Dr Frank Kwasniok
Senior Lecturer in Applied Mathematics

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Publications

Refereed publications

  1. Kwasniok F. (2023):
    Robust extreme value analysis: the bulk matching method,
    to be published.

  2. Kwasniok F. (2023):
    Flow-dependent atmospheric predictability: finite-time Lyapunov exponents and weather regimes,
    to be published.

  3. Kwasniok F. (2023):
    The structure of predictability in an intermediate-complexity atmospheric model: covariant Lyapunov vectors and finite-time Lyapunov exponents,
    to be published.

  4. Kwasniok F. (2023):
    Data-driven modelling using non-Markovian optimal mode decomposition,
    to be published.

  5. Kwasniok F. (2023):
    Analysis and modelling of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse using non-autonomous dynamic and optimal mode decomposition,
    to be published.

  6. Kwasniok F. (2023):
    Probabilistic prediction of critical transitions,
    to be published.

  7. Wessel J., Ferro C. A. T., Kwasniok F. (2023):
    Lead-time-continuous statistical post-processing of ensemble weather forecasts,
    submitted.

  8. Kwasniok F. (2023):
    Semiparametric maximum likelihood reconstruction of stochastic differential equations driven by white and correlated noise,
    submitted.

  9. Allen S., Ferro C. A. T., Kwasniok F. (2023):
    A conditional decomposition of proper scores: quantifying the sources of information in a forecast,
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 149, 1704-1725. [link] [.pdf]

    Allen S., Ferro C. A. T., Kwasniok F. (2023):
    Erratum to 'A conditional decomposition of proper scores: quantifying the sources of information in a forecast',
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, accepted. [link] [.pdf]

  10. Kwasniok F. (2022):
    Linear inverse modeling of large-scale atmospheric flow using optimal mode decomposition,
    Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 79, 2181-2204. [link] [.pdf]

  11. Kwasniok F. (2021):
    Semiparametric maximum likelihood probability density estimation,
    PLoS ONE, 16, e0259111. [link] [.pdf]

    Supporting information:
    [S1 Appendix] [S2 Appendix] [S3 Appendix] [S4 Appendix]

  12. Allen S., Evans G. R., Buchanan P., Kwasniok F. (2021):
    Accounting for skew when post-processing MOGREPS-UK temperature forecast fields,
    Monthly Weather Review, 149, 2835-2852. [link] [.pdf]

  13. Allen S., Evans G. R., Buchanan P., Kwasniok F. (2021):
    Incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation into the post-processing of MOGREPS-G wind speed forecasts,
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147, 1403-1418. [link] [.pdf]

  14. Allen S., Ferro C. A. T., Kwasniok F. (2020):
    Recalibrating wind-speed forecasts using regime-dependent ensemble model output statistics,
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146, 2576-2596. [link] [.pdf]

  15. Allen S., Ferro C. A. T., Kwasniok F. (2019):
    Regime-dependent statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts,
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145, 3535-3552. [link] [.pdf]

  16. Kwasniok F. (2019):
    Fluctuations of finite-time Lyapunov exponents in an intermediate-complexity atmospheric model: a multivariate and large-deviation perspective,
    Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 26, 195-209. [link] [.pdf]

  17. Kwasniok F., Beaumont R., Thuburn J. (2019):
    Vortex dynamics of stratospheric sudden warmings: A reanalysis data study using PV contour integral diagnostics,
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145, 1013-1033. [link] [.pdf]

    Kwasniok F., Beaumont R., Thuburn J. (2019):
    Erratum to 'Vortex dynamics of stratospheric sudden warmings: A reanalysis data study using PV contour integral diagnostics',
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145, 3359. [link] [.pdf]

  18. Kwasniok F. (2018):
    Detecting, anticipating, and predicting critical transitions in spatially extended systems,
    Chaos, 28, 033614. [link] [.pdf]

  19. Beaumont R., Kwasniok F., Thuburn J. (2017):
    Vortex erosion in a shallow water model of the polar vortex,
    Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 78, 137-151. [link] [.pdf]

  20. Kwasniok F. (2015):
    Forecasting critical transitions using data-driven nonstationary dynamical modeling,
    Physical Review E, 92, 062928. [link] [.pdf]

  21. Thomas Z. A., Kwasniok F., Boulton C. A., Cox P. M., Jones R. T., Lenton T. M., Turney C. S. M. (2015):
    Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions,
    Climate of the Past, 11, 1621-1633. [link] [.pdf]

  22. Kwasniok F. (2014):
    Enhanced regime predictability in atmospheric low-order models due to stochastic forcing,
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 372, 20130286. [link] [.pdf]

  23. Williams R. M., Ferro C. A. T., Kwasniok F. (2014):
    A comparison of ensemble post-processing methods for extreme events,
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140, 1112-1120. [link] [.pdf]

  24. Kwasniok F. (2013):
    Predicting critical transitions in dynamical systems from time series using nonstationary probability density modeling,
    Physical Review E, 88, 052917. [link] [.pdf]

  25. Kwasniok F. (2013):
    Analysis and modelling of glacial climate transitions using simple dynamical systems,
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 371, 20110472. [link] [.pdf]

  26. Kwasniok F., Lohmann G. (2012):
    A stochastic nonlinear oscillator model for glacial millennial-scale climate transitions derived from ice-core data,
    Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 595-603. [link] [.pdf]

  27. Kwasniok F. (2012):
    Estimation of noise parameters in dynamical system identification with Kalman filters,
    Physical Review E, 86, 036214. [link] [.pdf]

  28. Kwasniok F. (2012):
    Data-based stochastic subgrid-scale parametrization: an approach using cluster-weighted modelling,
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 370, 1061-1086. [link] [.pdf]

  29. Livina V. N., Kwasniok F., Lohmann G., Kantelhardt J. W., Lenton T. M. (2011):
    Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present,
    Climate Dynamics, 37, 2437-2453. [link] [.pdf]

  30. Livina V. N., Kwasniok F., Lenton T. M. (2010):
    Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr,
    Climate of the Past, 6, 77-82. [link] [.pdf]

  31. Kwasniok F., Lohmann G. (2009):
    Deriving dynamical models from paleoclimatic records: Application to glacial millennial-scale climate variability,
    Physical Review E, 80, 066104. [link] [.pdf]

  32. Kwasniok F. (2008):
    Regime prediction and predictability in nonlinear dynamical systems,
    European Physical Journal Special Topics, 165, 35-44. [link] [.pdf]

  33. Kwasniok F. (2007):
    Reduced atmospheric models using dynamically motivated basis functions,
    Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64, 3452-3474. [link] [.pdf]

  34. Harle M., Kwasniok F., Feudel U. (2006):
    Growth of finite errors in ensemble prediction,
    Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 13, 167-176. [link] [.pdf]

  35. Kwasniok F., Smith L. A. (2004):
    Real-time construction of optimized predictors from data streams,
    Physical Review Letters, 92, 164101. [link] [.pdf]

  36. Kwasniok F. (2004):
    Empirical low-order models of barotropic flow,
    Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 61, 235-245. [link] [.pdf]

  37. Kwasniok F., Schmitz G. (2003):
    Radiating instabilities of internal inertio-gravity waves,
    Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 60, 1257-1269. [link] [.pdf]

  38. Kwasniok F. (2001):
    Low-dimensional models of the Ginzburg-Landau equation,
    SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, 61, 2063-2079. [link] [.pdf]

  39. Kwasniok F. (1997):
    Low-dimensional models of complex systems using principal interaction patterns,
    Nonlinear Analysis, 30, 489-494. [link] [.pdf]

  40. Kwasniok F. (1997):
    Optimal Galerkin approximations of partial differential equations using principal interaction patterns,
    Physical Review E, 55, 5365-5375. [link] [.pdf]

  41. Kwasniok F. (1996):
    The reduction of complex dynamical systems using principal interaction patterns,
    Physica D, 92, 28-60. [link] [.pdf]

  42. Kwasniok F. (1995):
    Surface dynamics of hexagonal close-packed metals,
    Surface Science, 329, 90-100. [link] [.pdf]