21
(c) 2000
D.B.Stephenson@reading.ac.uk
How well can we forecast it ?
NAO = some trends + a
lot of noise
X(t) f(t) e(t)
•Persistent trend part f(t) gives some skill.
•Amount of skill depends on the lead time !
•Even low skill may be very useful !
•Impacts can lag NAO à e.g. wheat quality