The North Atlantic Oscillation
| Thanks for help from the following colleagues: |
Some important NAO questions …
| What exactly is it ? | |
| What makes it tick ? | |
| How well can it be forecast ? | |
| How does it affect things ? |
| Druck Schwankungen | |
| Northern Oscillation | |
| North Atlantic Oscillation | |
| Arctic Oscillation | |
| Annular mode | |
| Not the Arctic Oscillation | |
| Al Moubarak | |
| El Nao | |
| Le YoYo Meteo | |
| Northern Wazaaaaaa ! | |
"“The relationships between weather..."
| “The relationships between weather over the Earth are so complex that it seems useless to try to derive them from theoretical considerations; and the only hope at present is that of ascertaining the facts and of arranging them in such a way that interpretation shall be possible.” (1908) |
Early history of NAO research …
| Saabye 1770-8 | |
| Teisserence de Bort 1883 | |
| Hann 1890 | |
| Hildebrandsson 1897 | |
| Meinardus 1898 | |
| Pettersson 1905 | |
| Exner 19?? | |
| Walker 1908, 1924, 1932 | |
| Defant 1924 | |
| Loewe 1937 | |
| Van Loon and Rogers 1978 | |
| + many others … | |
NAO related
publications
1980-2000
Wintertime SLP
Variability
SLP Anomalies Dec/Jan/Feb (1988-1997)
NAO varies on all time scales …
Power spectrum of daily NAO 1948-2000
| Tropospheric processes ? | |
| Stratospheric processes ? | |
| Oceanic processes ? | |
| Coupled processes ? | |
| Anthropogenic forcing ? |
| NAO = some trends + a lot of noise | |
| X(t) f(t) e(t) | |
| Persistent trend part f(t) gives some skill. | |
| Amount of skill depends on the lead time ! | |
| Even low skill may be very useful ! | |
| Impacts can lag NAO à e.g. wheat quality | |
Persistence in the NAO Time Series
| “Those who have knowledge, do not predict, | |
| Those who predict, do not have knowledge.” | |
| Lao Tzu | |
| Chinese philospher 604-531 B.C | |
| Surface conditions | |
| Physical environment | |
| Terrestrial ecosystems | |
| Marine ecosystems | |
| Human activities |
NAO and the sex life of Scandinavian ungulates
| OA26.03 Climate Variability | |
| “The Northern Oscillations: NAO and AO” | |
| European Geophysical Society | |
| XXVI General Assembly | |
| 25-30 March 2001 Nice, France | |
| Deadline for abstracts 1 Dec 2000 !!! | |
| More information: www.copernicus.org | |