Chris Ferro's Publication Page


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2020

Allen S, Ferro CAT, Kwasniok F (2020) Recalibrating wind speed forecasts using regime-dependent heteroscedastic censored regression. Submitted.

2019

Allen S, Ferro CAT, Kwasniok F (2019) Regime-dependent statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, in press, doi: 10.1002/qj.3638 [link]

Ben Bouallegue Z, Ferro CAT, Leutbecher M, Richardson DS (2019) Predictive verification for the design of partially exchangeable multi-model ensembles. Tellus A, in press, doi: 10.1080/16000870.2019.1697165 [link]

Siegert S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Leutbecher M (2019) The ensemble-adjusted ignorance score for forecasts issued as normal distributions. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145(S1), 129-139, doi: 10.1002/qj.3447 [link]

2017

Ferro CAT (2017) Measuring forecast performance in the presence of observation error. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143, 2665-2676, doi: 10.1002/qj.3115 [link]

Mitchell K, Ferro CAT (2017) Proper scoring rules for interval probabilistic forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143, 1597-1607, doi: 10.1002/qj.3029 [link]

2016

Ferro CAT (2016) Contribution to the discussion of 'Of quantiles and expectiles: consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings' by W Ehm et al. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 78, 533-534. [open access]

Sansom PG, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Goddard L, Mason SJ (2016) Best practices for post-processing ensemble climate forecasts, part I: selecting appropriate recalibration methods. Journal of Climate, 29, 7247-7264, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0868.1 [link]

2015

Mason SJ, Ferro CAT, Landman WA (2015) Forecasts of 'normal'. Submitted.

Otto FEL, Ferro CAT, Fricker TE, Suckling EB (2015) On judging the credibility of climate predictions. Climatic Change, 132, 47-60, doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0813-5. [open access]

Watson J, Challinor AJ, Fricker TE, Ferro CAT (2015) Comparing the effects of calibration and climate errors on a statistical crop model and a process-based crop model. Climatic Change, 132, 93-109, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1264-3 [open access]

2014

Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Roberts NM, Ferro CAT (2014) The value of high-resolution Met Office regional climate models in the simulation of multi-hourly precipitation extremes. Journal of Climate, 27, 6155-6174, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00723.1 [open access]

Economou T, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT (2014) Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 8, 2223-2246, doi: 10.1214/14-AOAS766 [link]

Ferro CAT (2014) Fair scores for ensemble forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140, 1917-1923, doi: 10.1002/qj.2270 [link]

Williams RM, Ferro CAT, Kwasniok F (2014) A comparison of ensemble post-processing methods for extreme events. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140, 1112-1120, doi: 10.1002/qj.2198. [pdf] [link]

2013

Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB (2013) Does increasing spatial resolution improve the simulation of UK daily precipitation in a regional climate model? Climate Dynamics, 41, 1475-1495, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1568-9. [pdf] [link]

Fricker TE, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB (2013) Three recommendations for evaluating climate predictions. Meteorological Applications, 20, 246-255, doi: 10.1002/met.1409. [open access]

Goddard L, Kumar A, Solomon A, Smith D, Boer G, Gonzalez P, Deser C, Mason SJ, Kirtman BP, Msadek R, Sutton R, Hawkins E, Fricker T, Kharin S, Merryfield W, Hegerl G, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Meehl GA, Stockdale T, Burgman R, Greene AM, Kushnir Y, Newman M, Carton J, Fukumori I, Vimont D, Delworth T (2013) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Climate Dynamics, 40, 245-272, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2. [preprint] [link]

Hawkins E, Fricker TE, Challinor AJ, Ferro CAT, Ho CK, Osborne TM (2013) Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s. Global Change Biology, 19, 937-947, doi:10.1111/gcb.12069. [link]

Sansom PG, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT, Zappa G, Shaffrey L (2013) Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments. Journal of Climate, 26, 4017-4037, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00462.1. [link]

Yip S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Hawkins E (2013) Reply to comments on 'A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions'. Journal of Climate, 26, 4377-4377, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00858.1. [link]

2012

Ferro CAT (2012) Contribution to the discussion of 'Log-optimal economic evaluation of probability forecasts' by DJ Johnstone. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, 175, 661-689, doi:10.1111/j.1467-985X.2011.01011.x. [link]

Ferro CAT, Fricker TE (2012) A bias-corrected decomposition of the Brier score. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138, 1954-1960, doi:10.1002/qj.1924. [preprint] [link]

Ferro CAT, Jupp TE, Lambert FH, Huntingford C, Cox PM (2012) Model complexity versus ensemble size: allocating resources for climate prediction. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 370, 1087-1099, doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0307. [postprint] [link]

Ho CK, Stephenson DB, Collins M, Ferro CAT, Brown SJ (2012) Calibration strategies: a source of additional uncertainty in climate change projections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 21-26, doi:10.1175/2011BAMS3110.1. [pdf] [link]

2011

Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB (2011) Extremal Dependence Indices: improved verification measures for deterministic forecasts of rare binary events. Weather and Forecasting, 26, 699-713, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-10-05030.1. [pdf] [link]

Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB (2011) Deterministic forecasts of extreme events and warnings. In Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science (eds IT Jolliffe, DB Stephenson) 2nd edition. Wiley. ISBN 9780470660713.

Yip S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Hawkins E (2011) A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions. Journal of Climate, 24, 4634-4643, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4085.1. [pdf] [link]

2010

Hogan RJ, Ferro CAT, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB (2010) Equitability revisited: why the "equitable threat score" is not equitable. Weather and Forecasting, 25, 710-726, doi:10.1175/2009WAF2222350.1. [pdf] [link]

2009

Hanel M, Buishand TA, Ferro CAT (2009) A nonstationary index-flood model for precipitation extremes in transient regional climate model simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 114, D15107, doi:10.1029/2009JD011712. [preprint] [link]

Primo C, Ferro CAT, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB (2009) Calibration of probabilistic forecasts of binary events. Monthly Weather Review, 137, 1142-1149, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2579.1. [pdf] [link]

Robert CY, Segers J, Ferro CAT (2009) A sliding blocks estimator for the extremal index. Electronic Journal of Statistics, 3, 993-1020, doi:10.1214/08-EJS345. [link]

The following article appeared in Chaos and may be found at http://link.aip.org/link/?CHA/19/043127.

Vitolo R, Holland MP, Ferro CAT (2009) Robust extremes in chaotic deterministic systems. Chaos, 19 (4), doi:10.1063/1.3270389. [pdf] Copyright 2009 American Institute of Physics. This article may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the American Institute of Physics.

2008

Brown SJ, Caesar J, Ferro CAT (2008) Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 113, D05115, doi:10.1029/2006JD008091. [pdf] This paper was summarised in 'Research Highlights' in Nature Reports (April 2008) doi:10.1038/climate.2008.29.

Coelho CAS, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Steinskog DJ (2008) Methods for exploring spatial and temporal variability of extreme events in climate data. Journal of Climate, 21, 2072-2092. [preprint] [link]

Ferro CAT, Richardson DS, Weigel AP (2008) On the effect of ensemble size on the discrete and continuous ranked probability scores. Meteorological Applications, 15, 19-24, doi:10.1002/met.45. [pdf]

Stephenson DB, Casati B, Ferro CAT, Wilson CA (2008) The extreme dependency score: a non-vanishing verification score for deterministic forecasts of rare events. Meteorological Applications, 15, 41-50, doi:10.1002/met.53. [pdf]

2007

Beniston M and co-authors (2007) Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Climatic Change, 81, Supplement 1, 71-95. [pdf]

Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR, Craufurd PQ, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB (2007) Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 119, 190-204. [pdf]

Ferro CAT (2007) Comparing probabilistic forecasting systems with the Brier score. Weather and Forecasting 22, 1076-1088. [pdf] [R code]

Ferro CAT (2007) A probability model for verifying deterministic forecasts of extreme events. Weather and Forecasting, 22, 1089-1100. [pdf] [R code]

Shongwe ME, Ferro CAT, Coelho CAS, van Oldenborgh GJ (2007) Predictability of cold spring seasons in Europe. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 4185-4201. doi:10.1175/2007MWR2094.1 [pdf]

2006

Mailier PJ, Stephenson DB, Ferro CAT, Hodges KI (2006) Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones. Monthly Weather Review, 134, 2224-2240. [pdf] This paper was summarised in 'Papers of Note' in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 1317-1318. See also this article for a general audience that appeared in Planet Earth.

2005

Ferro CAT, Hannachi A, Stephenson DB (2005) Simple non-parametric techniques for exploring changing probability distributions of weather. Journal of Climate, 18, 4344-4354. [pdf]

Ferro CAT, Pezzulli S (2005) Rao-Blackwellised estimators for parameters of extreme-value models. Submitted. [pdf]

McGregor GR, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB (2005) Projected changes in extreme weather and climate events in Europe. In Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Public Health Responses (Eds W Kirch, B Menne, R Bertollini) p13-23. Dresden: Springer. 303pp [pdf]

2004

Ferro CAT (2004) Contribution to the discussion of 'A conditional approach for multivariate extreme values' by JE Heffernan and JA Tawn. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 66, 497-546.

Ferro CAT (2004) Statistical Methods for Clusters of Extreme Values. Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis, Lancaster University. [link]

Ferro CAT, Segers J (2004) Extremes of stationary time series. In Statistics of Extremes: Theory and Applications by J Beirlant, Y Goegebeur, J Segers and J Teugels. London: Wiley. [pdf]

2003

Ferro CAT, Segers J (2003) Inference for clusters of extreme values. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 65, 545-556.

2002

Ferro CAT, Segers J (2002) Automatic declustering of extreme values via an estimator for the extremal index. Technical Report 2002-025. EURANDOM, Eindhoven. [link]

Ferro CAT and Tawn JA (2002) Semi-parametric estimation of bivariate extreme-value densities. Submitted. [unavailable]


http://www.secam.ex.ac.uk/people/staff/ferro/publications.shtml