameter regimes. This yields a plausible evolutionary path from simple networks with straightforward dynamics to networks with adaptive dynamics. Interestingly, while the evolutionary transition can be driven only by selection for increased chemotaxis performance, the optimal performance can be achieved by different strategies under different parameter regimes (i.e. biological implementations).  
 
Dynamical Systems and Complex Networks: Are such Theories Useful for Neuroscience and Earth Sciences?  
Juergen Kurths (PIK, Potsdam)  
7 Jun 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Complex networks were firstly studied by Leonhard Euler in 1736 when he solved the Königsberger Brückenproblem. Recent research has revealed a rich and complicated network topology in various model systems as well as in several fields of applications, such as transportation and social networks, or the WWW. It will be discussed whether this approach can lead to useful new insights into rather large complex systems or whether it is fashionable only to interpret various phenomena from this viewpoint and publish papers on that. A challenging task is to understand the implications of complex network structures on the functional organization of the brain activities. We investigate synchronization dynamics on the corticocortical network of the cat and find that the network displays clustered synchronization behaviour and the dynamical clusters coincide with the topological community structures observed in the anatomical network. Next we consider an inverse problem: Is there a backbonelike structure underlying the climate system? For this we reconstruct a global climate network from temperature data. Parameters of this network, as betweenness centrality, uncover relations to global circulation patterns in oceans and atmosphere. We especially study the role of hubs in the flows of energy and matter in the climate system. This new approach seems to be promising for understanding the dynamics of changing climate and its impacts.  
 
Statistical Attractors and the Convergence of Time Averages  
Ozkan Karabacak  
1 Jun 2010  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
There are various notions of attractor in the literature, including the ideas of measure (Milnor) attractors and statistical (Ilyashenko) attractors. We relate the notion of statistical attractor to that of the essential omegalimit set and prove some elementary results about these. In addition, we consider the convergence of time averages along trajectories. Ergodicity implies the convergence of time averages along almost all trajectories for all continuous observables. For nonergodic systems, time averages may not exist even for almost all trajectories. However, averages of some observables may converge; we characterize conditions on observables that ensure convergence of time averages even in nonergodic systems.  
 
Excitability in ramped systems: The compost bomb instability.  
Sebastian Wieczorek  
25 May 2010  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
About one year ago, Catherine Luke and Peter Cox reported (in one of our internal seminars) on the "combostbomb instability" which represents a potential tipping point in the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing. In this strongly nonlinear phenomenon, biochemical heat release destabilizes peatland above some critical rate of global warming, leading to a catastrophic release of soil carbon into the atmosphere. This talk explains the "compostbomb instability" as a novel type of excitability where a stable quiescent state exists for different fixed settings of a system's parameter but enormous excitable bursts appear when the parameter is increased gradually (ramped) from one setting to another. We show that an excitable system with a ramped parameter forms a singularly perturbed problem with at least two slow variables and focus on the case with locally folded critical manifold. Analysis of the desingularised flow identifies an excitability threshold as a canard trajectory through a folded singularity and leads to the analytical formula for the critical rate of global warming.  
 
Normalized coprime representations for timevarying linear systems  
Markus Mueller  
18 May 2010  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
By considering the behaviour of stabilizable and detectable, linear timevarying statespace models over doublyinfinite continuous time, we establish the existence of socalled normalized coprime representations for the system graphs; that is, stable and stably left (resp. right) invertible, image (resp. kernel) representations that are normalized with respect to the inner product on L2(−oo,oo). The approach is constructive, involving the solution of timevarying differential Riccati equations with singlepoint boundary conditions at either +oo or −oo.  
 
CANCELLED Interfacial instabilities in a twolayer system with vertical electric current  
Sergei Molokov (University of Coventry)  
17 May 2010  cancelled cancelled cancelled cancelled  Applied Mathematics 
CANCELLED 28th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics". abstract TBA  
 
Evidence for Rotational Parametric Instability in Earth's Core from Analysing Relative Paleointensity Data  
Keith Aldridge (York University, Canada)  
11 May 2010  Harrison 170 Tuesday 12noon  Applied Mathematics 
29th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics" Evidence for Rotational Parametric Instability in Earth's Core from Analysing Relative Paleointensity Data Abstract We have developed an algorithm to search records of relative paleointensity for evidence of a parametric instability in Earth's core. Under the assumption that the spectrum of magnetic field intensity is a proxy for that of fluid velocity, the presence in Earth's core of a parametric instability will be seen in records of the magnetic field intensity. As long as the strain rate produced by either precessional or tidal forces exceeds the dissipation rate, a parametric instability will grow and subsequently decay repeatedly as observed in laboratory experiments. In the event that the externally imposed strain rate is close to the dissipation rate, a balance will result in what we call a steady state. Our algorithm has searched records of relative paleointensity from sedimentary cores from the past 2 million years. We smooth the data and set a threshold of significant change in the field which is segmented into intervals of growth, decay or steady state. According to our model of parametric instability, adjacent decays and growths recovered by our algorithm can be combined to give the magnitude of the external strain rate. Application of this algorithm to the SINT2000 data reveals distinct maxima that correspond to all the reversals of the field in the interval studied. Thus our model for parametric instability in Earth's core is consistent with the occurrence of magnetic field reversals at times when the external straining is largest.  
 
What can convection teach us about the nature of turbulence?  
Fritz Busse (University of Bayreuth)  
11 May 2010  Harrison 170 Tuesday 11am  Applied Mathematics 
27th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics". abstract: TBA  
 
Selfconsistent nonlinear MHD  
David Hughes (University of Leeds)  
10 May 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
26th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics". The majority of astrophysical dynamo modelling is performed using mean field MHD, an elegant theory of MHD turbulence in which smallscale interactions are captured by various transport coefficients, most notably the alphaeffect. Here I shall extend the standard mean field approach from a kinematic one  treating the instability of a magnetic field to a purely hydrodynamic basic state  so as to consider fully MHD basic states (with both flow and field). It is then vital to treat the momentum and induction equations on the same footing. This leads to a description of any resulting instability in terms of four tensors, two familiar and two new.  
 
Control Engineering Approaches to Systems Biology Research  
Declan Bates (University of Exeter)  
4 May 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 4pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Constraints on the relaxation of magnetic fields.  
Antonia WilmotSmith (University of Dundee)  
4 May 2010  Harrison 170 Tuesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
23rd Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics" full abstract: TBA  
 
Deciphering the Swineflu pandemics of 1918 and 2009  
Richard Goldstein ((NIMR, Mill Hill))  
30 Apr 2010  Harrison 170 (visualisation suite) Friday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
The devastating ‘Spanish flu’ of 1918 killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide, ranking it as the deadliest pandemic in recorded human history. It is generally believed that the virus transferred from birds directly to humans shortly before the start of the pandemic, subsequently jumping from humans to swine. By modelling how the viral sequences changes in human, avian, and swine hosts, we find it likely that the Spanish flu of 1918, like the current 2009 pandemic, was a 'swineorigin' influenza virus. Now that we are faced with a new pandemic, can we understand how influenza is able to change hosts? Again by modelling the evolutionary process, we can identify locations that seem to be under different selective constraints in humans and avian hosts, identifying changes that may have facilitated the establishment of the 2009 swineorigin flu in humans.  
 
Rules and Tools for Directed Evolution  
Florian Hollfelder (University of Cambridge)  
9 Apr 2010  Harrison 170 Friday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
I will address approaches leading up to directed evolution of functional proteins. First the observation of catalytic promiscuity is used to define functional relationships in enzyme superfamilies as a basis for phylogentic relationships for catalysis. Promiscuous activities could be remnants from the evolutionary ancestor that has been gene duplicated and adapted to fullfill a new function. Alternatively the observation of promiscuity could indicate that an enzyme is ‘pregnant’ with another activity, i.e. has the potential to be mutated or evolved into a new catalyst Specifically we demonstrate this principle with observations of strong promiscuous activities with rate accelerations between 109 and 1016 in a class of hydrolytic enzymes that share an unusual formylglycine active site nucleophile. Promiscuity in these enzymes is not limited to a single activity, but allows the same active site to catalyse up to six activities efficiently in addition to its native activity.. Evolution experiments should ideally analysed by highthroughput approaches, but require the development of special technologies. The quantitative assessment of large numbers of experiments is possible in waterinoil emulsion droplets that act as discrete picolitre reactors. These droplets, originally introduced by Dan Tawfik and Andrew Griffiths, are so small that highthroughput experiments on the order of > 108 become possible. Recent experiments to this end  in vitro expression, cellbased assays and continuous PCR reactions – will be discussed. See: http://www.bio.cam.ac.uk/~fhlab/index.html  
 
Validation of mesospheric analyses  
David Long  
1 Apr 2010  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
The Met office produce analyses of the middle atmosphere on a daily basis. The project is concerned with validating these analyses against observational satellite data, namely profiles obtained from the EOS MLS and SABER experiments. Systematic baises in the dataset will be presented and concluesions drawn. Particular attention will be made to the operational gravity wave paramterisation scheme used at the Met Office and it's contribution to the accurate representation of the middle atmospheric circulation and temperature fields. The design of experiments with the aim of reducing the described systematic baises will be presented, with particular attention to the impact of including turbulent heating (due to gravity wave dissipation) in the operational parameterisation scheme.  
 
Flux Rope Instabilities in Coronal Mass Ejections  
Bernhard Kliem (Potsdam)  
29 Mar 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
25th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics" Images of erupting prominences typically suggest the magnetic structure of a single linetied flux rope. Many prominence eruptions and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) begin with an approximately exponential rise, suggesting an instability. I will present numerical simulations of two relevant flux rope instabilities, the wellknown helical kink instability and the torus instability, using the forcefree linetied flux rope equilibrium by Titov and Demoulin as initial condition. The properties of these instabilities indicate which parameters of the initial configuration control whether the eruption stays confined or becomes ejective, evolves into a fast or a slow CME, shows strong or weak writhing. Exponential as well as powerlaw rise profiles can be modelled. Supporting quantitative comparison of the simulations with several well observed eruptions will be included.  
 
Averaging, passages through resonances, and captures into resonance in dynamics of charged particles  
Anatoly Neishtadt (Loughborough University)  
26 Mar 2010  Harrison 170 (visualisation suite) Friday 3pm  Applied Mathematics 
A study of motion of charged particles in the field of an electromagnetic or electrostatic wave propagating in plasma in the presence of a uniform stationary background magnetic field is a classical problem in plasma physics. Under different relations between parameters of this problem completely different dynamical phenomena take place. In this talk I am planning to describe phenomena of capture into resonance and scattering on resonance that occur in the case of slow high frequency waves and a weak background magnetic field. Capture into resonance may lead to unlimited particle acceleration along the front of the wave (so called surfatron acceleration).  
 
Population Modelling of Montastraea annularis  
Heather Burgess  
25 Mar 2010  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
We are studying the reefbuilding coral Montastraea annularis. Previously we have modelled a population of coral patches using Population Projection Matrices. This involves the discretization of size. This discretization is restrictive because there is not enough data to accurately assign transition rates between some of these discretized size classes. Therefore we are now aiming to build an Integral Projection Model for this population which assumes continuous size classes. Some initial results are presented together with a comparison to our PPM approach.  
 
Geomagnetic reversals from low order dynamo models  
Graham Sarson (Newcastle University)  
22 Mar 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
24th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics" TBA  
 
CANCELLED  
Ozgur Akman  
18 Mar 2010  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
HighFrequency SelfExcited Oscillations in 3D Collapsible Tube Flows  
Robert Whittaker (University of Oxford)  
15 Mar 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Experiments show that steady flow along an elasticwalled tube can become unstable to largeamplitude oscillations involving both the tube wall and the fluid. We consider a 'Starling resistor' setup  a finite length elastic tube attached to rigid end sections, through which an axial flow is driven by either a steady flux at the downstream end or a steady pressure drop between the ends. I shall describe a theoretical analysis of smallamplitude highfrequency longwavelength oscillations. We first consider the fluid mechanics (prescribed oscillations) and then the solid mechanics (to derive an appropriate tube law) in isolation. The two strands of work are then combined to investigate the full fluidstructure interaction problem for selfexcited oscillations. We determine the form of the normal modes and obtain expressions for the growth rate and frequency of the oscillations. The predictions from our modelling show good agreement with numerical simulations performed using the oomphlib C++ library.  
 
Dynamics of microscale swimmers  
Andrew Gilbert (with Feodor Ogrin, Peter Petrov and Peter Winlove)  
11 Mar 2010  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
The problem of swimming on small scales, for example microorganisms, has a long and rich history. On such scales fluid may be thought of as very viscous (i.e. low Reynolds number) and one has to imagine swimming in treacle. It turns out that motions that are not timereversible need to be adopted to have persistent motion in one direction, the socalled 'scallop theorem'. Such swimmers need to break the symmetry, and biological organisms have evolved a variety of ways of achieving this. With interest now in micromachines and microscale processing of chemical and biological materials  the idea of the labonachip  there is interest in developing tiny scale pumps, valves, gels, and machines that can swim, perhaps to deliver a drug very precisely. Recently a microscale swimming device has been developed here in Physics by the Biomedical Physics Group, consisting of elastically coupled magnetic beads whose motion is driven by an external magnetic field. The seminar will discuss the mathematical modelling of such swimmers, regimes, parameters and mechanisms.  
 
Molecular Programming  
Luca Cardelli (Microsoft Research)  
10 Mar 2010  Harrison 215 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Nucleic acids (DNA/RNA) encode information digitally, and are currently the only truly 'userprogrammable' entities at the molecular scale. They can be used to manufacture nanoscale structures, produce physical forces, act as sensors and actuators, and do computation in between. Eventually we will be able to interface then with biological machinery to detect and cure diseases at the cellular level under program control. The technology to create and manipulate them has existed for many years, but the imagination necessary to exploit them has been evolving slowly. Recently, some very simple computational schemes have been developed that are autonomous (run on their own once started) and involve only short (easily synthesizable) DNA strands with no other complex molecules. We need programming abstractions and tools that are suitable for molecular programming. Lowlevel molecular design is required to produce molecules that interact in the desired controllable ways. On that basis one can then design various kinds of 'logic gates' and 'computational architectures', which is where much of the imagination is currently needed. Then one needs programming languages both at the level of gate implementation (Andrew Phillips at Microsoft Research Cambridge has built a strandlevel DNA language and simulator), and at the level of circuit implementation (I will describe a Strand Algebra for implementing e.g. automata and Petri nets). Since DNA computation is massively concurrent, some tricky and yet familiar issues arise: the need to formally verify gate designs to avoid subtle deadlocks and race conditions, and the need to design highlevel languages that exploit concurrency and stochasticity.  
 
Microchaos in switched control systems with digital sampling  
Piotr Kowalczyk (University of Manchester)  
8 Mar 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
TBA  
 
Stability Analysis of Three Linearly Coupled Laser Oscillators  
Nicholas Blackbeard  
4 Mar 2010  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Coupled nonlinear oscillators exhibit rich and complex dynamics. Semiconductor lasers are particularly interesting and technologically relevant examples of nonlinear oscillators that feature an intrinsic amplitudephase coupling, quantified by the alphaparameter. This characteristic nonlinearity causes different dynamics that can be utilised for a wide variety of applications. Many of these require the use of laser arrays  where the desired behaviour ranges from a high power coherent radiation to that of robust chaos. We study a system of three lasers with nearest neighbour coupling as a first step towards understanding the complexity of larger arrays.  
 
Double Diffusive Magnetic Buoyancy Instability  
Lara Silvers (City University)  
1 Mar 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
The generation of magnetic field by velocity shear and the field’s subsequent evolution are of great importance to an understanding of the operation of the solar dynamo. While the current dynamo paradigm contains many complex interacting components, an integral part of all current largescale solar dynamo models is the creation of strong toroidal magnetic structures in the tachocline. Strong toroidal magnetic field is thought to be induced by the stretching action of the differential rotation on any background poloidal field. Subsequently, magnetic buoyancy instabilities of the generated field are invoked as the mechanism for the creation of distinct magnetic structures and their subsequent rise toward eventual emergence at the solar surface as active regions. In this talk I will focus on double diffusive magnetic buoyancy instabilities. I will discuss the criterion for this form of the instability to exist and show the first images from numerical simulations of this instability. This is the 22nd Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics"  
 
For Whom the Bell Tolls The mute (silent) bell in Cologne cathedral as a dynamical system  
Tassilo Kuepper (University of Cologne)  
25 Feb 2010  Harrison 170 (vis suite) Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
The “Kaiserglocke” in the cathedral of Cologne is known as a spectacular example of a bell withstanding to ring since the clapper remained in the center of the bell, hence showing synchronous oscillations with the bell. Based on a mathematical model describing the motion of clapper and bell as two connected pendula Veltmann has shown that such synchronous oscillation may exist if only 4 characteristic parameters (“length” and mass of clapper and bell) satisfy a specific relation, which turned out to hold in the case of the “Kaiserglocke”. To prove, though, that under such constellation it is never possible for a bell to ring requires more advanced mathematical tools which had not yet been developed a 100 years ago. In this talk we will supplement Veltmann's argument with regard to stability considerations. The system of clapper and bell can serve as a nice illustration for modern mathematical investigations. Since Veltmann has only be interested to derive reasons for nonringing of bells, he only needed to consider motions without contact between clapper and bell. True ringing relies on that contact. Mathematically that requires an extension from the classical system of differential equations used by Veltmann by “impacts”. This leads to the class of nonsmooth dynamical systems, an area of present research. Our analysis shows how the interaction between bell and clapper influences the motion; for example we also show how various forms of ringing may result from a change of the coupling between clapper and bell.  
 
The Theory of Configuration of Rapidly Rotating Giant Planets  
DaLi Kong  
18 Feb 2010  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
The classical homogeneous Maclaurin ellipsoid model for rapidly rotating planets is extended to a more realistic twolayer configuration by making use of a minimized energy principle combined with the hydrostatic free surface condition. By adopting oblate spheroidal coordinates, a universal semianalytical method is derived. The details about coordinate system, spheroidal harmonics, physical principles and special numerical integration techniques are intensively investigated.  
 
Recurrence and extreme behaviour in dynamical systems  
Mark Holland  
11 Feb 2010  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
We explore the statistical properties of chaotic dynamical systems, including case studies of the Lorenz and Henon attractors. We examine questions such as the long term distribution of typical solution trajectories and how frequently they visit a prescribed region of the space. We also discuss the issue of asymptotic (in)dependence: how long do we have to wait until the system settles down to some equilibrium and does this equilibrium dependent on the initial conditions?  
 
Condensation and metastability in stochastic particle systems  
Stefan Grosskinsky (University of Warwick)  
1 Feb 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
The zerorange process is a recently well studied stochastic particle system that exhibits a condensation transition. When the total density exceeds a critical value, a finite fraction of all particles condenses on a single lattice site, which can be characterized mathematically by the equivalence of ensembles via convergence in specific relative entropy. Although the transition is continuous, finite systems exhibit interesting metastable behaviour and phase coexistence. We establish a law of large numbers for the excess mass fraction in the maximum, which turns out to jump from 0 to a positive value at the critical point. The metastable states can be characterized heuristically as fixed points of a simple effective dynamical system.  
 
Amplified stochastic oscillations  
Alan McKane (University of Manchester)  
18 Jan 2010  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
I discuss a systematic approach to the modelling of various biological systems which starts from individualbased models, and then goes on to derive from these the corresponding deterministic equations (which are valid when the size of the system is large) and the leading order stochastic correction to them. The individualbased models are formulated as master equations, which allows use to be made of wellestablished methods from the theory of these equations to analyse their behaviours. In many cases large and welldefined stochastic cycles arise, even though the corresponding deterministic equations predict the system will approach a fixed point. Application of these ideas to predatorprey dynamics, epidemiology, cellular systems and autocatalytic reactions, amongst others, will be discussed.  
 
Generalized stochastic resonance models for abrupt climate changes  
Istvan Daruka (Eotvos University, Budapest)  
14 Dec 2009  Harrison 170 (3D vis suite) Monday 9.30am  Applied Mathematics 
The glacialinterglacial changes observed in Paleoclimatic temperature data of the middle to late Pleistocene epochs are analyzed in terms of two generalized stochastic resonance models including memory effects. The simple models account for the asymmetric, sawtooth shaped temperature oscillations occurring both at Milankovitch (100kyr) and millennial time scales.  
 
Longterm behavior of linear, stochastic, discrete time systems: Asymptotic amplification and attenuation in covariance  
Iakovos Matsikis  
10 Dec 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Lyapunov exponents are the tool widely used in studying the longterm dynamics of systems under the influence of randomness. They do not, however, take into account the effect of initial conditions and in general are difficult to compute. In this talk we will employ second mean analysis and ideas from linear algebra and will present the new notions of asymptotic amplification and attenuation in covariance. These new mathematical tools are depended on initial conditions, are easily computed and together with the second mean exponent they provide a framework of study for linear stochastic systems. Specifically they can be used in the construction of envelopes that capture the system's dynamics and make visible its asymptotic properties. We will finally apply our results to a population dynamics model.  
 
On the existence of quasipattern solutions of the SwiftHohenberg equation.  
Alastair Rucklidge ( University of Leeds)  
9 Dec 2009  Harrison HAR170 Wednesday 10am  Applied Mathematics 
 
Assimilating data into ocean models  
Chris Jones (University of Warwick)  
7 Dec 2009  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Abstract: The technologyenabled increase in data acquisition is well matched by that coming from computational modeling. The subject of Data Assimilation (DA) addresses the issue of making optimal use of both sides of this equation. Bayes’ Theorem provides a framework for DA, but this is only the beginning of what is interesting mathematically. I have come at this subject from the perspective of Lagrangian DA, which aims at assimilating data from ocean instruments that "go with the flow". I will argue that Lagrangian DA is both exciting and promising exactly because the Lagrangian flow can be very complicated (highly nonlinear, chaotic etc) even though the fluid flow field may be tame. I will suggest that this leads to a guiding principle for DA as a whole.  
 
Palaeoclimate and dynamical systems : challenges and promises  
Michel Crucifix (Université Catholique de Louvain)  
3 Dec 2009  Harrison 170 (3D suite) Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Palaeoclimate data present important challenges to the climate modeller : sparse data, dating uncertainties, high nonstationarities, and unknown physical constraints at these time scales. On which basis may one formulate tractable problems in such difficult conditions ? First, palaeoclimate do indeed show spatiotemporal structures owing to the effect of orbital elements, and phenomena of bifurcation may be visualised with continuous wavelet transforms. These offer opportunities of empirical model validation and selection, in spite of dating uncertainties. Other methods of identification, for example clustering methods to determine the number of regimes, show promise but will not be adressed here. Second, we do have a physical knowledge of the climate system, but often the physical models employed nowadays lack the dynamical range required to tackle palaeoclimate time scales. Consider this : building a 3000mthik ice sheet over 80,000 years imply a yearly mass imbalance of 37 cm/year : arguably below the precision of current models. Furthermore, physical mechanisms proper to palaeoclimate time scales, such as ice sheet instability, have received little attention in current models. The strategy is therefore to reduce empirically general circulation models, and build on this basis parameterisations that may be used and calibrated at more ambitious time scales. Several challenges, especially regarding stochastic parameterisations and carbon cycling remain unmet. Third, statisticians have been creative at developing parameter estimation methods suitable for dynamical systems. Here we show examples based on an implementation of the particle filter with auxiliary sampling, adapted for the parameter estimation problem. Such algorithm provide a basis to formulate the model calibration and selection problem on a sound statistical basis, making use of prior information obtained with more sophisticated models. The lecture will be articulated around these three themes, with examples based on Pleistocene palaeoclimate time series, simulations with the LOVECLIM earth system model of intermediate complexity, and particle filtering of simple dynamical systems.  
 
New nonlinear mechanisms of midlatitude atmospheric lowfrequency variability  
Alef Sterk (University of Groningen)  
30 Nov 2009  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
In this talk we will discuss the dynamical mechanisms potentially involved in the socalled atmospheric lowfrequency variability, occurring at midlatitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. This phenomenon is characterised by recurrent nonpropagating and temporally persistent flow patterns, with typical spatial and temporal scales of 600010000 km and 1050 days, respectively. We study a loworder model derived from the 2layer shallow water equations on a $\beta$plane with bottom topography, which is forced by relaxation to an imposed westerly wind. The loworder model is obtained by a Galerkin projection retaining only the Fourier modes with wavenumbers 0, 3 (zonal) and 0, 1, 2 (meridional). The amplitude of the bottom topography and magnitude of zonal wind forcing are used as control parameters to study bifurcations of equilibria and periodic orbits. In the loworder model equilibria destabilise through Hopf bifurcations, which can be interpreted in terms of mixed barotropic/baroclinic instabilities. These Hopf bifurcations give birth to two families of periodic orbits with different spatiotemporal characteristics. In turn, the periodic orbits bifurcate into strange attractors via the following codimension1 routes to chaos: perioddoublings, breakdown of 2tori, and intermittency. The dynamics on these strange attractors are associated with lowfrequency variability: the vorticity fields show weakening and amplification of nonpropagating planetary waves on time scales of 10200 days. These spatiotemporal characteristics are ``inherited'' (by intermittency) from the two families of periodic orbits and are detected in a relatively large region of the parameter plane. This scenario differs fundamentally from those proposed in the literature so far, which mainly rely on theories involving multiple equilibria. This is joint work with Renato Vitolo (Exeter), Henk Broer (Groningen), Carles Simo (Barcelona), and Henk Dijkstra (Utrecht)  
 
Vertical Discretisations for Coupling the Atmospheric Boundary Layer with the Large Scale Dynamics  
Dan Holdaway  
26 Nov 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
It is now well understood that for modelling the equations describing the large scale atmosphere the CharneyPhillips grid is preferable to the Lorenz grid. Not only does the Lorenz grid give a poorer representation of the dispersion relation, it also supports a single zero frequency computational mode. For modeling the atmospheric boundary layer it is preferable to use a Lorenz grid, otherwise an averaging is required in order to compute the Richardson number. We show, through linearisation and comparison of transients, that vertical configurations can be systematically compared for the boundary layer type problem. This can then be used in order to compare configurations of the complete coupled system and thus to aid in understanding the affect that the boundary layer has on both the computational mode and the overall dispersion relation.  
 
Numerical experiments for $L_1$norm regularisation in variational data assimilation.  
Melina Freitag (University of Bath)  
23 Nov 2009  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
In this talk we give a brief introduction to data assimilation and we show that data assimilation using 4DVar (4D Variation) can be interpreted as some form of Tikhonov regularisation, a very familiar method for solving illposed inverse problems. It is known from image restoration problems that $L_1$norm penalty regularisation recovers sharp edges in the image better than the $L_2$norm penalty regularisation. We apply this idea to 4DVar for problems where shocks are present and give some examples where the $L_1$norm penalty approach performs much better than the standard $L_2$norm regularisation in 4DVar.  
 
Evolution of biological system dynamics  
Orkun Soyer  
19 Nov 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Systems biology aims to understand the structure and dynamics of biological networks that underlie physiological responses, while synthetic biology ultimately aims to implement such networks. A fundamental question at the crossroads of these two fields is; what is the repertoire of biological networks that can underlie a given response dynamics? Answering this question could allow us to understand how networks underlying a given response would differ in different species and whether there are minimal networks, more amenable for synthetic biology implementations. In this talk, I will illustrate how evolutionary and mathematical approaches can be employed towards reaching such an understanding.  
 
SUPR Models : Models for the Study of the Uncertainty in PalaeoClimate Reconstruction.  
John Haslett (Trinity College, Dublin)  
18 Nov 2009  Harrison LT04 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics 
We present some modelling challenges that have arisen in the context of our work on palaeoclimate reconstruction. The simplest version of the the problem is as follows. A 10m core of lake sediment contains pollen deposited over the past several millennia. Samples ($n =150$) from along the core are examined under a microscope; each sample is rendered as a multivariate count vector $y^a_i$ of `ancient' pollen. Such vectors describe the composition of the ancient `pollen rain'. As such they provide information on the surrounding vegetation at times in the past; that is, ancient pollen is a `proxy' for ancient climate, for we know from modern data that vegetation composition reflects the climate $c$. Models built on such data, $D^m$, provide information on the probability distribution $\pi[yc, D^m]$. This in turn permits inference $\pi[cy^a_i,D^m]$ on the ancient climates corresponding to the samples. Variations on this are applied to other proxies (eg diatoms) in other archives (eg ocean sediment). At its simplest, palaeoclimate reconstruction returns `best climates' $\hat c^a_i$ corresponding to each $y^a_i$. Our concern in this paper lies with the underlying uncertainties and with the statistical models that we have found to be useful. For example there are many cores, and sample counts thus have spatial and temporal location $(s_i, t_i)$. Individually each $\pi[cy^a_i,D^m]$ is a statement of uncertainty concerning an aspect of a common latent spacetime process $C(s,t)$. How can we formalise the joint statistical inference? Our approach has been Bayesian, and has rested on stochastic process models including: Gaussian (Markov) Random Fields; a novel monotone stochastic process with continuous sample paths, based on a bivariate renewal process; and long tailed random walks with Normal Inverse Gaussian increments. The talk will illustrate their use in this joint inference, and some of the many remaining challenges. There are of course several scientific challenges to the underlying methodology, for example: To what extent can we rely on modern data to tell us about ancient climatevegetation relationships? Is climatechange the only driver of vegetation change. We look forward to some of the statistical challenges that these questions pose. This work has involved collaboration with, and stimulation from, many including Brian Huntley, Andrew Parnell, Mike SalterTownshend, Havard Rue, Alan Gelfand and Caitlin Buck. It has been supported by several grants from Science Foundation Ireland and by a welcome sojourn with Durham University's Institute of Advanced Study.  
 
Codimension two bifurcations arising in a system of phase coupled oscillators  
AnnKatrin Becher (Cologne University, Germany)  
17 Nov 2009  Harrison 170 Tuesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
A model of phase coupled oscillators is introduced describing a network with both excitatory and inhibitory interactions. The phase dynamics are modelled by a Kuramotolike system but without symmetries with regard to coupling. The coexistence of inhibitory and excitatory interactions and the asymmetry of coupling give rise to several different scenarios of synchronization. We study the model from the standpoint of bifurcation theory of lowdimensional dynamical systems. Therefore we focus on different configurations of coupling which lead to various bifurcation phenomenons with codimension >1.  
 
Chimera states in heterogeneous Kuramoto networks  
Carlo Laing (Massey University)  
16 Nov 2009  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Since 2002 several groups have studied "chimera states" in networks of identical phase oscillators, in which some oscillators synchronise while the remainder are incoherent. However only in the simplest case did the authors study the stability of such states. I show how to greatly generalise these results to other networks, deriving timeevolution PDEs with as many spatial dimensions as the network. The results emphasise the commonality of the dynamics of different networks, and provide stability information that was previously inferred.  
 
Visualising probabilistic forecasts  
Tim Jupp  
12 Nov 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
We consider the problem of creating maps of ternary probabilistic forecasts. As in traditional (binary) methods, continuous forecast distributions are projected onto discrete ternary forecasts, in which probabilities are assigned to three categories defined by quantiles of the current climatology. Our innovation is to think geometrically and consider each ternary forecast as a point in the triangle of barycentric coordinates (i.e. a 2simplex). This allows us to assign a unique colour to each forecast from a continuum of colours defined on the triangle. We show that a single easytointerpret map can convey full information from a ternary forecast in addition to a measure of the past skill of the forecasting system. Specifically, the forecast at each location is expressed by a circle whose colour encodes the ternary forecast and whose radius encodes past skill. We use the natural symmetries in the problem to assign colours to forecasts using the huesaturationvalue colour system. We derive mathematical measures of subjective certainty H, dominant category theta and misfit R. These measures are used to assign strong colours to forecasts that differ greatly from the climatology, and large circles to regions of high skill. Finally, we show how the concepts of uncertainty, reliability, resolution and calibration (which are usually taken to apply to binary forecasts) can be extended to ternary forecasts. Methods for interpreting these quantities geometrically are proposed. These ideas are illustrated with probabilistic precipitation forecast data from climate model runs, processed using "R" and displayed using "Google Earth".  
 
Using model reduction methods from control theory within variational data assimilation  
Caroline Boess (University of Reading)  
9 Nov 2009  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
In this talk the use of model order reduction methods from control theory within variational data assimilation is discussed. The focus is on fourdimensional variational assimilation – a method which requires the minimization of a series of simplified cost functions. These simplified functions are usually derived from a spatial or spectral truncation of the full system being approximated. In this talk a new method for deriving these simplified problems is proposed, based on control theoretic model reduction methods. Moreover, a new model reduction approach for unstable systems is considered. It is shown that this performs well within the state estimation problem occurring in data assimilation.  
 
What really matters in data assimilation?  
Dan Cornford (Aston University)  
5 Nov 2009  Harrison 101 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
In this talk I will consider the state of the art in data assimilation theory, focussing on our recent variational Bayesian approaches, but also discussing path sampling, particle filtering, 4DVAR and ensemble Kalman filters. I will then consider the question of what really matters in data assimilation  in particular I will consider the formulation of the data assimilation problem from a statistical perspective, and try to relate this to the real world application of data assimilation methods in operational settings.  
 
Dynamics and geometry near resonant bifurcations  
Sijbo Holtman (University of Groningen, NL)  
29 Oct 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
In this talk we focus on nonlinear parameter dependent dynamical systems exhibiting resonance. This phenomenon occurs if oscillatory subsystems interact, while the corresponding frequencies are rationally related. Such a situation appears in many realworld scenarios, e.g., coupled pendula, the moonearth system, and electric circuits. The main goal is to explain the parameter dependence of the qualitative behavior of the dynamics. In particular, we consider the geometry of parameter values for which resonance occurs. It turns out that in the nondegenerate case the geometry is given by the wellknown 2dimensional Arnol'd resonance tongue. A mildly degenerate case corresponds to a more complicated 4dimensional geometry, which we describe in detail. We also present socalled recognition conditions determining to which of these two cases a given resonant family of dynamical systems belongs.  
 
Compressible Hartmann and mixed EkmanHartmann boundary layers.  
Krzysztof Mizerski (University of Leeds)  
26 Oct 2009  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
21st Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics" We consider the effect of compressibility in mixed EkmanHartmann boundary layers on an infinite plane ($z=0$), in the presence of an external magnetic field oblique to the boundary. The aim is to investigate the influence of the magnetic pressure on the fluid density, and hence, via mass conservation, on the mass flow into or out of the boundary layer. We find that if the $z$component of vorticity in the main flow, immediately above the boundary layer, is negative, then there is a competition between Ekman suction and the magnetic pressure effect. Indeed, as the magnetic field strength is increased, the magnetic pumping may overcome the Ekman suction produced by anticyclonic main flow vortices. Such competition may play a role in the solar tachocline, the region of strong shear at the base of the convective zone and a plausible site for the solar dynamo. Here field must be confined until it becomes sufficiently strong that, on escaping, it can rise to the solar surface relatively unscathed, thus giving rise to active regions. The EkmanHartmann boundary layer is the simplest model of a thin region with large shear and a magnetic field; our simplified model may therefore describe some of the important physics of the tachocline.  
 
A model for physicsdynamics coupling  
Bob Beare  
22 Oct 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Formulations of numerical weather prediction and climate models divide conveniently into the resolved dynamical core and the subgrid physical parametrizations. Improving these components is an ongoing area of research and development. Arguably less examined, however, is the coupling between these components. More research on the physicsdynamics coupling might therefore lead to significant improvements in future model performance. Here, we demonstrate a new approach to physicsdynamics coupling. We compare a full dynamics model with a model explicitly constrained to balance the large scale dynamics and the boundary layer parametrization.  
 
Using constraintbased optimization to model multilayer buckling phenomena  
Rorie Edmunds (University of Bath)  
19 Oct 2009  Harrison 004 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
A constraintbased methodology will be presented which has successfully been applied to a solid, elastic, frictional model for parallel folding. Conceived from investigations of the engineering design process, the constraintbased methodology has helped design engineers identify and understand the initial constraints and limitations placed on a system. Written as a set of algebraic expressions the design objectives and constraints can be formulated and optimal solutions found using numerical optimization techniques. A bespoke Constraint Modeller has been created to embrace the methodology. This is able to resolve large systems comprising of over 100 degreesoffreedom using a variety of optimization routines. Parallel folding is representative of multilayer geological systems undergoing buckling deformation and modelling the evolution of folds poses a significant problem. Simplifying down to a two layer formulation, the behaviour of the central interface is modelled using a number of points whose movement is constrained. Looking for least energy solutions, the smalldeflection model closely matches the sequential nature seen in experiments. Using the full largedeflection energy formulation, further phenomena are found which match experimental evidence. Additionally, by altering some of the parameters, the parallel folding model can admit solutions that are kink bandlike in structure. Thus insight is given into the transition between the different foldingtypes seen in nature.  
 
Geoengineering the climate: unthinkable last resort or optimal solution?  
Peter Cox  
15 Oct 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
The liquid top: precession and tides in planetary cores  
Andreas Tilgner (University of Goettingen, Germany)  
5 Oct 2009  Harrison 004 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
20th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics"  
 
Binocular rivalry  a new model  
Peter Ashwin  
2 Jul 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3.30pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
The effect of binocular rivalry is a wellknown phenomenon in the psychology of perception, where the brain will move between recognition of two conflicting images presented to each eye. It is particularly interesting as a system where the brain constantly "changes its mind" in the absence of any change to the input. This talk will discuss a newly developed model of the author and A Lavric, based on heteroclinic switching.  
 
Anomalous diffusion of migrating biological cells  
Rainer Klages (Queen Mary, University of London)  
29 Jun 2009  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Harper operators, equations and maps: a laboratory for strange nonchaotic attractors  
Joaquim Puig (Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain)  
15 Jun 2009  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
This talk is part of the workshop "Global Dynamics and Applications" held on 15/16 June 2009 in SECaM, University of Exeter. (http://secamlocal.ex.ac.uk/people/staff/rv211/woglodyn09.html)  
 
Phase transitions in statistical physics models  
Barrie Cooper  
11 Jun 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
From a physical point of view, macroscopic properties of a material such as its temperature, structure and magnetisation are determined by the properties and interactions of its constituent microscopic particles. A primary aim of statistical physics is to study these emergent properties of complex systems. Of particular importance are phase transitions, whereupon there is a qualitative change in the macroscopic properties of a system, such as the spontaneous demagnetisation of a ferromagnet at the Curie point. I will describe a family of statistical physics models exhibiting phase transitions and explore how representation theory and the algebraic properties of the operators in such models can help drastically reduce the complexity of the numerical calculations required to detect such a phase transition.  
 
Boundary layer dynamics in extratropical cyclones  
Ian Boutle (University of Reading)  
8 Jun 2009  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
19th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal "Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics"  
 
Wave propagation on adapting, inhomogeneous and unstructured grids  
John Thuburn  
4 Jun 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Solitons, homoclinic orbits and exponentially small phenomena in reversible systems  
Tomas Lazaro (Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain)  
1 Jun 2009  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Asymmetric Desynchronization and Ratcheting in Networks of Coupled Oscillators  
Ozkan Karabacak  
28 May 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
We analyze an example system of four coupled phase oscillators and discover a novel phenomenon that we call “heteroclinic ratchet”; a particular type of robust heteroclinic network on torus where connections wind in only one direction. We show that, for coupled phase oscillators, this type of heteroclinic network can exist as an attractor in phase space resulting in asymmetric desynchronization of certain pairs of oscillators. In other words, oscillators with natural frequencies w1 and w2 break synchrony for w1w2>0 but not for w1w2<0. Similarly, when w1=w2, arbitrary small noise results in a break of synchrony such that after the desynchronization the observed frequencies W1 and W2 satisfy W1>W2.  
 
The effect of mechanical forcing on buoyancydriven flows  
Remi Tailleux (University of Reading)  
18 May 2009  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Reconnection in braided magnetic fields  
Gunnar Hornig (University of Dundee)  
11 May 2009  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
A catalogue of singularities  
Jens Eggers (University of Bristol)  
27 Apr 2009  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
TBC  
Andrew Gilbert (University of Exeter)  
12 Mar 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
TBA  
Chris Jones (University of Leeds)  
9 Mar 2009  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
A Hamiltonian approach to variational data assimilation  
Ian Roulstone (University of Surrey)  
2 Mar 2009  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Extending semigeostrophic theory to include boundary layer diffusion  
Bob Beare (University of Exeter)  
26 Feb 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Since the seminal work of Hoskins (1975), the semigeostrophic model has proved invaluable in describing the dynamics of meteorological fronts and cyclone formation. The model has also been a focus for the mathematically inclined as, for example, the equations can be proved to be wellposed and can be interpreted in terms of variational principles. However, a weakness of the semigeostrophic model as an interpretive framework for climate models is that it contains no inclusion of the subgrid physical processes such as boundary layer diffusion. In this talk, I will review some of the existing approaches to including boundary layer diffusion in semigeostrophic theory and propose a more accurate formulation.  
 
Localised pattern formation  
Jonathan Dawes (University of Bath)  
23 Feb 2009  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
TBC  
Svitlana Popovych (University of Cologne)  
19 Feb 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Dynamical networks and graph theory  
Markus Kirkilionis (University of Warwick)  
16 Feb 2009  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Nonlinearities like massaction kinetics describe events created by collisions of molecules in a wellmixed environment giving them locally the same probability to meet each other. Moreover this probability is only dependent on the concentration of the mutual partners. In a deterministic approximation the dynamical system describing the evolution of molecular concentrations over time can be interpreted as defining a dynamical network, for example linking species together by the ability to be transformed into each other. Different feedback loops encoded in the nonlinearities will determine the qualitative behaviour of the system. In this talk we are looking at dynamical networks and ask a fundamental but unfortunately hard mathematical question which is currently discussed in many branches of complex systems theory and systems biology: What is the relationship between network topology and qualitative behaviour of such a dynamical network? The answer to this question will depend on what kind of information can be retrieved from different graphs associated to the dynamical system. In this talk I will discuss several such graphs that have been constructed for reaction systems which here will serve as a basic example of a dynamical network in general.  
 
Smoothing geometric maps and applications to KAM theory.  
Alejandra GonzalezEnriquez (University of Exeter)  
12 Feb 2009  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
We show that finitely differentiable diffeomorphisms which are either symplectic, volumepreserving, or contact can be approximated with analytic diffeomorphisms that are, respectively, symplectic, volumepreserving or contact. We prove that the approximating functions are uniformly bounded on some complex domains and that the rate of convergence, in $C^{r}$norms, of the approximation can be estimated in terms of the size of such complex domains and the order of differentiability of the approximated function. As an application to this result, we give a proof of the existence, the local uniqueness and the bootstrap of regularity of KAM tori for finitely differentiable symplectic maps.  
 
Numerical Methods For Weather and Climate Models  
James Kent (University of Exeter)  
5 Feb 2009  Harrison 101 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Numerical models for weather and climate have finite resolution in space and time; the governing equations are solved on the resolved scales while important processes occurring on smaller scales must be represented by subgrid models. The numerical schemes used to solve the resolved scales are not perfect; they suffer from truncation errors. A controversial issue is whether the truncation errors, by accident or by design, can be interpreted as representing some subgrid processes.  
 
Computer assisted rigorous hyperbolicity estimates in onedimensional dynamics  
Stefano Luzzatto (Imperial College)  
2 Feb 2009  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Damped wave equations with supercritical nonlinearities  
Sergey Zelik (University of Surrey)  
26 Jan 2009  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Bifurcation analysis of heteroclinic chains involving periodic orbits  
Thorsten Riess  
10 Dec 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
The bifurcation analysis of heteroclinic chains is important for many applications; such chains arise for example in biological models (cells) or physical models (lasers), and their existence is often connected with a rich variety of nearby dynamics. Recently, some of the theoretical and computational tools for the analysis of heteroclinic chains connecting hyperbolic equilibria have been extended to chains connecting hyperbolic equilibria and hyperbolic periodic orbits. The analytical results obtained via an extension of Lin's method can readily be applied to an equilibriumtoperiodicorbit cycle (EtoP cycle), giving rise to bifurcation equations for homoclinic orbits near the EtoP cycle. These analytical results are confirmed by numerical evidence for a concrete example, which is obtained by a computational method to find and continue EtoP connections in parameters. This numerical method is also based on the theoretical framework of Lin's method.  
 
The mean field approach to the transport of magnetic field  
Alice Courvoisier (University of Leeds)  
8 Dec 2008  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
18th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal 'Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics'  
 
Stochastic approximation of fast chaotic Hamiltonian degrees of freedom  
Wolfram Just (Queen Mary, University of London)  
1 Dec 2008  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
We restate the problem whether the Hamiltonian dynamics of slow variables coupled to a small number of fast chaotic degrees of freedom can be modelled by an effective stochastic differential equation. Formal perturbation expansions, involving a Markov approximation, yield a FokkerPlanck equation in the slow subspace which respects conservation of energy. A detailed numerical and analytical analysis of suitable model systems demonstrates the feasibility of obtaining drift and diffusion terms and the accuracy of the stochastic approximation on all time scales.  
 
TBC  
Renato Vitolo (University of Exeter)  
26 Nov 2008  Harrison 215 Wednesday 10am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Applications of delay differential equations in science and engineering  
Thomas Erneux (Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium)  
24 Nov 2008  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
The Holm NavierStokesalpha equation  
Andrew Soward (University of Exeter)  
19 Nov 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Multifractal analysis for nonuniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems  
Thomas Jordan (University of Bristol)  
17 Nov 2008  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Modelling and Dynamics of coupled laser  
Hartmut Erzgraber (University of Exeter)  
12 Nov 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Heteroclinic structures in small motifs of HodgkinHuxley neurons? Indication from a numerical study  
Thomas Nowotny (University of Sussex)  
10 Nov 2008  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Comparing deterministic and stochastic models for cell motility and domain growth  
Ruth Baker (University of Oxford)  
3 Nov 2008  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Probing the temporal powerlaw characteristics of the global atmospheric circulation  
Dmitry Vyushin (University of Toronto, Canada)  
30 Oct 2008  Harrison 103 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Climate variability on timescales longer than a year is often characterized by temporal scaling ("power law") behaviour for which spectral power builds up at low frequencies in contrast to rednoise behaviour for which spectral power saturates at low frequencies. We estimate temporal powerlaw exponents ("Hurst exponents") for the global atmospheric circulation of preindustrial control and 20th century simulations for the troposphere and stratosphere. We consider 17 most established climate models from the CMIP3 archive. We show that currentgeneration climate models generally simulate the spatial distribution of the Hurst exponents well. We also use simulations of an atmospheric GCM with different climate forcings to explain the Hurst exponent distribution and to account for discrepancies in scaling behaviour between different observational products. Our analysis demonstrates that at the surface regions of large power law exponents coincide with the regions of strong decadal variability, namely northern North Atlantic, northern and tropical Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. In the free atmosphere these regions are confined to the tropical and subtropical troposphere and stratosphere. The spectral steepness in the former is explained by its strong coupling to the surface and in the later by its sensitivity to the volcanic aerosols. We conclude that this analysis of how climate models capture the falloff of spectral power with frequency provides valuable physical insight into climate variability.  
 
Cointegration: an econometric timeseries tool applied to the carbon cycle  
Tim Jupp (University of Exeter)  
29 Oct 2008  Harrison 101 Wednesday 10am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Designing the dynamics of coupled oscillators  
Peter Ashwin (University of Exeter)  
22 Oct 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Vortices, waves and numerical schemes for mesoscale atmospheric dynamics  
Peter Bartello (McGill University, Montreal, Canada)  
20 Oct 2008  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
An overview of recent research on the wave/vortex dynamics of the mesoscale range of the atmospheric energy spectrum will be presented. The presence or absence of these dynamics in a variety of "realistic" models will also be discussed. A few of these reproduce the correct spectrum while most do not. It is argued that this may be attributed to their numerics and/or parameterisation schemes.  
 
Flood rich periods and flood poor periods in the UK's hydrological record  a new way of thinking through 21st century flood risk?  
Stuart Lane (University of Durham)  
20 Oct 2008  Harrison 106 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Small Gain Theorems and Feedback Loops  Can They Really Be Relevant in Modelling Endangered Plants?  
Stuart Townley (University of Exeter)  
15 Oct 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
A lattice Boltzmann formulation for magnetohydrodynamics with currentdependent resistivity  
Paul Dellar (University of Oxford)  
13 Oct 2008  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Astrophysical applications of selfsimilar flows  
YuQing Lou (Tsinghua University, China)  
6 Oct 2008  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
17th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal 'Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics' *** Astrophysical research activities at Tsinghua University China are briefly described. We present new results on selfsimilar hydrodynamics and magnetohydrodynamics under selfgravity. Astrophysical applications include star formation, planetary nebulae, stellar collapses, rebound shocks of supernovae, galactic bulge evolution and so forth. We also describe astrophysical voids in selfsimilar expansion.  
 
Reconciling an emissions model with a climate change model  
Peter Cox and Owen KellieSmith (University of Exeter)  
13 Jun 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Some climate models take (as inputs or control variables) scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions and output measures of climate change. The altered climate does not necessarily feed back into the emission scenarios. This workinprogress aims to identify the space of feasible emission scenarios, via a highly simpliﬁed economic model in which emissions are fed back as a model output.  
 
Determining Convergence Rates: Order of Accuracy vs Function Continuity.  
Dan Holdaway (University of Exeter)  
30 May 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
The relation between order of accuracy and convergence rate for simple linear finite difference schemes for differentiation and advection is examined theoretically and empirically. When a function is sufficiently smooth convergence will be given by the order of accuracy of the scheme. For less smooth functions convergence rate for differentiation can be determined from the function's spectral slope. Convergence for advection of a non smooth function involves an interaction between order of accuracy and spectral slope.  
 
Dynamics of aircraft on the ground  
Bernd Krauskopf (University of Bristol)  
29 May 2008  Harrison 170 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Systematic strategies for stochastic modelling of climate variability  
Christian Franzke (British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge)  
19 May 2008  Harrison 203 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
The climate system has a wide range of time scales for important physical processes, ranging from organized synoptic scale weather systems on a daily time scale, extratropical lowfrequency variability on a time scale of 10 days to months, to decadal time scales of the coupled atmosphereocean system. An understanding of the processes acting on these different time scales is important since all these processes interact with each other due to the nonlinearities in the governing equations. The spatial structure of extratropical variability can be described by only a few teleconnection patterns. The two most prominent examples are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the PacificNorth American (PNA) pattern. These teleconnection patterns explain a large amount of the total variability, have a strong impact on surface climate and are related to climate change. In atmosphereocean science, slowly evolving largescale structures like the NAO and PNA, and their statistical behavior, are often of the most interest, and yet the computational power of complex climate models is spent on resolving the smallest and fastest variables in the system. Reduced models for only the most important teleconnection patterns provide computationally feasible alternatives for calculating the statistical behavior of the climatologically relevant slow variables. These reduced models give also insight into the dynamics of the slow variables and their interaction with the unresolved variables. In these reduced models the fast variables are systematically represented by stochastic processes. In my presentation I will discuss systematic strategies to extract reduced stochastic models from data of complex atmospheric circulation models. The stochastic mode reduction strategy accounts systematically for the effect of the unresolved degrees of freedom and predicts the functional form of the effective reduced equations. These procedures extend beyond simple Langevin equations with additive noise by predicting nonlinear effective equations with both additive and multiplicative (statedependent) noises. The stochastic mode reduction strategy predicts rigorously closed form stochastic models for the slow variables in the limit of infinite separation of timescales. Even though there is only a very moderate timescale separation in the atmospheric flows the reduced stochastic models reproduce well the statistics of the complex circulation models. The reduced models have about 10 or less degress of freedom while the complex atmospheirc models have about 1000 degress of freedom.  
 
The phase relation between poloidal and toroidal magnetic fields in latitude and longitude observed in the cycles 2223  
Valentina Zharkova (University of Bradford)  
12 May 2008  Harrison 203 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Numerical wave propagation on the Hexagonal CGrid  
John Thuburn (University of Exeter)  
9 May 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
TBA  
Ingo Fischer (HeriotWatt University, Edinburgh)  
8 May 2008  Harrison 170 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Using the past to predict the future: what can we learn from 20th century and last millennium temperature changes?  
Gabi Hegerl (University of Edinburgh)  
28 Apr 2008  Harrison 203 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
16th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal 'Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics'  
 
Modelling the atmospheric boundary layer  
Bob Beare (University of Exeter)  
14 Mar 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
The atmospheric boundary layer is the turbulent layer above the Earth's surface with a thickness between 100m and 2km. It is responsible for exchange of momentum, heat and moisture between the surface and the free atmosphere, so is an important component of the climate system. This talk describes simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer as it changes from it's weak turbulence state at night to its strong turbulence in the day. The mixed phase state between the night and day time turbulence is defined more precisely than before and is shown to scale strongly with wind shear.  
 
Stability of rolls in rotating magnetoconvection with physically realistic boundary conditions  
Olga Podvigina (Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia)  
12 Mar 2008  Harrison 173 Wednesday 11am  Applied Mathematics 
15th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal 'Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics' *** We consider small amplitude Boussinesq convection in a horizontal layer rotating about a vertical axis with an imposed vertical magnetic field. Rigid electrically insulating no slip horizontal boundaries held at constant temperature are assumed. Depending on parameter values, convection at the onset can be steady or oscillatory. For the steady onset of convection rolls can emerge in a supercritical or subcritical bifurcation of the trivial steady state, and they can be unstable with respect to the same rolls flow rotated by an arbitrary angle. We study, for which parameter values convection at the onset is steady or oscillatory, and how stability of small amplitude rolls depends on the parameters.  
 
Optimization of ergodic averages  
Oliver Jenkinson (Queen Mary, University of London)  
10 Mar 2008  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Meanfield equations for weakly nonlinear twoscale perturbations of forced hydromagnetic convection in a rotating layer  
Vladislav Zheligovsky (Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia)  
10 Mar 2008  Harrison 203 Monday 11am  Applied Mathematics 
14th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal 'Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics' *** We consider stability of regimes of hydromagnetic thermal convection in a rotating horizontal layer with free electrically conducting boundaries, to perturbations involving large spatial and temporal scales. Equations governing the evolution of weakly nonlinear mean perturbations are derived under the assumption that the alphaeffect is insignificant in the leading order (e.g., due to a symmetry of the system). The meanfield equations generalise the standard equations of hydromagnetic convection: New terms emerge  a secondorder linear operator representing the combined eddy diffusivity, and quadratic terms associated with the eddy advection. If the perturbed CHM regime is nonsteady and insignificance of the alphaeffect in the system does not rely on the presence of a spatial symmetry, the combined eddy diffusivity operator also involves a nonlocal pseudodifferential operator. If the perturbed CHM state is almost symmetric, alphaeffect terms appear in the meanfield equations as well. Near a point of a symmetrybreaking bifurcation, cubic nonlinearity emerges. All the new terms are in general anisotropic.  
 
Convection in rotating cylinders: asymptotic theory and numerical simulations  
Keke Zhang (University of Exeter)  
7 Mar 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Forecasting complex systems: it's about dynamics, it's not about statistics  
Kevin Judd (University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia)  
6 Mar 2008  Laver 320 Thursday 12.00  Applied Mathematics 
In 1963 Edward Lorenz published a paper that changed the way scientists think about the prediction of geophysical systems. Two years earlier, Rudolf Kalman had published a paper that changed the way engineers thought about prediction of electronic and mechanical systems. In recent years geophysicists have become increasingly interested in Kalman filters, where as engineers have become increasingly interested in chaos. I will argue that prediction of complex systems like the weather has more to do with nonlinear dynamics than it has to do with linear statistics. A position with which I think both Lorenz and Kalman would likely agree. I will attempt to show why attractors, shadowing trajectories, nonlinear filters, optimal control, and other concepts from nonlinear dynamics are important in weather prediction, by first illustrating the ideas with Lorenz's 1963 example of a chaotic system, then confirming these results by experiments with an operational weather forecasting model.  
 
Revealing the ghost in the machine: noise and population dynamics  
Tim Benton (University of Leeds)  
3 Mar 2008  Harrison 101 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
A dwelltime approach to the stability of switched linear systems  
Özkan Karabacak (University of Exeter)  
29 Feb 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Switched linear systems arise as examples or generalizations of hybrid systems, especially in control engineering. A switched system consists of a family of different subsytems and a set of signals that controls the switching between these subsystems. In this talk switched linear systems and its stability problems will be introduced in general. One of these, namely, finding a sufficient condition on the minimum dwell time of the switching signal that guarantees the stability of switched linear systems will be considered and a new approach to this problem will be presented. The proposed method interprets the stability of switched linear systems through the distance between the eigenvector sets of subsystem matrices. Thus, an explicit relation in view of stability is obtained between the family of the involved subsytems and the set of admissible switching signals.  
 
Zeeman's nerve impulse model  
Martin Krupa (New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, USA)  
28 Feb 2008  Newman D Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
In early 1970's E.C. Zeeman proposed a three dimensional model of the dynamics of a neuron. The model is a slow/fast ODE with one fast variable and two slow ones and is a caricature of the HodgkingHuxley equation. In this talk we analyze the model of Zeeman using methods of geometric singular perturbation theory and blowup, veryfying the numerical predictions of the dynamics of the model. As a part of the analysis we discuss the dynamics near a singularly perturbed cusp.  
 
Magnetoseismology of the solar atmosphere: does really wag the tail the dog?  
Robert Erdelyi (University of Sheffield)  
25 Feb 2008  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Magnetic fields in star formation  
Daniel Price (University of Exeter)  
22 Feb 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Magnetic fields are observed in sufficient strengths to be important at every stage of the star formation process, from the dynamics of the interstellar medium in galaxies, in turbulent molecular clouds and in individual star forming cores. I will discuss our attempts to incorporate magnetic fields into numerical simulations of the fragmentation of dense cores and of star cluster formation from turbulent initial conditions using a Smoothed Particle Magnetohydrodynamics algorithm.  
 
Estimation of the correlation decay rate for chaotic intermittency maps  
David Natsios (University of Liverpool)  
18 Feb 2008  Harrison 203 Monday 11am  Applied Mathematics 
Chaotic intermittency maps give a nonlinear, nonGaussian method of generating long memory time series. In particular we study the symmetric cusp map, the asymmetric cusp map, polynomial maps and logarithmic maps. In previous studies by Bhansali and Holland, it has been shown that these maps can simulate stationary time series with a full range of values for the long memory parameter, including d = 0.5 which is usually considered nonstationary, d = 0 which is usually considered short memory and d < 0 which is usually intermediate memory. This gives us the opportunity to carry out a simulation study to investigate the robustness of various long memory estimation techniques in extreme cases and when the assumptions of linearity and Gaussian distribution no longer hold. We show that standard methods can give large bias and we introduce an extended dual parameter long memory model, which includes the standard oneparameter fractional difference model as a special case and also accommodates a boundary behaviour of the type not admissible in the standard model. We also consider extensions of the chaotic intermittency maps, including stochastic versions and a bivariate version of the polynomial map. Our dual parameter methods of long memory parameter estimation are once again compared to standard methods and methods of distinguishing between the stochastic maps are introduced.  
 
Machine learning in astronomy: time delay estimation in gravitational lensing  
Peter Tino (University of Birmingham)  
18 Feb 2008  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
A ray of light (or any other form of electromagnetic radiation, e.g. radio or xrays) travels along a geodesic, which could be locally curved due to the gravitational effect of clumps of matter like stars or galaxies. This is known as gravitational lensing. Gravitational lensing, caused by intervening matter along the line of sight, can give rise to interesting cosmic illusions like magnified and seriously distorted images of distant sources, sometimes splitting into multiple images. Since the distortion of the images depends on the distribution of matter in the lensing object, this is the most direct method of measuring matter (which is often dark) in the Universe. Quasar Q0957+561, an ultrabright galaxy with a super massive central black hole was the first lensed source to be discovered and it is the most studied so far. Gravitational lens creates two distinct images of Q0957+561. We attempt to recover the phase shift in the 2 lensed images of Q0957+561 using a model based approach formulated within the framework of kernel regression. In a set of controlled experiments emulating presence of realistic observational gaps, irregular observation times and noisy observations, we compare our method with other stateofart statistical methods currently used in astrophysics. We then apply the method to actual observations doubly imaged quasar Q0957+561 at several radio and optical frequencies.  
 
Nanoflares in the solar corona  
Mitchell Berger (University of Exeter)  
15 Feb 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Solar flares are magnetic storms in the sun's atmosphere. The distribution of flare energies is a power law over several orders of magnitude. The smallest flares (nanoflares) may be responsible for heating the coronal plasma to over a million degrees. The nature of nanoflares is unknown, as they are below observational resolution. In the 1980s Parker suggested that nanoflares occur when braided magnetic flux tubes reconnect. This talk gives a model of flux tube braiding and reconnection similar to selforganized forest fire models, with a power law energy distribution.  
 
Bayesian learning from the last glacial maximum on climate sensitivity  
Hermann Held (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany)  
11 Feb 2008  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
13th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal 'Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics'  
 
The Impenetrable Hedge – some thoughts on propriety, equitability and consistency  
Ian Jolliffe (University of Exeter)  
8 Feb 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
In weather and climate forecasting, hedging is said to occur whenever a forecaster’s judgment and forecast differ, and it is usually taken as evident that hedging is undesirable. Forecasts are often judged by computing a verification measure or score. A number of different scores are available in most circumstances, and to choose between them, various desirable properties of scores have been defined. Three ‘desirable’ properties of scores are linked to the idea that hedging should be avoided, namely propriety, equitability and consistency. It is fair to say that none of these properties is fully understood. This talk will provide some clarification and new insights, as well as some historical background. Nearly as many questions are raised as are answered.  
 
Control of beams and plates: a mathematical perspective  
Mark Opmeer (University of Bath)  
4 Feb 2008  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
The dynamics of wheel shimmy or good memory causes trouble  
Gabor Orosz (University of Exeter)  
1 Feb 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
The lateral vibration of towed wheels, called shimmy, may appear on airplane landing gears, motorcycle wheels, caravans, rear wheels of semitrailers and articulated buses, and it usually presents a safety hazard. The dynamics of wheel shimmy is studied when the vibrations are related to the elasticity of the tyre. In the corresponding stretchedstring tyre model, the nonholonomic rolling constraint is described by a partial differential equation (PDE) that is coupled to an integrodifferential equation (IDE) governing the lateralwheel motion. The coupled PDEIDE system can be transformed to a delay differential equation (DDE) by assuming travelling wave solutions along the contact patch. Investigating the stability of the stationary rolling motion reveals intricate stability charts where instabilities lead to periodic and quasiperiodic vibrations. These vibrations are found by numerical simulation and verified by experiments.  
 
Aerosol modelling in the Unified Model and their importance in global weather and climate  
Duncan Ackerley (University of Reading)  
28 Jan 2008  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Second mean analysis of stochastically perturbed population dynamics  
Iakovos Matsikis (University of Exeter)  
25 Jan 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Population Projection Matrices (PPM's) are mathematical models that describe the evolution of age or stageclassified populations. These models usually are stochastically perturbed, due to environmental reasons and their asymptotic dynamics are governed by the resulting spectra (Lyapunov exponents). This mean asymptotic analysis however, do not give satisfactory answers regarding the PPM's transient behavior. In this talk we study stochastically perturbed PPM's using second mean techniques. We plot pseudospectra and variance envelopes which capture the transient dynamics and discuss nonnormality of matrices and its implications in the population's transient evolution.
 
 
The acoustics and stability of swirling flow  
Nigel Peake (University of Cambridge)  
21 Jan 2008  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Towards the seamless prediction of weather and climate  
Tim Palmer (ECMWF, Reading)  
14 Jan 2008  Harrison 203 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Bursting dynamics in the neuronal systems  
Abul Kalam AlAzad (University of Exeter)  
11 Jan 2008  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Bursting is a relatively slow rhythmic alternation between an active phase of rapid spiking and a quiescent phase. It is exhibited by a wide range of nerve and endocrine cells, including pancreatic betacells, respiratory pacemaker neurons, dopaminergic neurons of the mammalian midbrain, thalamic relay cells, and pyramidal neurons of the neocortex. One of the major challeges in the theoretical neuroscience is to understand the dynamical and computational properties of bursters, and their underlying physiological mechanism both in the single cell and network levels. We examine synchronization phenomena in varying parameter regime for the bursting neuronal systems governed by standard minimal models, and emergence of clustering in the ensuing dynamics. We also present a method to compute the stability of the subspace formed by partial synchronous clusters.  
 
Convection and magnetic stability of the planetary cores  
Sergey Starchenko (IZMIRAN, Troitsk, Russia)  
7 Jan 2008  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Invasion Dynamics: Resilient vs. Vulnerable Populations  
Stuart Townley (University of Exeter)  
7 Dec 2007  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
In this talk we consider two interacting populations  a resident and an invader.
From uncertain models of each population we want to determine if the invader, initiated with negligible density, can dislodge the resident from steady state carrying capacity. Adopting robustness tools from control engineering, we show that resilience (robustness of non invasion) and vulnerability (non robustness and transient interactions) can be captured from pseudospectrum plots of linearised invasion matrices.  
 
Palaeomagnetic field and palaeoclimatic changes: observations from China  
Yongxin Pan / Rixiang Zhu (Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China)  
3 Dec 2007  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
12th Taylor & Francis sponsored seminar  Taylor & Francis are publishers of the journal 'Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics'  
 
A model for the pure bending of isotropic tubes: beyond the Brazier effect  
Khurram Wadee (University of Exeter)  
30 Nov 2007  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Tubular structures are common in engineering and biological settings. They provide an efficient way of carrying load but are also susceptible to elastic instabilities. Under conditions of pure bending, thin tubes are known to ovalize; the basic theory was formulated exactly 80 years ago but assumed that the ovalization occurs uniformly along the length of the tube. In this talk a novel treatment will be presented which identifies other routes to instability that provide a better approximation to the real behaviour of tubes. Furthermore, this new formulation is applicable to tubes made of auxetic or orthotropic materials.  
 
Asymptotics of large bound states of localised structures  
Jon Chapman (University of Oxford)  
26 Nov 2007  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Cat's eyes and Landau poles  
Matt Turner (University of Exeter)  
23 Nov 2007  Harrison 254 Friday 10 am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
The relaxation of a smooth two–dimensional vortex to axisymmetry is examined, after an instantaneous, weak external strain ﬁeld is applied. In this limit the disturbance decays exponentially in time at a rate that is linked to a pole of the associated linear inviscid problem (known as a Landau pole). As a model of a typical vortex distribution that can give rise to cat’s eyes, here distributions are considered that have a basic Gaussian shape but whose proﬁles have been artiﬁcially ﬂattened about some radius rc . A numerical study of the Landau poles for this family of vortices shows that as the location rc is varied, so the decay rate of the disturbance moves smoothly between poles as the decay rates of two Landau poles cross. Cat’s eyes which occur in the nonlinear evolution of a vortex lead to an axisymmetric azimuthally averaged proﬁle with an annulus of approximately uniform vorticity, rather like the artiﬁcially ﬂattened proﬁles investigated. It is found that ﬁnite thickness cat’s eyes can persist (i.e. the mean proﬁle has a neutral mode) at two distinct radii, and in the limit of a thin ﬂattened region the result that vanishingly thin cat’s eyes only persist at a single radius is recovered. The decay of non–axisymmetric perturbations to these ﬂattened proﬁles for larger times is investigated and a comparison with the result for a Gaussian proﬁle is made.  
 
Maximumentropy velocity profiles and boundary layer theory in turbulent flow  
Robert Niven (University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia)  
21 Nov 2007  Harrison 107 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
The maximum entropy method of Jaynes (1957) is used to determine the "most probable" steadystate velocity profile u(y) in several "classical" fluid flow systems, including axial flow in a cylindrical pipe (Poiseuille flow) and flow between parallel plates. In each case, the analysis yields an analytical solution for the velocity profile over the complete spectrum of laminar to turbulent flow, as a function of the maximum velocity u_{max} and a momentum parameter M. In each case, the predicted profile reduces to the wellknown laminar solution at M = 0, whilst for M > 0 it gives an equation which supersedes the semiempirical correlations commonly used for turbulent flow profiles. The main steps of the analysis and the predicted profiles are presented here. The analysis is then used to derive a new maximumentropy laminarturbulent boundary layer theory, for the velocity profile in steady flow along a flat plate. For M = 0, this reduces to the laminar boundary layer theory given in some texts, which approximates the PrandtlBlasius solution to the NavierStokes equation. For turbulent flow, it yields a previously unreported set of solutions.  
 
Solitary surface waves on fluids in electric fields  
Paul Hammerton (University of East Anglia)  
19 Nov 2007  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Maximum Entropy Production in planetary atmospheres  
Tim Jupp (University of Exeter)  
16 Nov 2007  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Atmospheric motions constitute a heat engine. As energy flows down temperature gradients from the tropics to the poles, so entropy is produced. Observations, and numerical simulations, suggest that the terrestrial atmosphere produces entropy at the "maximum possible rate". The currently developing theory of Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) provides a framework for interpreting these observations. In this talk I shall give an overview of MEP theory and its application to planetary atmospheres. In particular, the influence of surface drag on atmospheric entropy production is examined. A simple dynamical model is used to give insight into previous numerical results. The dependence of the MEP state on parameters such as planetary radius and rotation rate is then used to extrapolate the results to other planets.  
 
Invariant polygons in systems with grazingsliding  
Robert Szalai (University of Bristol)  
12 Nov 2007  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Relaxation Oscillations arising in the Thermal Convection of Rapidly Rotating Spherical Systems  
Ed Blockley (University of Exeter)  
9 Nov 2007  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
This work will make up the final chapter of my thesis and is concerned with studying the behaviour of the following PDE system:
which has been modified from the complex GinzburgLandau equation (CGLE) studied in previous work by the addition of a temperature gradient and thermal diffusion timescale .
Starting from the limit (for which we recover the CGLE featured in Blockley et. al.) we reduce and observe how the behaviour of the system changes becoming quasiperiodic before breaking down to chaos.  
 
Pattern transformation induced by an elastic instability  
Tom Mullin (University of Manchester)  
5 Nov 2007  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
A Review of Mantle Convection  
Francisco Pla (Depto. de Matematicas, Facultad de Ciencias Quimicas and IMACI, Universidad de CastillaLa Mancha)  
2 Nov 2007  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
The formation of the rocks indicates that viscosity in the interior of the Earth and planets strongly depends on temperature, and this inﬂuence is the fundament for understanding the mantle convection and subduction motions. This is the goal for which a convection problem with temperaturedependent viscosity in the NavierStokes equations is studied. The dimensionless hydrodynamics equations are considered in which the viscosity is an exponential function of the temperature ν(T ) = ν0 · exp(−γT ). This work studies the timedependent solutions in codim2 zones for different aspectratios, Rayleigh numbers, exponential rate γ and other parameters. A bifurcation study with the stability results for constant viscosity and variable viscosity are also exposed. This work is by Francisco Pla and Henar Herrero, Depto. de Matematicas, Facultad de Ciencias Quimicas and IMACI, Universidad de CastillaLa Mancha and Ana Maria Mancho, Instituto de Matematicas y Fisica Fundamental, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientiﬁcas.  
 
Delay dynamics in semiconductor laser systems  
Vicky Crockett and Hartmut Erzgräber (University of Exeter)  
26 Oct 2007  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Vicky Crockett Lasers with optical feedback can exhibit a wide range of complicated dynamics which can be useful or problematic depending on the desired application. In either case we need to know how to understand laser instabilities to achieve and control the desired type of dynamics. Much work has been done on a laser with little light reflected back in from a distant external mirror, modeled with delay differential equations. For a laser with a nearby external mirror and a large amount of reflected light, the composite cavity model is more appropriate. In such an approach, the system is modeled by ordinary differential equations coupled to a set of algebraic equations for the modes. The mode equations are dependent on the coupling mirror transmission, , and optical length difference between the laser and external cavity, dL^{o}. Bifurcation analysis is used to find regions of stable and chaotic dynamics on the plane of (T,dL). Hartmut Erzgräber Mathematical modeling and understanding the dynamics of coupled laser devices is of importance for many modern laser applications and holds various interesting problems for fundamental research. In the weak coupling approach a laser coupled to a filter can be modeled by delaydifferential equation, which has an infinite dimensional phase space. We will present a comprehensive bifurcation analysis with respect to the relevant parameters. This reveals several codimensiontwo points as organizing centers. The calculated bifurcation diagrams show qualitative agreement with experiments.  
 
The persistence of disease in an SIR model with selfregulation and seasonal birth rate  
Ben Mestel (Open University)  
22 Oct 2007  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Modelling the Atmosphere  
Dan Holdaway and James Kent (University of Exeter)  
19 Oct 2007  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
This seminar will consist of two twenty minute talks on numerically modelling the atmosphere. Numerical solutions to the Governing Equations cannot resolve all relevant scales. Processes that are larger than the grid length can be included in the model, however there are many processes that occur on a subgrid level. These subgrid process can interact with the resolved scale processes and affect the large scale flow. The large scale quantities can be solved by the numerical method, while the small subgrid scale processes need to be parametrized. Numerical Methods for Weather and Climate Models. Subgrid Models (SGM) can be added to the numerical scheme to act as the effect of the subgrid processes. All numerical schemes contain errors. If these errors equal the effect of the subgrid processes then there is no need for an explicit SGM. The numerical errors associated with the numerical scheme solving the resolved scale equations could provide an implicit subgrid model for the unresolved scales. Physics Dynamics Coupling. Proper coupling between the SGMs and the resolvable dynamics is key in obtaining accurate weather and climate forecasts. By examining the normal modes of the solutions, the spatial aspects of the coupled system are examined. Questions of particular interest are, what choice of thermodynamic variable works best? What choice of vertical staggering works best? What are the effects of nonuniform grid spacing?  
 
The transition to turbulence in confined shear flows  
Ashley Willis (University of Bristol)  
15 Oct 2007  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Spatiotemporal code generation with globally coupled oscillators  
John Wordsworth (University of Exeter)  
12 Oct 2007  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
For systems of globally coupled phase oscillators it is possible to find attractors that form symmetrical and robust heteroclinic networks. By detuning the natural frequencies of the oscillators it is then possible to break the symmetry of these networks. These dynamics can then be used to generate a spatiotemporal code from the input that has been fed into the system by means of detuning and this code can be used to classify the input accordingly.  
 
Controlling neurons  
Jeffrey Moehlis (University of California, Santa Barbara, USA)  
8 Oct 2007  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
The phase response curve (PRC) for a nonlinear oscillator describes the phaseshift of the oscillation due to an impulsive perturbation as a function of the phase at which the perturbation occurs. We consider how knowledge of the PRC for a neuron can be used to determine external currents which control the time at which the neuron fires. We first use variational methods to determine the optimal currents that elicit spikes at a desired time, showing that there is a unique current that minimizes a squareintegral measure of its amplitude. For intrinsically oscillatory models, we further demonstrate that the form and scaling of this current is determined by the model's PRC. We then propose a novel feedback control mechanism which allows one to control the phase of an oscillation, assuming only that the PRC is known and that a onceperperiod marker event, such as the time at which a neuron fires, can be detected. This work represents a first step toward feedbackbased treatment of ailments such as Parkinson's disease by using electrical deep brain stimulation, in which current is injected into the appropriate brain region to try to desynchronize pathologically synchronized neurons.  
 
The dynamics of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Annular Modes  
Edwin Gerber (Columbia University, USA)  
24 Sep 2007  Harrison 209 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Annular Modes are the dominant patterns of intraseasonal variability in the extratropical atmosphere. The NAO in particular characterizes a significant fraction of the wintertime variability in Eastern North America and Europe, and has been recognized in some form since the eighteenth century. I'll begin with a simple model based on random walks to explain why these patterns of variability always dominate statistical analyses of the extratropical circulation. I'll then move to a more realistic model, a dry general circulation model of the atmosphere, to probe the dynamics of the variability. Annular Mode and NAOlike patterns are created with the addition of idealized topography and heating anomalies approximating landsea contrast. We find that the NAO arises from the confluence of topographic and thermal forcing, and is best understood in terms of the eddy life cycle. We also find a parameter sensitive coupling between eddies and the largescale flow that extends the persistence of the variability on timescales of 10100 days. The feedback loop, however, is very sensitive to zonal asymmetries. This sensitivity is explored with a coupled oscillator model to illustrate the impact of standing waves on the eddymean flow feedback.  
 
Global transient behaviour: basins of attraction in experimental nonlinear dynamics  
Lawrie Virgin (Duke University, USA)  
13 Sep 2007  Harrison 170 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Periodicity and recurrence in a map with two halfplanes  
Arek Goetz (San Francisco State University)  
7 Aug 2007  Harrison 004 Tuesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
A Changing Climate for Prediction  
Peter Cox (University of Exeter)  
20 Jul 2007  Harrison 254 Friday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Standard climate model projections, which have shown the significance of global warming, must be redesigned to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation policy. In this seminar, Peter Cox explains the modelling that informed his & David Stephenson's paper in "Science" of 13.7.07, and invites discussion on climate prediction as an initial value problem.  
 
The seasonal cycle of gravity wave drag in the middle atmosphere estimated by an assimilation technique  
Manuel Pulido (UNNE, Corrientes, Argentina)  
26 Jun 2007  Harrison 209 Tuesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
11th TAYLOR AND FRANCIS sponsored lecture. T&F are publishers of the Journal Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics// A novel technique to estimate gravity wave drag from global scale analyses will be presented. It is based on the principles of fourdimensional variational data assimilation using a dynamical model of the middle atmosphere and its adjoint. The control variables are solely the horizontal components of gravity wave drag so that the minimum of the cost function that measures the differences between model states and observations gives the optimum gravity wave drag.// The assimilation technique is applied to estimate gravity wave drag using Met Office analyses as the initial conditions and the observations for the year 2002. The seasonal variations of the oneyear gravity wave drag estimation will be presented and analysed. Vertical variations in the sign and pattern of the estimated drag suggest filtering of the gravity wave spectrum by the background flow.  
 
Introduction to the new Nature Geosciences Journal  
Heike Langenberg (Editor of Nature Geosciences)  
19 Jun 2007  Harrison 209 Tuesday 12pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Forecast verification of extremes: Use of Extreme Value Theory  
Rick Katz (NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, USA)  
11 Jun 2007  Harrison 107 Monday 4pm  Applied Mathematics 
Evaluating the ability of a weather forecasting system to predict extremes should be an important consideration in forecast verification, particularly given the well known societal impacts of extreme events. Yet statistical methods devised for extreme values have only rarely been applied. // I adopt a distributionsoriented approach to forecast verification, making use of the calibrationrefinement factorization of the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. The exceedance of a high (or falling below a low) threshold by the weather variable is modeled by a conditional Poisson distribution, whose rate parameter is expanded as a function of the forecast. Likewise, the excess over a high (or deficit below a low) threshold of the weather variable is modeled by a conditional generalized Pareto distribution, whose scale parameter depends on the forecast. In this way, whether or not there is any skill (or how much skill exists) in forecasting weather extremes corresponds to determining whether or not (or to what extent) using the forecast as a covariate improves the fit (e.g., via a likelihood ratio test). // The proposed method is applied to a set of specialized NWS minimum temperature forecasts and observations at Yakima, WA, USA. Because of the risk of damage to fruit buds from freezing during their development, these forecasts were made available to orchardists each spring.  
 
Unfolding of codimensiontwo grazingsliding bifurcations  
Piotr Kowalczyk (University of Exeter)  
5 Jun 2007  Harrison 209 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
A new global analysis of precipitation  
Mathew Sapiano (University of Maryland, USA)  
31 May 2007  Harrison 171 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Many merged multisource global analyses of precipitation exist, including the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis and the CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP). The multisource nature of these datasets allows them to use the best data available to produce the most accurate estimate of precipitation for any given place and time. However, this strength can lead to weaknesses in the form of discontinuities in the longer record, which raise questions regarding their suitability for trend analysis. Additionally, high latitude precipitation is poorly determined in these datasets since the available estimates originate from either gauges (which suffer from problems related to undercatch of solid precipitation) or satellite data (which exhibit large errors at high latitudes due to icecontamination issues). We aim to produce a new global analysis of precipitation using Optimum Interpolation (OI) that will overcome both of these issues by using the relatively long consistent precipitation record (~20 years) from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and forecast precipitation from the ERA40 reanalysis. An additional advantage of the OI methodology is its facility in the calculation of errors associated with the analysis, which are needed for most applications. I will start by showing results from an intercomparison of the several commonly used precipitation algorithms for SSM/I. Next I will discuss issues associated with the OI and show some early results from our analysis. Finally, I will describe our plans to extend the analysis back in time by using proxy records tied to the reanalysis precipitation and calibrated by the SSM/I data. Our goal is that this extended record of precipitation will be suitable for the assessment of changes in global precipitation in the latter part of the 20th Century at all latitudes.  
 
Stability of patterns for the complex GinzburgLandau equation  
Jorge Diosdado (CIMAT, Guanajuato, Mexico)  
29 May 2007  Harrison 209 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Aspects of feedbacks and forcing in stochastic dynamics  
Stuart Townley (University of Exeter)  
22 May 2007  Harrison 209 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
On the dynamics and adjustment of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation  
David Marshall (University of Oxford)  
21 May 2007  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
What controls the rate of mixing of passive scalars in smooth flows?  
Peter Haynes (DAMTP, University of Cambridge)  
14 May 2007  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Networks that draw networks or honeybees on scent  
Gabor Orosz (University of Exeter)  
8 May 2007  Harrison 209 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
A new asymptotic solution for stellar dynamo  
Dmitry Sokoloff (Moscow State University, Russia)  
30 Apr 2007  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
10th TAYLOR AND FRANCIS sponsored lecture. T&F are publishers of the Journal Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics  
 
Compressible convection in rapidly rotating spherical shells  
Kirill Kuzanyan (University of Leeds)  
24 Apr 2007  Harrison 209 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
The dynamics of the Antarctic slope front  
Peter Baines (Quantifying Earth Systems, QUEST, Earth Sciences, University of Bristol)  
23 Apr 2007  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
The precessiondriven dynamo in a plane layer  
Paul Roberts (IGPP, UCLA, USA)  
23 Mar 2007  Harrison 107 Friday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
9th TAYLOR AND FRANCIS sponsored lecture. T&F are publishers of the Journal Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics  
 
Interpolation by vectorvalued analytic functions, with applications to the controllability of linear systems  
Jonathan Partington (University of Leeds)  
15 Mar 2007  Harrison 215 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Parametric instability of the helical dynamo  
Marine Peyrot (LEGI, Grenoble)  
13 Mar 2007  Harrison 209 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Efficient data assimilation for spatially extended systems: a local ensemble transform Kalman filter  
Brian Hunt (University of Maryland, USA)  
12 Mar 2007  Harrison 107 Monday 4pm  Applied Mathematics 
8th TAYLOR AND FRANCIS sponsored lecture. T&F are publishers of the Journal Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics  
 
Exactly solvable problems for excitons in two dimensions  
Misha Portnoi (University of Exeter)  
6 Mar 2007  Harrison 209 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
The dynamics of deep convection and largescale tropical wave motion  
Glenn Shutts (Met office)  
5 Mar 2007  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Transient dynamics  are they just a passing trend or ... ?  
Stuart Townley (University of Exeter)  
27 Feb 2007  Harrison 209 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Are the fractal skeletons the explanation for the plankton paradox and the instent restenosis?  
Celso Grebogi (University of Aberdeen)  
26 Feb 2007  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Nature is permeated by phenomena in which active processes, such as chemical reactions and biological interactions, take place in environmental flows. They include the dynamics of growing populations of plankton in the oceans and the evolving distribution of ozone in the polar stratosphere. I will show that if the dynamics of active particles in flows is chaotic, then necessarily the concentration of particles have the observed fractal filamentary structures. These structures, in turn, are the skeletons and the dynamic catalysts of active processes, yielding an unusual singularly enhanced productivity. I will argue that this singular productivity could be the hydrodynamic explanation for the plankton paradox, in which an extremely large number of species are able to coexist, negating the competitive exclusion principle that asserts the survival of only the most perfectly adapted to each limiting resource. I will then suggest that the presence of such fractal skeletons in arterial flow could be the explanation for the eventual restenosis of arteries after a stentassisted angioplasty.  
 
Simulations of nonlinear porewater convection in spherical shells  
Zhifeng Dai (University of Exeter)  
20 Feb 2007  Harrison 209 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Quaternions and particle dynamics in the Euler equations  
John Gibbon (Imperial College London)  
19 Feb 2007  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Practical bifurcation analysis of piecewise smooth systems  
Daniel Pagano (University of Bristol)  
15 Feb 2007  Harrison 107 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
The lack of smoothness in these systems precludes the application of local analysis tools (so useful in differentiable dynamics) and then, as a consequence, the separation between local and global issues has a fuzzy character, if it actually exists. Therefore, the bifurcation analysis in this context turns out to be cumbersome and specific for each concrete case. We will show how to proceed in order to obtain bifurcation sets in representative families of planar Filippov systems, and comment the difficulties to overcome in nonsolved cases.  
 
Marginal stability of planetary convection and magnetism  
Sergey Starchenko (IZMIRAN, Troitsk, Russia)  
13 Feb 2007  Harrison 209 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Numerical methods for solving electromagnetic problems  
Jun Zou (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)  
12 Feb 2007  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
7th TAYLOR AND FRANCIS sponsored lecture. T&F are publishers of the Journal Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics  
 
Dynamo action in a helical pipe  
Leszek Zabielski (Warsaw University of Technology)  
5 Feb 2007  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Reduced atmospheric models using dynamically motivated basis functions  
Frank Kwasniok (University of Exeter)  
30 Jan 2007  Harrison 209 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Overcoming essential instabilities induced by coupling delay  
Jan Sieber (University of Aberdeen)  
29 Jan 2007  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Realistic tests in mechanical engineering often involve bidirectional realtime coupling between computer simulations and mechanical experiments. If this coupling occurs at a fixed joint then arbitrarily small delays in the coupling can result in an essential instability, that is, the linearization has infinitely many unstable eigenvalues. A general theorem (see, for example, the textbook of Hale/VerduynLunel) implies that this kind of instability is impossible to compensate. We discuss an approach that is potentially able to overcome this difficulty. This is joint work with Yuliya Kyrychko (Bristol).  
 
Nonlinear dynamics of lasers  
Sebastian Wieczorek (University of Exeter)  
23 Jan 2007  Harrison 203 Wednesday 1pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Solitons in photonic crystal fibers  
Dmitry Skryabin (University of Bath)  
22 Jan 2007  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Modelling atmospheres  
Beccy Mitchell, Dan Holdaway and James Kent  
19 Jan 2007  Harrison 107 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Data inversion in solar radio spectroscopy: application to the flares  
Gregory Fleishman (Ioffe PhysicoTechnical Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia)  
16 Jan 2007  Harrison 107 Wednesday 1pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Design of parametrically forced patterns  
Alastair Rucklidge (University of Leeds)  
15 Jan 2007  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Some dynamical systems without ergodicity  
Peter Ashwin (University of Exeter)  
9 Jan 2007  Harrison 107 Wednesday 1pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Equationfree modeling of inelastic collapse  
Mark Muldoon (University of Manchester)  
8 Jan 2007  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
A hard sphere gas whose particles collide inelastically lacks a straightforward hydrodynamic limit and its evolution is poorly described by PDEs. Such gasses undergo a socalled "inelastic collapse", after which most particles are confined to slowmoving, highdensity clusters. Here we apply the recent, "equationfree" methods of Kevrekides and collaboratorswhich combine short bursts of stochastic simulation with Eulerlike time steppingto a prototypical example of inelastic collapse, a onedimensional gas originally studied by Du, Li and Kadanoff.  
 
Solar differential rotation: a new proposal for the tachocline  
Michael McIntyre (DAMTP, University of Cambridge)  
4 Dec 2006  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Sediment transport above rippled beds  
Vanesa Magar (University of Plymouth)  
28 Nov 2006  Harrison 107 Wednesday 1pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Quadratic differential forms and (some of) their applications  
Paolo Rapisarda (University of Southampton)  
27 Nov 2006  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Often when dealing with dynamical systems it is important to describe and analyze the interplay of dynamics and functionals of the variables of the system and their derivatives; for example, in the case of linear systems, quadratic functionals are of paramount importance in filtering, estimation, optimal control, etc. Recently, the formalization of these functionals using twovariable polynomial matrices has been proposed by Willems and Trentelman in a framework in which there is no need to use firstorder (i.e. state) representations of a dynamical system as it is customary to do, and one can work with descriptions of the dynamics in terms of systems of higherorder differential equations. In this talk the basic features and some applications of the calculus of these socalled quadratic differential forms are presented.  
 
The effect of mantle conductivity on the superrotating jets near the liquid core surface  
Konrad Bajer (Warsaw University, Poland)  
23 Nov 2006  Harrison 107 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Rapid mixing and other statistical properties of Lorenz attractors  
Mark Holland (University of Exeter)  
14 Nov 2006  Harrison 107 Wednesday 1pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
I will survey the statistical properties of Lorenz maps and Lorenz flows and in particular give details about the mixing properties of the classical Lorenz attractor (work in progress).  
 
Vortex multipoles and vortex quasimodes: the parallels and differences between coherent structures of fluids and plasmas  
Lorena Barba (University of Bristol)  
13 Nov 2006  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
A column of electrons surrounded by a conducting wall and confined by a strong magnetic field is an excellent manifestation of twodimensional vortices in an inviscid fluid. The equations governing the drift motion of a magnetized electron column are isomorphic to the Euler equations for incompressible, 2D flow. This isomorphism implies, for example, that surface charge perturbations on the electron column (called diocotron modes) are equivalent to surface waves on vortex columns (called Kelvin waves). In the plasma literature, a quasimode is a vorticity perturbation which is weakly damped, and behaves like it was a single azimuthally propagating wave on the vortex edge. In fluids, a multipole is an arrangement of two or more peaks of vorticity which is compact, coherent and longlived. The topology of quasimodes and multipoles can appear quite similar. But, is there any inherent physical relationship between the core quasimodes, basically explained by wave phenomena, and the hydrodynamic multipoles, which are more readily explained by the nonlinear interaction of vorticity?  
 
Bringing mathematical insights to the climate change problem  
Peter Cox (University of Exeter)  
7 Nov 2006  Harrison 106 Wednesday 1pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Analytic invariants associated with a parabolic fixed point in C^2  
Vincent Naudot (University of Warwick)  
6 Nov 2006  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Near a parabolic fixed point 0 in R^2, a real analytic diffeomorhism can be embedded in a smooth autonomous flow. We show that in the complexanalytic case the situation is completely different. We construct 2 analytic invariants with respect to local analytic changes of coordinates. One invariant vanishes for time1 maps of analytic flows but generically not equal to 0.  
 
An efficient phasefield model for polycrystaline grain growth  
Prasad Patnaik (University of Exeter)  
31 Oct 2006  Harrison 106 Wednesday 1pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Slow flow between concentric cones  
Oskar Hall (University of Exeter)  
24 Oct 2006  Harrison 106 Wednesday 1pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
The helicity conservation in deltaOmega and alphadeltaOmega and its impact to eleven year solar torsional oscillations  
Valery Pipin (Institute SolarTerrestrial Physics, Irkutsk, Russia)  
23 Oct 2006  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
This is the 5th TAYLOR AND FRANCIS sponsored lecture. Taylor and Francis are the publishers of the Journal Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics.  
 
Asymptotic receptivity and the Parabolized Stability Equation: a combined approach to boundary layer transition  
Matthew Turner (University of Exeter)  
17 Oct 2006  Harrison 106 Wednesday 1pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Spatiotemporal epidemic modelling for public health protection  
Ian Hall (Health Protection Agency: Porton Down)  
16 Oct 2006  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Regulation of primary photosynthetic processes and problems of ecological monitoring  
Andrei Rubin (Moscow State University)  
10 Oct 2006  Harrison 106 Wednesday 1pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Connections between discrete control theory and numerical methods for ODEs  
Adrian Hill (University of Bath)  
9 Oct 2006  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
We write a general linear method for the numerical integration of ODEs as a discrete control system. The positive real lemma, the Ztransform and perturbation methods are used to explore the stability of such numerical methods.  
 
Numerical Rossby wave propagation on the Cgrid  
John Thuburn (University of Exeter)  
3 Oct 2006  Harrison 106 Wednesday 1pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Decay of correlations for Lorentz gases  
Ian Melbourne (University of Surrey)  
2 Oct 2006  Harrison 107 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Verifying deterministic forecasts of extreme events  
Chris Ferro (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading)  
25 Sep 2006  Harrison 254 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Forecast verification, the practice of assessing forecast quality, is difficult for at least two reasons when the event being forecasted is rare. First, sampling variability of quality measures may be high if only a small number of events has been observed. Second, many quality measures necessarily degenerate to trivial values as events become rarer. These problems will be mitigated by means of a statistical model based on extremevalue theory that quantifies the relationship between observations and forecasts. The model's two parameters can be interpreted as measures of forecast quality that do not degenerate with event rarity. The model also predicts the values of standard quality measures as event rarity increases. These model estimates are more efficient than evaluating the measures directly and show that different standard measures can indicate opposing changes in forecast quality as rarity increases. The model will be used to assess forecast quality for some extreme weather events.  
 
The dynamo bifurcation in rotating spheres  
Emmanuel Dormy (Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris)  
22 Sep 2006  Harrison 170 Friday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
This is the 4th TAYLOR AND FRANCIS sponsored lecture. Taylor and Francis are the publishers of the Journal Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics.  
 
Feel sick? Follow the money!  
Dr. Dirk Brockmann (MaxPlanckInstitute for Dynamics and SelfOrganization)  
22 Jun 2006  Harrison B74 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
In the light of increasing international trade, intensified human
mobility and an imminent influenza A epidemic the knowledge
of dynamical and statistical properties of human travel is of
fundamental importance. A quantitative assessment of these properties
on geographical scales still remains elusive and the assumption
that humans disperse diffusively still prevails in models. In 1998 Hank Eskin invented the internet game wheresgeorge.com, an online bill tracking system. The idea behind the game is simple. Users can register at the website, mark individual dollar bills, report them to the website, reenter them into circulation and subsequently monitor their geographic dispersal as other users make reports to the website. We have analysed the wheresgeorge.com dataset and used the dispersal of nearly half a million dollar bills as a proxy for human travel. We were thus able to assess the statistical properties of human travel with a high spatiotemporal precision. We found that dispersal is anomalous in two ways. First, the distribution of travelling distances decays as a power law, indicating that trajectories of bank notes are reminiscent of scale free random walks known as LÃ©vy flights. Secondly, the probability of remaining in a small, spatially confined region for a time T is dominated by algebraic tails which attenuate the superdiffusive spread. We were able to show that human travel can be described mathematically on many spatiotemporal scales by a two parameter continuous time random walk model to a surprising accuracy and conclude that human travel on geographical scales is an ambivalent effectively superdiffusive process.  
 
Periodicity in a system of two rotations (joint work with Anthony Quas)  
Prof Arek Goetz (San Francisco State University)  
13 Jun 2006  Harrison 170 Tuesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics 
 
Relating forced climate change to natural variability  
Owen KellieSmith  
23 May 2006  Harrison 106 Wednesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Link to slides  
 
The validity of Boussinesq and anelastic equation sets in convecting atmospheres: A normal mode analysis  
Rebecca Mitchell (Exeter)  
16 May 2006  Harrison LT6 Wednesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Delay induced dynamics of a nonlinear transmission line oscillator model  
David Barton (Bristol Centre for Applied Nonlinear Mathematics, University of Bristol)  
9 May 2006  Harrison LT6 Wednesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Pseudospectra  
Dominic McCarthy (UIniversity of Exeter)  
2 May 2006  Harrison LT6 Wednesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Dynamos in flows with cat's eyes  
Andrew D Gilbert (Exeter)  
25 Apr 2006  Harrison LT6 Wednesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Multistability in the Kuramoto model with synaptic plasticity  
Yuri Maistrenko (Institute of Medicin and Virtual Institute of Neuromodulation, Research Centre Jülich)  
28 Mar 2006  Harrison 106 Wednesday 11am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
A high order WENO finite difference scheme for incompressible fluids and magnetohydrodynamics  
Paul Roberts (IGPP, UCLA, USA)  
27 Mar 2006  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Sponsored by TAYLOR AND FRANCIS, publishers of the Journal Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics  
 
Computed eigenmodes of planar regions  
Nick Trefethen (University of Oxford)  
16 Mar 2006  Harrison 170 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Recently developed numerical methods make possible the highaccuracy computation of eigenmodes of the Laplacian for a variety of "drums" in two dimensions, or as some physicists prefer to call them, problems of "quantum billiards". A number of computed examples will be presented together with a discussion of their implications concerning bound and continuum states, symmetry and degeneracy, eigenvalue avoidance, resonance, localization, eigenvalue optimization, perturbation of eigenvalues and eigenvectors, and the problem of "can one hear the shape of a drum?".  
 
Dependence of magnetic field generation by convective flows in a plane layer on the kinematic Prandtl number  
Olga Podvigina (International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac.Sci.)  
14 Mar 2006  Harrison LT6 Tuesday 12pm  Applied Mathematics 
Sponsored by TAYLOR AND FRANCIS, publishers of the Journal Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics  
 
Dependence of magnetic field generation by convective flows in a plane layer on the kinematic Prandtl number  
Olga Podvigina (International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac.Sci.)  
14 Mar 2006  Harrison LT6 Wednesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Sponsored by TAYLOR AND FRANCIS, publishers of the Journal Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics  
 
Weakly nonlinear stability of convective hydromagnetic systems with insignificant alphaeffect in a plane rotating layer to perturbations involving large scales  
Vlad Zheligovsky (International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac.Sci.)  
7 Mar 2006  Harrison LT6 Tuesday 12pm  Applied Mathematics 
Sponsored by TAYLOR AND FRANCIS, publishers of the Journal Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics  
 
Weakly nonlinear stability of convective hydromagnetic systems with insignificant alphaeffect in a plane rotating layer to perturbations involving large scales  
Vlad Zheligovsky (International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac.Sci.)  
7 Mar 2006  Harrison LT6 Wednesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
Sponsored by TAYLOR AND FRANCIS, publishers of the Journal Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics  
 
Prehistoric demography and the spread of the Neolithic: Models based on radiocarbon dates  
Anvar Shukurov (University of Newcastle upon Tyne)  
6 Mar 2006  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
The dynamincs of coupled phase oscillators  
John Wordsworth (Exeter)  
28 Feb 2006  Harrison LT6 Wednesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Bifurcation and nonuniqueness of exact NavierStokes solutions: Is it consistent to neglect farfield boundaries?  
Rich Hewitt (University of Manchester)  
27 Feb 2006  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
The onset of almost adiabatic planetary convection  
Sergey Starchenko (Rybinsk State AvianTechnical Academy)  
23 Feb 2006  Harrison 170 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
JefferyHamel flow between two cones  
Oscar Hall (Exeter)  
21 Feb 2006  Harrison LT6 Wednesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Transport of momentum and particle in hydrodynamic and magnetohydrodynamic turbulence  
Eunjin Kim (University of Sheffield)  
20 Feb 2006  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Synchronization of globally coupled chaotic maps: clusters and quasiclusters  
Anastasiya Panchuk (NAS of Ukraine, Kiev)  
16 Feb 2006  Harrison 170 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
What on earth is a Normalized BiConjugate Minimum Residual Gradient Method?  A brief introduction to Krylov subspace methods"  
John Thuburn (Exeter)  
14 Feb 2006  Harrison LT6 Wednesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Describing and modeling biofilm mechanics  
Isaac Klapper (Montana State University)  
9 Feb 2006  Harrison 170 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Wave Train Solutions in Spherical Couette Flow  
Ed Blockley (Exeter)  
7 Feb 2006  Harrison LT6 Wednesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Finitedimensional attractors of randomlyforced PDEs  
David Broomhead (University of Manchester)  
30 Jan 2006  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Nonlinear dynamics of warped accretion discs  
Gordon Ogilvie (University of Cambridge)  
23 Jan 2006  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Approximate iterative methods for variational data assimilation  
Amos Lawless (University of Reading)  
16 Jan 2006  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Nucleation of localised 2D patterns  
David Lloyd (University of Surrey)  
9 Jan 2006  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Localised patterns have been observed in a variety of physical experiments from vibrated granular materials to nonlinear optics. We present the results of Umbanhowar et al. Nature 382 (1996) for the vibrated granular material problem and propose a new process for pattern formation and selection in 2dimensions. We demonstrate this new process by taking a toy model, namely the SwiftHohenberg equation. Taking our guidance from known 1D results, we develop analytical and numerical techniques to explore the nucleation of localised patterns in 2D. Finally, I present results showing the rich bifurcation structure of these patterns and suggest avenues for on going research.  
 
Understanding turbulence through the sequenceofbifurcation approach  
Fritz Busse (University of Bayreuth)  
8 Dec 2005  Harrison 170 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Bifurcations and heterocliniclike oscillations in highway traffic models with reactiontime delay  
Gabor Orosz (University of Exeter)  
22 Nov 2005  Harrison LT6 Tuesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Coupled systems: Theory and examples  
Marty Golubitsky (University of Houston)  
21 Nov 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
A coupled cell system is a collection of interacting dynamical systems. Coupled cell models assume that the output from each cell is important and that signals from two or more cells can be compared so that patterns of synchrony can emerge. We ask: How much of the qualitative dynamics observed in coupled cells is the product of network architecture and how much depends on the specific equations? The ideas will be illustrated through a series of examples and theorems. One theorem classifies spatiotemporal symmetries of periodic solutions and a second gives necessary and sufficient conditions for synchrony in terms of network architecture.  
 
Convectons  
Edgar Knobloch (University of California, Berkeley)  
17 Nov 2005  Harrison 170 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Recent simulations of binary fluid convection reveal the presence of multiple numerically stable spatially localized steady states we have called 'convectons'. These states consist of a finite number of rolls embedded in a nonconvecting background and are present at supercritical Rayleigh numbers. The convecton length decreases with decreasing Rayleigh number; below a critical Rayleigh number the convectons are replaced by relaxation oscillations in which the steady state is gradually eroded until no rolls are present (the slow phase), whereupon a new steady state regrows from small amplitude (the fast phase) and the process repeats. The SwiftHohenberg equation, both variational and nonvariational) provides much insight into this behaviour. This equation contains several classes of localized steady states whose length grows in a characteristic 'snaking' fashion as they approach spatially periodic states, and the associated dynamics resemble the binary fluid simulations. The origin of the snaking and the stability properties of the associated states will be elucidated, and the results used to shed light on the remarkable complexity of these simple systems.  
 
Climate Sensitivities via a FokkerPlanck Adjoint Approach  
John Thuburn (University of Exeter)  
15 Nov 2005  Harrison LT6 Tuesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Stability of magnetic flux tubes subject to external flows  
Antonio Ferriz Mas (Universidad de Vigo, Spain)  
14 Nov 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Uncertain Matrix Systems: From Pseudospectra to Kharitonov Theorems.  
Stuart Townley (Universty of Exeter)  
8 Nov 2005  Harrison LT6 Tuesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Metric approximations in global weather forecasting  
Andy White (Met. Office)  
7 Nov 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Weather forecasting by national meteorological centres such as the Met Office is guided by the output of numerical models of the atmosphere's motion and thermodynamics. Most centres use models based on the socalled hydrostatic primitive equations, which in a global context make an assumption of shallowness that involves neglect of part of the Coriolis force. Met Office models have been based on more accurate underlying equations since 1992, and on nonhydrostatic equations since 2002. Recent work has identified a hierarchy of consistent approximated equation sets that are at least as accurate as the hydrostatic primitive equations. The hierarchy includes the hydrostatic primitive equations themselves, the Met Office's equation sets, and a nonhydrostatic formulation used by the Canadian Environment Service. An equation set is said to be consistent if it possesses good conservation properties (for energy, angular momentum and potential vorticity) and if it can be directly derived from Lagrange's equations of motion. Four consistent formulations arise as two approximations are made or not made: (a) an assemblage of approximations known collectively as the shallow atmosphere approximation; (b) neglect of the time derivative in the vertical component of the momentum equation. These may be concisely regarded in terms of approximations of metrics  in one case, of metric factors that describe the assumed geometry, in the other case, of the velocity metric that appears in the definition of kinetic energy.  
 
Uncertainty Intervals, Stability and Kharitonovâ€™s Theorem  
Dominic McCarthy (University of Exeter)  
2 Nov 2005  Harrison LT6 Wednesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Spatiotemporal chaos in RayleighBenard convection  
Mike Cross (Caltech)  
31 Oct 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Uncertain Matrix Systems: From Pseudospectra to Kharitonov Theorems  
Stuart Townley (University of Exeter)  
25 Oct 2005  Harrison LT6 Tuesday 12 noon  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Twodimensional flows in slowly deforming domains  
Jacques Vanneste (University of Edinburgh)  
24 Oct 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Modelling of nucleation kinetics  
Lindsay Greer (University of Cambridge)  
20 Oct 2005  Harrison 170 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Most phase transitions proceed by growth from particular nucleation sites, which either appear sporadically or are predetermined. In recent decades great progress has been made in the quantitative analysis of growth kinetics, but nucleation remains notoriously difficult to model quantitatively. Yet nucleation is important in so many ways: not only in materials (casting of metals, transparency of polymers), but in medicine (CJD, kidney stones), environment (meteorology, crop damage). This presentation will introduce some of the issues in the mechanisms of nucleation, the consequences for how it is modelled and for mathematical techniques. There are, for example, nucleation phenomena that are in general understood, but where the complexity as yet precludes prediction of nucleation rates. Different forms of analysis may be needed at different length scales. Despite the difficulties, recent work shows that there are cases in which sound quantification and prediction are possible. Nucleation is often regarded as an intrinsically stochastic process, yet the recent work focuses on deterministic behaviour.  
 
Timestepping methods for linearly stiff systems  
Paul Matthews (University of Nottingham)  
10 Oct 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
The linked twist map approach to fluid mixing  
Rob Sturman (University of Bristol)  
3 Oct 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
The analytic structure of Euler flow  
Uriel Frisch (Observatoire de Nice)  
19 Sep 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Probabilistic aspects of recurrence in dynamical systems  
Sandro Vaienti (Luminy, Marseille)  
16 Sep 2005  Harrison B74 Friday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Where Strategic and Evolutionary Stability Depart  A Study of Minimal Diversity Games  
Dieter Balkenborg (Exeter (Economics))  
28 Jun 2005  Harrison 170 Tuesday 3.40pm  Applied Mathematics 
The paper is concerned with the connection between two different approaches to game theory: evolutionary game theory and equilibrium refinement. The literature on learning and evolution studies the evolution of simple forms of adaptive behaviour. It asks, for instance, under which conditions evolutionary selection or learning will in the long run lead to rational behaviour and Nash equilibrium.
In contrast, the literature on refinement presupposes highly rational individuals. Its starting point is the observation that many interesting games have Nash equilibria that are unconvincing as solutions to a game and that additional criteria are needed to refine among them. The most developed notion of equilibrium refinement is the concept of strategically stable sets of Nash equilibria as introduced by Kohlberg and Mertens and as further developed by Mertens. A number of papers indicate a strong connection between evolutionary and strategic stability. Recently De Michelis and Ritzberger have shown for a very general class of dynamics that model evolutionary or learning processes between different populations that an asymptotically stable Nash equilibrium component must contain a strategically stable set if its Euler characteristic is not zero. We ask whether, conversely, a strict equilibrium set containing a Mertens stable set must have nonzero Euler characteristic. We address this question for a special class of games that we call minimal diversity games. In a minimal diversity game each member of a team of I players must independently and simultaneously choose one of the numbers k=1,...,K. Each player gets payoff 1 if all players name the same number and payoff 0 otherwise. Minimal diversity games have two equilibrium components. One consists of an isolated mixed strategy Nash equilibrium where each player takes each choice with equal probability. The other consists of the set of efficient Nash equilibria where at least two players choose different pure strategies. The mixed strategy Nash equilibrium is strategically stable, but not evolutionary stable. The efficient component is shown to be a topological sphere of dimension (I1)*(K1)1. It has hence zero Euler characteristic iff it is odd dimensional, i.e. if I or K is odd. Therefore it contains a strategically stable set if it is an even dimensional sphere. For the cases I=2 and K odd we show that it does not contain a strategically stable set. Closely related (and proved with the same construction) is the fact that for nearby payoff perturbations of the game generically no trajectory of an evolutionary dynamic converges. It is not yet known whether the finding extend to other minimum diversity games with three of more players.  
 
Master equation approach to the study of phase change processes in data storage media  
Konstantin Blyuss (Exeter)  
28 Jun 2005  Harrison 170 Tuesday 4.30pm  Applied Mathematics 
The dynamics of crystallization in phasechange materials is investigated using a master equation approach. We develop a novel model using the thermodynamics of the processes involved. Some partial analytical results are obtained for the isothermal case and for large cluster sizes, but principally numerical simulations are used to investigate the model.  
 
Realtime dynamic substructuring: stability and Hopf bifurcation in a neutral delay differential system  
Yuliya Kyrychko (Bristol)  
28 Jun 2005  Harrison 170 Tuesday 1.30pm  Applied Mathematics 
Realtime dynamic substructuring is a powerful testing method which brings together analytical, numerical and experimental tools for the study of complex structures. It consists of replacing one part of the experimental structure with a numerical model, connected by a transfer system. In order to provide reliable results, the hybrid system has to remain stable during the whole test. One of the problems with the method is the presence of delay due to several technical factors. This delay can lead to destabilization and failure. In this talk we consider a hybrid system, consisting of a pendulum attached to a massspringdamper. The latter is replaced by a numerical model and the transfer system is an actuator. The model we use is a system of two coupled second order neutral delay differential equations. We carry out a stability analysis of the system and identify possible regions of instability and the number of stability switches depending on parameters and delay time. Using the parameters from a real experiment, we perform numerical simulations which confirm our analytical findings, and show regions of periodic and quasiperiodic behaviour.  
 
Robustness tools in ecology  
Stuart Townley (Exeter)  
28 Jun 2005  Harrison 170 Tuesday 2.20pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
A conservation of fragility law and its consequences for biochemical network dynamics  
Jorge Gonçalves (Cambridge University)  
19 May 2005  Harrison 170 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Robustness is a defining feature of successful complex systems. In this talk I will describe a fundamental limit on the robustness of complex systems achievable through feedback control. Based on a generic formulation of the control problem, we define /fragility/ in terms of the sensitivity of an output to a disturbance and derive an integral constraint (lowerbound) on the net fragility of a system. Put simply, reducing the sensitivity to disturbances at one range of frequencies by feedback control will necessarily amplify disturbances at other frequencies. For the special case of linear feedback systems, this result reduces to Bode's integral formula. We illustrate the implications of this robustness tradeoff for biological systems, and identify feedforward control and buffering as strategies for ameliorating the tradeoff. Finally, the theory provides an alternate interpretation of Shannon's channel capacity theorem for nonlinear control systems.  
 
Inaugural Lecture: The mathematical basis for numerical weather and climate models: past successes; future challenges  
John Thuburn (University of Exeter)  
9 May 2005  XFI centre  Monday 6pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
A unifying explanation of the transition to seizure states via a model of Human EEG  
John Terry (Loughborough)  
28 Apr 2005  Harrison 209 Thursday 4pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Terascale simulation using bytesize pieces  
Lee Margetts (University of Manchester)  
25 Apr 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
On phase transitions in coupled map lattices  
Wolfram Just (Queen Mary University of London)  
14 Mar 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Coupled map lattices are a paradigm for studying fundamental questions in spatially extended dynamical systems. Within this tutorial we focus on qualitative changes of the motion which are intimately related with the limit of large system size. Similar to equilibrium phase transitions, such qualitative changes are an ubiquitous feature of dynamical systems with a large number of degrees of freedom. Within the first part we present an overview and some phenomenological facts of phase transitions in coupled map lattices. The following two parts describe in some details analytical tools which are useful for understanding phase transition behaviour in dynamical systems beyond plain numerical simulations. We explain how coupled map lattices are linked with the canonical equilibrium physics of spin systems when techniques of symbolic dynamics are applied. Using a simple model we explain how coupled map lattices are linked with phase transitions in equilibrium spin models. In the last part we describe an alternative approach in terms of kinetic spin models linking the dynamics of coupled map lattices with equilibrium and nonequilibrium statistical mechanics.  
 
A model for the pure bending of isotropic tubes: localized buckling and the Brazier effect  
Khurram Wadee (University of Exeter)  
14 Mar 2005  Harrison 106 Monday 10am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Using a dynamical systems approach to study the dyanmics of model reference adaptive control systems  
David Wagg (University of Bristol)  
7 Mar 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Nonlinear dynamo action in hydrodynamic instabilities driven by shear  
Pu Zhang (University of Exeter)  
7 Mar 2005  Harrison 106 Monday 10am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
A simple model of the dynamics of sudden stratospheric warmings  
Gavin Esler (University College London)  
28 Feb 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
How to compute using globally coupled oscillators  
Jon Borresen (University of Exeter)  
28 Feb 2005  Harrison 106 Monday 10am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Slumping of granular media  
Rich Kerswell (University of Bristol)  
21 Feb 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Mixing of passive scalars in Baker's maps  
Andrew Gilbert (University of Exeter)  
21 Feb 2005  Harrison 106 Monday 10am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
A conservation of fragility law and its consequences for biochemical network dynamics (POSTPONED until 19 May)  
Jorge Gonçalves (Cambridge University)  
17 Feb 2005  Laver LT321 Thursday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Robustness is a defining feature of successful complex systems. In this talk I will describe a fundamental limit on the robustness of complex systems achievable through feedback control. Based on a generic formulation of the control problem, we define /fragility/ in terms of the sensitivity of an output to a disturbance and derive an integral constraint (lowerbound) on the net fragility of a system. Put simply, reducing the sensitivity to disturbances at one range of frequencies by feedback control will necessarily amplify disturbances at other frequencies. For the special case of linear feedback systems, this result reduces to Bode's integral formula. We illustrate the implications of this robustness tradeoff for biological systems, and identify feedforward control and buffering as strategies for ameliorating the tradeoff. Finally, the theory provides an alternate interpretation of Shannon's channel capacity theorem for nonlinear control systems.  
 
Synchronization in Kuramotolike model of globally coupled oscillators  
Alexander Burilko (Kiev)  
14 Feb 2005  Harrison 106 Monday 10am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Interactions between vortices, boundaries and bottom topography  
Ted Johnson (University College London)  
7 Feb 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Eddy scaling for poleward heat transport in Earth's atmosphere  
John Thuburn (UIniversity of Exeter)  
7 Feb 2005  Harrison 106 Monday 10am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Hilbert's 16th problem  some analytic and algebraic aspects  
Colin Christopher (University of Plymouth)  
31 Jan 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
The second part of Hilbert's 16th problem deals with the number of limit cycles of polynomial vector fields in the plane. It remains one of the few of the original 23 problems that have not been substantially solved over the past century. However, over the past twenty years or so, insights from the theory of foliations and algebraic geometry as well as improved analytic techniques have brought many new advances to our understanding of this old problem. My aim in the talk is to give a brief survey of some of these recent advances as well as the many open questions which surround the study of polynomial vector fields in the plane.  
 
Quasigeostrophic approximation revisited  
Keke Zhang (University of Exeter)  
31 Jan 2005  Harrison 106 Monday 10am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Highdimensional chaos in the Kuramoto model  
Yuri Maistrenko (Kiev)  
24 Jan 2005  Harrison 106 Monday 10am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Corner eddies: new variations on an old theme  
Keith Moffatt (Cambridge University)  
17 Jan 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Dynamics of delayed relay systems  
Jan Sieber (University of Bristol)  
10 Jan 2005  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
TBA  
Achim Ilchmann (Ilmenau, Germany)  
10 Dec 2004  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
A numerical scheme for stochastics PDEs  
Gabriel Lord (HeriotWatt University)  
6 Dec 2004  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
New Effects in MeanField Magnetic Dynamos  
Igor Rogachevskii (BenGurion University, BeerSheva, Israel)  
3 Dec 2004  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Rates of mixing in hyperbolic flows  
Mike Field (University of Houston, USA)  
29 Nov 2004  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
TBA  
Paolo Rapisarda (University of Southampton)  
27 Nov 2004  Harrison 254 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Stellar differential rotation  
Guenther Rudiger (Potsdam, Germany)  
26 Nov 2004  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
This seminar has been cancelled owing to illness  
 
Unpredictability in population dynamics  
Josef Hofbauer (University College London)  
22 Nov 2004  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Quasigeostrophic approximation revisited  
Keke Zhang (Mathematical Sciences)  
19 Nov 2004  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
This seminar has been postponed until early in the new year  date to be advised  
 
Different limiting mechanisms for nonlinear dynamos  
Dave Galloway (University of Sydney, Australia)  
15 Nov 2004  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Piecewise Isometric Disk Packings and the Arbelos  
Marcello Trovati (Mathematical Sciences)  
12 Nov 2004  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Cycling cycles: Dynamics near a heteroclinic network  
Claire Postlethwaite (Cambridge University)  
8 Nov 2004  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
The role of inertia in the evolution of spherical dynamos  
Binod Sreenivasan (Mathematical Sciences)  
5 Nov 2004  Harrison LT3 Wednesday 2pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
How long can left and right handed life forms coexist?  
Axel Brandenburg (NORDITA, Copenhagen, Denmark)  
1 Nov 2004  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Zonal flows and magnetic fields in laboratory plasmas  
Pat Diamond (University of California, San Diego, USA)  
25 Oct 2004  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
A mechanism of solar variability influence on climate  
Alexander Ruzmaikin (JPL, Pasadina, USA)  
18 Oct 2004  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Matrix functions: Theory and algorithms  
Nick Higham (University of Manchester)  
11 Oct 2004  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
The slowfast myth in geophysical fluid dynamics  
David Dritschel (University of St Andrews)  
4 Oct 2004  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
A model of crosscontamination by wind in genetically modified oilseed rape  
Martin Hoyle (Biological Sciences)  
24 Sep 2004  Harrison L40 Wednesday 11am  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Asymptotic structure of biological excitability equations  
Vadim Biktashev (University of Liverpool)  
8 Dec 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Nonlinear Schroedinger equations as models of superfluidity  
Natalia Berloff (Cambridge University)  
1 Dec 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Magnetic fields in numerical simulations of the interstellar medium  
Graeme Sarson (University of Newcastle)  
24 Nov 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Stability of Hamiltonian relative equilibria and applications to underwater vehicles  
Claudia Wulff (University of Surrey)  
17 Nov 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Qualitative behaviour of thin liquid metal layers at low magnetic Reynolds number  
Paul Dellar (Oxford University)  
10 Nov 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Robust control of 2D and 3D channel flow with CFD validation  
Eric Rogers (University of Southampton)  
3 Nov 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Renormalization in interval translation maps  
Henk Bruin (University of Surrey)  
27 Oct 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Formation of vortices and jets in rotating convection on a betaplane: Jupiter's belts and zones in the laboratory  
Peter Read (Oxford University)  
20 Oct 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Two MHD problems: Helical dynamos and the pulsar magnetosphere  
Jonathan Mestel (Imperial College)  
13 Oct 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Dynamics of impacting systems: Theory and experiments  
Marian Wiercigroch (Aberdeen University)  
6 Oct 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Strange attractors and their basins  
Yongluo Cao (Suzhou University)  
18 Sep 2003  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Quasipatterns in surface waves  
Alastair Rucklidge (Leeds University)  
10 Sep 2003  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Shape optimization for induction hardening  
Jan Sokolowski ('Henrie Poincare University, Nancy')  
11 Jul 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Dynamos and convection: mean flow generation  
Jon Rotvig (University of Exeter)  
13 Jun 2003  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Partial stability and stabilization. Part 2  
Reza Rokni Lamooki (University of Exeter)  
6 Jun 2003  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Partial stability and stabilization. Part 1: an introduction  
Reza Rokni Lamooki (University of Exeter)  
30 May 2003  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Integrability of Hamiltonian systems: from Poincare to Ziglin.  
Alexei Tsygvinstev (University of Exeter)  
19 May 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Pinching without branch points: new mechanism for absolute instability  
Jonathan Healey (Keele University)  
12 May 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Chaotic mixing and eigenfunctions  
JeanLuc Thiffeault (Imperial College)  
28 Apr 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Characterization of a family of tworoll mill flows  
Jonathan Kobine (University of Dundee)  
17 Mar 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
The structure of periodic causal operators on L^{2}  
George Weiss (Imperial College London)  
10 Mar 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Energy, helicity and crossing number relations for complex flows  
Renzo Ricca (University College London)  
3 Mar 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Nonlinear waves in diverging flows  
Rich Kerswell (University of Bristol)  
24 Feb 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Parametrisation of attractors and Takens embedding thereom  
James Robinson (University of Warwick)  
17 Feb 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
The application of the method of matched asymptotic expansions to problems arising in reactiondiffusion theory  
John Leach (University of Reading)  
10 Feb 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Revisiting scaling laws for the magnetic and velocity fields  
Glenn Ierley (University of California San Diego)  
31 Jan 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
MarangoniBenard convection in square and almost square containers  
Edgar Knobloch (University of Leeds)  
27 Jan 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Instabilities of the Stewartson layer  
Rainer Hollerbach (University of Glasgow)  
20 Jan 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Transient vortex events in turbulence  
Bob Kerr (University of Warwick)  
13 Jan 2003  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Zonal flows on Jupiter  
Chris Jones (University of Exeter)  
13 Dec 2002  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
New observational constraints on the geodynamo  
Richard Holme (University of Liverpool)  
9 Dec 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Nature of torsional oscillations in the solar convection zone  
Reza Tavakol ('Queen Mary, University of London')  
2 Dec 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Some bifurcation results for differentialalgebraic equations  
Robert Beardmore (Imperial College)  
25 Nov 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
A new proof of the uniqueness of elastic surface waves  
Yibin Fu (University of Keele)  
18 Nov 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Validity of various approximations of the fullycompressible atmospheric equation as inferred from normalmode analysis  
'Andrew Staniforth, Terry Davies and Nigel Wood' (Met Office)  
11 Nov 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Magnetic fields in barred galaxies  
David Moss (University of Manchester)  
4 Nov 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Magnetic damping of surface gravity waves  
Binod Sreenivasan (University of Exeter)  
1 Nov 2002  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Virial functional in fluid mechanics  
Vladimir Vladimirov (Univeristy of Hull)  
28 Oct 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Impulse differential inclusions: Towards a viability theory of hybrid systems  
John Lygeros (University of Cambridge)  
21 Oct 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
A new test for chaos in deterministic nonlinear dynamical systems  
Ian Melbourne (University of Surrey)  
14 Oct 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Fractal asymptotics  
Carl Dettmann (University of Bristol)  
7 Oct 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
On the relationship between the discrete and continuous Painleve equations  
Peter Clarkson (University of Kent)  
10 Jun 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Explicitly timedependent alphaquenching  
Axel Brandenburgh (NORDITA)  
27 May 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Stochastic population dynamics  
Xuerong Mao (University of Strathclyde)  
13 May 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Quantum monodromy  
Holger Dullin (Loughborough University)  
29 Apr 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Composition convection due to the decrease of the rapidly rotating shell  
Serguey Starchenko (GFO Borok)  
22 Apr 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Shear and magnetic buoyancy instabilities in the solar tachocline  
Steve Tobias (University of Leeds)  
11 Mar 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Vortex equilibria of the Euler equations  
Darren Crowdy (Imperial College)  
4 Mar 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Thin layer theories  
Richard Craster (Imperial College)  
25 Feb 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Localisation of patterns in convection  
Stephen Cox (University of Nottingham)  
18 Feb 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Pattern selection and symmetry in rotating RayleighBenard convection  
Jon Dawes (University of Cambridge)  
11 Feb 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
The role of the heating mode of the mantle in intermittent reorganisation of plate velocities  
Julian Lowman (University of Leeds)  
4 Feb 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
MHD in metallurgical processes  
Peter Davidson (University of Cambridge)  
28 Jan 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Fast dynamo problem  
Oleg Kozlovski (University of Warwick)  
21 Jan 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Jets, waves and vortices in the Jovian atmosphere POSTPONED  
Yasuhiro Yamazaki (University of Oxford)  
14 Jan 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Deterministic and random products of Euclidean transformations CANCELLED  
Ian Melbourne (University of Surrey)  
7 Jan 2002  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Global bifurcation to travelling waves in spherical Couette flow  
Andrew Soward (University of Exeter)  
7 Dec 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Adaptive controllers and the gap metric  
Mark French (University of Southampton)  
3 Dec 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
A new generation of geodynamo models  
Keke Zhang (University of Exeter)  
30 Nov 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Oscillations in small aspect ratio magnetoconvection  
Mike Proctor (University of Cambridge)  
26 Nov 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Nonlinear models of rotating spherical convection  
Steve Cole (University of Exeter)  
23 Nov 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Galactic magnetic fields  
Steven Cowley (Imperial College)  
19 Nov 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Hopf bifurcation with the symmetry of the cube  
Pete Ashwin (University of Exeter)  
16 Nov 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Particles in a random field  
Andrew Stuart (University of Warick)  
12 Nov 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Some issues in stochastic control  
Stuart Townley (University of Exeter)  
9 Nov 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Shear propagation into the solar radiative zone  
Pascale Garaud (University of Cambridge)  
5 Nov 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Energy fluxes and dissipation in planetary cores  
Chris Jones (University of Exeter)  
2 Nov 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Statistics, symmetry and skew products  
Mike Field (University of Houston)  
29 Oct 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Vorticity, mixing and motion  
Andrew Gilbert (University of Exeter)  
26 Oct 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Kinematic dynamos at high magnetic Reynolds number  
Graeme Sarson (University of Newcastle upon Tyne)  
22 Oct 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Scaling properties of spatial and temporal spectra of the geomagnetic field  
Roberta Tozzi (Rome)  
19 Oct 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Weak disjointness in topological dynamics  
Xiangdong Ye (University of Science and Technology of China)  
25 Sep 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Numerical modelling of star formation  
Matthew Bate (University of Exeter (Physics))  
15 Jun 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Packing properties of invariant disks for some planar piecewise isometries  
XinChu Fu (University of Exeter)  
8 Jun 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Quantum turbulence in superfluid helium  
Tomasz Lipniacki (University of Warsaw)  
1 Jun 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Evolution of sharp edged planar vortices  
Ian Hall (University of Exeter)  
25 May 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Routes to chaos, channel capacity and the representation of numbers in noninteger bases'  
Paul Glendinning (UMIST)  
21 May 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Instabilities induced by the differentially rotating inner core and mantle  
Pu Zhang (University of Exeter)  
18 May 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Chaotic Dynamics in Semiconductor Lasers  
Pieter Collins (University of Liverpool)  
14 May 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Fourier series on spheres  
Paul Earnshaw (University of Exeter)  
11 May 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
'Numerical exterior algebra, with applications in hydrodynamic stability and dynamical systems'  
Tom Bridges (University of Surrey)  
23 Apr 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Dynamics of a SigmaDelta modulator as a piecewise isometry  
Jonathan Deane (University of Surrey)  
30 Mar 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
'Typical magnetoconvection values in the interiors of Jupiter, Saturn and the Earth'  
Sergey Starchenko ('GFO Barok, Russia')  
13 Mar 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Modulating pulse solutions for a class of nonlinear wave equations  
Mark Groves (University of Loughborough)  
12 Mar 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
MHD shear layers in spherical Couette flow  
Andrew Soward (University of Exeter)  
9 Mar 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Stochastic bifurcation: concepts and examples  
Ludwig Arnold ('Universitat Bremen')  
5 Mar 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
Part of the %http://www.maths.ex.ac.uk/Research/applDSC/events/ndc.html%Southern Bifurcation Meeting%  
 
Quasiinvariant sets in Piecewise Isometries  
Miguel Mendes (University of Surrey)  
2 Mar 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Neutral Rayleigh waves in HagenPoiseuille flow  
Andrew Walton (Imperial College)  
26 Feb 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Nonorientable manifolds in threedimensional vector fields  
Hinke Osinga (University of Exeter)  
23 Feb 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Receptivity of boundary layers to freestream disturbances  
Paul Hammerton (University of East Anglia)  
19 Feb 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Convection in a semiinfinite layer above a flat plate  
Andrew Bassom (University of Exeter)  
16 Feb 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
'Dynamo action in the stretch, fold, shear model'  
Andrew Gilbert (University of Exeter)  
9 Feb 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
The magnetorotational instability in a Couettetype flow  
Wolfgang Dobler (University of Newcastle upon Tyne)  
5 Feb 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
The anatomy of some nonholonomic oscillators  
Ciprian Coman (University of Exeter)  
2 Feb 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Rotational instabilities of contained fluids; laboratory experiments and applications to the Earth's core  
Keith Aldridge (York University, Canada)  
29 Jan 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Using constrained variational techniques to improve numerical weather prediction  
Ian Roulstone (University of Reading)  
22 Jan 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Bifurcations in nonlinear dynamos driven by ABC forcing  
Olga Podvigina (University of Moscow)  
19 Jan 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
%http://www.maths.ex.ac.uk/~PAshwin/workshop_15_1_01.html%Dynamics and Intermittency%  
(WORKSHOP)  
15 Jan 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
 
Multiscale spaceperiodic kinematic dynamos  
Vlad Zheligovsky (University of Moscow)  
12 Jan 2001  Harrison 106 Wednesday 3pm  Applied Mathematics (Internal) 
 
Is intermittency that nonlinear?  
Sergei Nazarenko (University of Warwick)  
8 Jan 2001  Harrison 170 Monday 2pm  Applied Mathematics 
