Dr Frank Kwasniok
Senior Lecturer in Applied Mathematics

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Publications

Refereed publications

  1. Kwasniok F. (2024):
    Robust extreme value analysis: the bulk matching method,
    to be published.

  2. Kwasniok F. (2024):
    Flow-dependent atmospheric predictability: finite-time Lyapunov exponents and weather regimes,
    to be published.

  3. Kwasniok F. (2024):
    The structure of predictability in an intermediate-complexity atmospheric model: covariant Lyapunov vectors and finite-time Lyapunov exponents,
    to be published.

  4. Kwasniok F. (2024):
    Data-driven deterministic and stochastic subgrid-scale parameterization for atmosphere and ocean models: a pattern-based approach,
    to be published.

  5. Kwasniok F. (2024):
    Data-driven analysis and modelling of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse using non-autonomous dynamic and optimal mode decomposition,
    to be published.

  6. Wessel J. B., Ferro C. A. T., Evans G. R., Kwasniok F. (2024):
    Improving probabilistic forecasts of extreme wind speeds by training statistical post-processing models with weighted scoring rules,
    Monthly Weather Review, in revision. [link]

  7. Kwasniok F. (2024):
    Semiparametric maximum likelihood reconstruction of stochastic differential equations driven by white and correlated noise,
    Chaos, accepted.

  8. Lembo V., Bordoni S., Bevacqua E., Domeisen D. I. V., Franzke C. L. E., Galfi V. M., Garfinkel C., Grams C. I., Hochman A., Jha R., Kornhuber K., Kwasniok F., Lucarini V., Messori G., Pappert D., Perez-Fernandez I., Riboldi J., Russo E., Shaw T. A., Strigunova I., Strnad F., Yiou P., Zagar N. (2024):
    Dynamics, statistics and predictability of Rossby waves, heatwaves and spatially compounded extreme events,
    Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, accepted. [link] [.pdf]

  9. Wessel J. B., Ferro C. A. T., Kwasniok F. (2024):
    Lead-time-continuous statistical postprocessing of ensemble weather forecasts,
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150, 2147-2167. [link] [.pdf]

  10. Allen S., Ferro C. A. T., Kwasniok F. (2023):
    A conditional decomposition of proper scores: quantifying the sources of information in a forecast,
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 149, 1704-1725. [link] [.pdf]

    Allen S., Ferro C. A. T., Kwasniok F. (2023):
    Erratum to 'A conditional decomposition of proper scores: quantifying the sources of information in a forecast',
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 3765. [link] [.pdf]

  11. Kwasniok F. (2022):
    Linear inverse modeling of large-scale atmospheric flow using optimal mode decomposition,
    Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 79, 2181-2204. [link] [.pdf]

  12. Kwasniok F. (2021):
    Semiparametric maximum likelihood probability density estimation,
    PLoS ONE, 16, e0259111. [link] [.pdf]

    Supporting information:
    [S1 Appendix] [S2 Appendix] [S3 Appendix] [S4 Appendix]

  13. Allen S., Evans G. R., Buchanan P., Kwasniok F. (2021):
    Accounting for skew when post-processing MOGREPS-UK temperature forecast fields,
    Monthly Weather Review, 149, 2835-2852. [link] [.pdf]

  14. Allen S., Evans G. R., Buchanan P., Kwasniok F. (2021):
    Incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation into the post-processing of MOGREPS-G wind speed forecasts,
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147, 1403-1418. [link] [.pdf]

  15. Allen S., Ferro C. A. T., Kwasniok F. (2020):
    Recalibrating wind-speed forecasts using regime-dependent ensemble model output statistics,
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146, 2576-2596. [link] [.pdf]

  16. Allen S., Ferro C. A. T., Kwasniok F. (2019):
    Regime-dependent statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts,
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145, 3535-3552. [link] [.pdf]

  17. Kwasniok F. (2019):
    Fluctuations of finite-time Lyapunov exponents in an intermediate-complexity atmospheric model: a multivariate and large-deviation perspective,
    Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 26, 195-209. [link] [.pdf]

  18. Kwasniok F., Beaumont R., Thuburn J. (2019):
    Vortex dynamics of stratospheric sudden warmings: A reanalysis data study using PV contour integral diagnostics,
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145, 1013-1033. [link] [.pdf]

    Kwasniok F., Beaumont R., Thuburn J. (2019):
    Erratum to 'Vortex dynamics of stratospheric sudden warmings: A reanalysis data study using PV contour integral diagnostics',
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145, 3359. [link] [.pdf]

  19. Kwasniok F. (2018):
    Detecting, anticipating, and predicting critical transitions in spatially extended systems,
    Chaos, 28, 033614. [link] [.pdf]

  20. Beaumont R., Kwasniok F., Thuburn J. (2017):
    Vortex erosion in a shallow water model of the polar vortex,
    Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 78, 137-151. [link] [.pdf]

  21. Kwasniok F. (2015):
    Forecasting critical transitions using data-driven nonstationary dynamical modeling,
    Physical Review E, 92, 062928. [link] [.pdf]

  22. Thomas Z. A., Kwasniok F., Boulton C. A., Cox P. M., Jones R. T., Lenton T. M., Turney C. S. M. (2015):
    Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions,
    Climate of the Past, 11, 1621-1633. [link] [.pdf]

  23. Kwasniok F. (2014):
    Enhanced regime predictability in atmospheric low-order models due to stochastic forcing,
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 372, 20130286. [link] [.pdf]

  24. Williams R. M., Ferro C. A. T., Kwasniok F. (2014):
    A comparison of ensemble post-processing methods for extreme events,
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140, 1112-1120. [link] [.pdf]

  25. Kwasniok F. (2013):
    Predicting critical transitions in dynamical systems from time series using nonstationary probability density modeling,
    Physical Review E, 88, 052917. [link] [.pdf]

  26. Kwasniok F. (2013):
    Analysis and modelling of glacial climate transitions using simple dynamical systems,
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 371, 20110472. [link] [.pdf]

  27. Kwasniok F., Lohmann G. (2012):
    A stochastic nonlinear oscillator model for glacial millennial-scale climate transitions derived from ice-core data,
    Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19, 595-603. [link] [.pdf]

  28. Kwasniok F. (2012):
    Estimation of noise parameters in dynamical system identification with Kalman filters,
    Physical Review E, 86, 036214. [link] [.pdf]

  29. Kwasniok F. (2012):
    Data-based stochastic subgrid-scale parametrization: an approach using cluster-weighted modelling,
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 370, 1061-1086. [link] [.pdf]

  30. Livina V. N., Kwasniok F., Lohmann G., Kantelhardt J. W., Lenton T. M. (2011):
    Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present,
    Climate Dynamics, 37, 2437-2453. [link] [.pdf]

  31. Livina V. N., Kwasniok F., Lenton T. M. (2010):
    Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr,
    Climate of the Past, 6, 77-82. [link] [.pdf]

  32. Kwasniok F., Lohmann G. (2009):
    Deriving dynamical models from paleoclimatic records: Application to glacial millennial-scale climate variability,
    Physical Review E, 80, 066104. [link] [.pdf]

  33. Kwasniok F. (2008):
    Regime prediction and predictability in nonlinear dynamical systems,
    European Physical Journal Special Topics, 165, 35-44. [link] [.pdf]

  34. Kwasniok F. (2007):
    Reduced atmospheric models using dynamically motivated basis functions,
    Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64, 3452-3474. [link] [.pdf]

  35. Harle M., Kwasniok F., Feudel U. (2006):
    Growth of finite errors in ensemble prediction,
    Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 13, 167-176. [link] [.pdf]

  36. Kwasniok F., Smith L. A. (2004):
    Real-time construction of optimized predictors from data streams,
    Physical Review Letters, 92, 164101. [link] [.pdf]

  37. Kwasniok F. (2004):
    Empirical low-order models of barotropic flow,
    Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 61, 235-245. [link] [.pdf]

  38. Kwasniok F., Schmitz G. (2003):
    Radiating instabilities of internal inertio-gravity waves,
    Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 60, 1257-1269. [link] [.pdf]

  39. Kwasniok F. (2001):
    Low-dimensional models of the Ginzburg-Landau equation,
    SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, 61, 2063-2079. [link] [.pdf]

  40. Kwasniok F. (1997):
    Low-dimensional models of complex systems using principal interaction patterns,
    Nonlinear Analysis, 30, 489-494. [link] [.pdf]

  41. Kwasniok F. (1997):
    Optimal Galerkin approximations of partial differential equations using principal interaction patterns,
    Physical Review E, 55, 5365-5375. [link] [.pdf]

  42. Kwasniok F. (1996):
    The reduction of complex dynamical systems using principal interaction patterns,
    Physica D, 92, 28-60. [link] [.pdf]

  43. Kwasniok F. (1995):
    Surface dynamics of hexagonal close-packed metals,
    Surface Science, 329, 90-100. [link] [.pdf]