|
|
|
|
|
Thanks for help from the following colleagues: |
|
|
|
|
What exactly is it ? |
|
What makes it tick ? |
|
How well can it be forecast ? |
|
How does it affect things ? |
|
|
|
|
Druck Schwankungen |
|
Northern Oscillation |
|
North Atlantic Oscillation |
|
Arctic Oscillation |
|
Annular mode |
|
Not the Arctic Oscillation |
|
Al Moubarak |
|
El Nao |
|
Le YoYo Meteo |
|
Northern Wazaaaaaa ! |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
“The
relationships between weather over the Earth are so complex that it seems
useless to try to derive them from theoretical considerations; and the only
hope at present is that of ascertaining the facts and of arranging them in
such a way that interpretation shall be possible.” (1908) |
|
|
|
|
Saabye 1770-8 |
|
Teisserence de Bort 1883 |
|
Hann 1890 |
|
Hildebrandsson 1897 |
|
Meinardus 1898 |
|
Pettersson 1905 |
|
Exner 19?? |
|
Walker 1908, 1924, 1932 |
|
Defant 1924 |
|
Loewe 1937 |
|
Van Loon and Rogers 1978 |
|
+ many others … |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tropospheric processes ? |
|
Stratospheric processes ? |
|
Oceanic processes ? |
|
Coupled processes ? |
|
Anthropogenic forcing ? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NAO = some trends + a lot of noise |
|
X(t) f(t) e(t) |
|
|
|
Persistent trend part f(t) gives some skill. |
|
Amount of skill depends on the lead time ! |
|
Even low skill may be very useful ! |
|
Impacts can lag NAO à e.g. wheat quality |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
“Those who have knowledge, do not predict, |
|
Those
who predict, do not have
knowledge.” |
|
Lao Tzu |
|
Chinese philospher 604-531 B.C |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Surface conditions |
|
Physical environment |
|
Terrestrial ecosystems |
|
Marine ecosystems |
|
Human activities |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OA26.03 Climate Variability |
|
“The Northern Oscillations: NAO and AO” |
|
|
|
European Geophysical Society |
|
XXVI General Assembly |
|
25-30 March 2001 Nice, France |
|
|
|
Deadline for abstracts 1 Dec 2000 !!! |
|
More information: www.copernicus.org |
|
|
|
|
|
Notes